Vale S.A (VALE) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AR · Market cap 24.9T ARS
Fair value as of: Aug 7, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 7, 2026, revised from 18.62 ARS to 16,644 ARS (+89,290.2%) since Jul 21, 2026. Share price −3.1% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 42% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (15,055 ARS). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (15,055 ARS to 29,075 ARS) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1,205 ARS – 13,060 ARS · fair‑value band 15,055 ARS – 29,075 ARS · the 11,690 ARS price screens below the 16,644 ARS fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 7, 2026.
Analysis
Vale S.A (VALE) currently trades at 11,690 ARS, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 16,644 ARS, implying the stock looks roughly 42.4% undervalued today. We read business quality at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Vale S.A generated revenue of 215B ARS at a net margin of 7.3%. Revenue grew 2.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.8%. Net debt stands at 13.8B ARS. Fundamentals as of Aug 7, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 15,055 ARS (bear case) to 29,075 ARS (bull case); at 11,690 ARS, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 122% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at 42%, VALE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (17,292 ARS) versus Earnings-Based (7,810 ARS). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Vale S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces iron ore and nickel in Brazil, Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania. The company operates in two segments, Iron Ore Solutions and Vale Base Metals.
Full company description
Vale S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces iron ore and nickel in Brazil, Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania. The company operates in two segments, Iron Ore Solutions and Vale Base Metals. It extracts, produces, and distributes iron ore, iron ore pellets, briquettes, nickel, copper, other ferrous products, and by-products, including gold, silver, cobalt, platinum-group metals, and other base metals, as well as low-carbon critical minerals. The company also operates logistics systems and distribution centers, such as mining complexes, railways, and maritime terminals, ports, and ships; generates energy from hydroelectric, solar, and wind sources; and engages in greenfield mineral exploration. In addition, it is involved in research; and trading activities. The company was formerly known as Companhia Vale do Rio Doce and changed its name to Vale S.A. in May 2009. Vale S.A. was founded in 1942 and is headquartered in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Vale S.A reported revenue of 38.4B ARS in FY2025 versus 54.5B ARS in FY2021, a compound −8.4%/yr. Reported net income was 2.4B ARS in FY2025, compounding −43.1%/yr from FY2021.
Watch VALE: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 477 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 7, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHPN | 1,425 MXN | 942.42 MXN | -34% |
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$164.89 | A$81.76 | -50% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB | 199.23 MXN | 187.72 MXN | -6% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 58.05 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -42% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥18.20 | ¥16.15 | -11% |
| Fortescue Ltd FMG | A$18.47 | A$18.62 | +1% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥74.71 | ¥9.55 | -87% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹521.95 | ₹576.80 | +11% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥39.56 | ¥10.59 | -73% |
| Korea Zinc Company 010130 | 1,043,000 KRW | 646,063 KRW | -38% |
Compare Vale S.A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Basic Materials stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Vale S.A (VALE) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of VALE?
What is the quality score of VALE?
What is the revenue of Vale S.A (VALE)?
What is the net profit margin of VALE?
Does Vale S.A pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Vale S.A and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.