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STOCK COMPARISON

MP Materials vs Valero Energy: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how MP Materials (M2PM34) and Valero Energy (VLO) compare, as of Sep 25, 2026.

As of Sep 25, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees MP Materials as the less overvalued of the two: MP Materials trades at BRL 51.19 versus a fair value of BRL 20.15 (-61%), while Valero Energy trades at $383 versus $127 (-67%).
MP Materials
M2PM34.SA · BRL · Materials
-61%
upside to fair value
overvalued
PriceBRL 51.19
Fair ValueBRL 20.15
Quality37/100
Valero Energy
VLO · USD · Energy
-67%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$383
Fair Value$127
Quality66/100
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Head-to-head numbers

Green is the better side of a row, red the weaker one (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper). Grey rows are for reference only and are not scored.

betterweakerfor reference, not scored

MP MaterialsValero Energy
Valuation
n/aP/E (TTM)27.5×
5.06×P/S (TTM)0.99×
0.73×P/B4.90×
n/aEV/EBITDA13.2×
n/aPEG4.08×
−60.6%Fair value upside−66.7%
n/aDividend yield1.2%
n/aDividend per share$4.59
Profitability
-8%Operating margin6%
-4%Return on equity16%
-2%Return on assets6%
Growth
119%Revenue growth (YoY)7%
-19.5%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)-11.4%
n/aAvg. growth/yr (5Y)13.6%
n/aValue creation/yr+14.5%
Balance & size
n/aInterest coverage (EBIT/interest)7.8×
0.40×Debt / equity0.41×
$2BMarket cap$116B
weakGrowth qualitymixed
Valuation multiples (P/E, P/S, P/B, EV/EBITDA) are shown but not scored here: the two companies sit in different sectors, and multiples only compare fairly between similar business models. PEG stays scored, as it relates the P/E to growth.

Valero Energy leads: 2 to 4 metric wins.

n/a = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

MP Materialsof which business quality 37 · market factors 14 Valero Energyof which business quality 64 · market factors 91
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
4
43
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
75
36
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
29
61
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
69
63
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
0
100
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
0
74
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
27
100
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
8
94
Net IssuanceShare count: buybacks or dilution?
42
100

What the models say

How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.

above the price, more than 15% above close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price below the price, more than 15% below

Model familyMP MaterialsPrice BRL 51.19Valero EnergyPrice $383
DCF Modelsn/a-35%below the price$250
Earnings-Basedn/a-73%below the price$103
Multiplesn/a-65%below the price$134
Asset-Based-82%below the priceBRL 9.00-86%below the price$53.53
Growth DCFn/a-16%below the price$321
Economic Profitn/a-70%below the price$113
Growth Earningsn/a-69%below the price$119
Minimum-82%below the priceBRL 9.00-86%below the price$53.53
Maximum-82%below the priceBRL 9.00-16%below the price$321
Median-82%below the priceBRL 9.00-69%below the price$119
Geometric mean-82%below the priceBRL 9.00-65%below the price$135

Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.

MP Materials: 1 of 1 models see the stock below the current price.

Valero Energy: 22 of 24 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear scenario to the optimistic bull scenario. The white tick is the current price (value above it), the green tick the fair value (value below it): if the price sits left of the fair value, there is room to rise.

MP Materials
Price BRL 51.19
Fair Value BRL 20.15
Bear BRL 13.30Bull BRL 25.18
Valero Energy
Price $383
Fair Value $127
Bear $89.58Bull $165

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

MP Materials · Materials

Quality score37 · bottom 25%
Fair value upside-61% · bottom 25%

Valero Energy · Energy

Quality score66 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-67% · bottom 25%

Bottom line

As of Sep 25, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees MP Materials as the less overvalued of the two: MP Materials trades at BRL 51.19 versus a fair value of BRL 20.15 (-61%), while Valero Energy trades at $383 versus $127 (-67%).

Valero Energy has the higher quality score (66/100).

Open MP Materials live analysis →
MP Materials · Valero Energy

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.