Vale SA (VALE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Vale SA is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.51 – $17.82 · fair‑value band $5.61 – $12.34 · the $14.15 price screens above the $8.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 22, 2026.
Vale S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces iron ore and nickel in Brazil, Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania. The company operates in two segments, Iron Ore Solutions and Vale Base Metals.
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Vale S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces iron ore and nickel in Brazil, Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania. The company operates in two segments, Iron Ore Solutions and Vale Base Metals. It extracts, produces, and distributes iron ore, iron ore pellets, briquettes, nickel, copper, other ferrous products, and by-products, including gold, silver, cobalt, platinum-group metals, and other base metals, as well as low-carbon critical minerals. The company also operates logistics systems and distribution centers, such as mining complexes, railways, and maritime terminals, ports, and ships; generates energy from hydroelectric, solar, and wind sources; and engages in greenfield mineral exploration. In addition, it is involved in research; and trading activities. The company was formerly known as Companhia Vale do Rio Doce and changed its name to Vale S.A. in May 2009. Vale S.A. was founded in 1942 and is headquartered in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.
Stock analysis
Vale SA ADR (VALE) currently trades at $14.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.95, implying the stock looks roughly 58.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $11.23 per share, and 6 of the 24 models we run sit above the $14.15 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.29, and 18 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $5.61 (bear) to $12.34 (bull), the price of $14.15 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Vale SA ADR reported revenue of $38.2B in FY2025 versus $54.5B in FY2021, a compound −8.5%/yr. Reported net income was $2.5B in FY2025, compounding −42.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $60.5B · P/E ratio 21.4 · P/S ratio 1.39 · EPS (TTM) $0.6600 · Dividend yield 9.9% · Net margin 6.5% · Return on equity 6.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 18.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 72% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −37%, VALE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.61Fair Value $8.95Bull $12.34
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.7%
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+10.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−27% vs 3%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 28%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 462 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−49% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Above median
Return on assets8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)28% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)9.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.61× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)21.4× · Pricier than median
P/FCF20.5× · Pricier than median
PEG0.33× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)14· sector 38
PAST (return on equity)27· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)69· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 30
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vale SA ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VALE
Frequently asked questions
Is Vale SA (VALE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.95 versus a price of $14.15, about −37% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VALE?
Our model-based fair value for Vale SA ADR is $8.95 (as of Sep 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.15.
What is the quality score of VALE?
Vale SA ADR has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vale SA (VALE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.95 (as of Sep 22, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.61, optimistic scenario $12.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vale SA ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.95, about −37% upside versus a price of $14.15 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.61, optimistic scenario $12.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Vale SA ADR pay a dividend?
Vale SA ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.88% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Vale SA (VALE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vale SA ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +10.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.7 % per year. As of Sep 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VALE use?
Our models discount Vale SA ADR at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.73, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vale SA ADR that is +10.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Vale SA (VALE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Vale SA ADR grew -0.7 % a year. The price currently implies +10.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Vale SA (VALE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vale SA ADR (+10.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Vale SA (VALE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.04 %: that much free cash flow Vale SA ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Vale SA (VALE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vale SA ADR it is $8.95 per share (as of Sep 22, 2026), against a price of $14.15. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vale SA ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 22, 2026, VALE trades above its calculated fair value: price $14.15, fair value $8.95, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VALE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.95). For Vale SA ADR the two are $5.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vale SA ADR worth?
The market values Vale SA ADR at about $60.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 22, 2026). Per share that is $14.15; our models calculate a fair value of $8.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VALE?
Our models span a range for Vale SA ADR: cautious scenario $5.61, base $8.95, optimistic $12.34 per share (as of Sep 22, 2026, price $14.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VALE?
Vale SA ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.4 (as of Sep 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $8.95 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.3.
What is the PEG ratio of VALE?
The PEG ratio of Vale SA ADR is 0.33 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 22, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vale SA (VALE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vale SA ADR (as of Sep 22, 2026): return on equity 6.8%, debt of 0.61 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VALE from its 52-week high?
Vale SA ADR trades at $14.15, about 21% below its 52-week high of $17.94 and 72% above the low of $8.24 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vale SA ADR?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BHP Group, Vale S.A, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vale SA ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 22, 2026: price $14.15, calculated fair value $8.95 (−37%), Quality Score 55/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VALE calculated?
We run Vale SA ADR through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $8.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Vale SA ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vale SA (VALE)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was $14.15. Our model-based fair value is $8.95, about −37% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vale SA ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($12.34). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($5.61 to $12.34) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Vale SA (VALE) come from?
Earnings per share at Vale SA ADR grew +12.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.1 %, EBIT margin +3.9 %, tax rate +3.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Vale SA ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Vale SA (VALE)?
The market capitalisation of Vale SA ADR is $60.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vale SA (VALE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vale SA ADR is 1.39 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vale SA (VALE)?
Earnings per share at Vale SA ADR are $0.6600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Vale SA (VALE)?
The dividend yield of Vale SA ADR is 9.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Vale SA (VALE)?
The net margin of Vale SA ADR is 6.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vale SA (VALE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vale SA ADR is 6.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vale SA (VALE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vale SA ADR is 18.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vale SA (VALE)?
The operating margin of Vale SA ADR is 28.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vale SA (VALE)?
Revenue at Vale SA ADR is growing +2.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vale SA (VALE)?
Earnings per share at Vale SA ADR are growing +22.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Vale SA (VALE) carry?
The net debt of Vale SA ADR is $12.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 22, 2026