Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $91.9B
Valero Energy Corporation
VLO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Share price +13.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 58% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 73/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($165.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range ($89.58 to $165.05) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $51.77 – $314.80 · fair‑value band $89.58 – $165.05 · the $302.99 price screens above the $127.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) currently trades at $302.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $127.32, implying the stock looks roughly 58.0% overvalued today. We read business quality at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Valero Energy Corporation generated revenue of $118B at a net margin of 3.6%. Revenue grew 6.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.9%. Net debt stands at $7.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $89.58 (bear case) to $165.05 (bull case); at $302.99, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 143% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -58%, VLO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($259.99) versus Asset-Based ($53.53). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 89
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol.
Full company description
Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. The company produces California Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CARBOB) and Conventional Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CBOB) gasolines, CARB diesel, diesel, jet fuel, heating oil, and asphalt; feedstocks; aromatics; sulfur and residual fuel oil; intermediate oils; and sulfur, sweet, and sour crude oils. It sells its refined products through wholesale rack and bulk markets; and through outlets under the Valero, Beacon, Diamond Shamrock, Shamrock, Ultramar, and Texaco brands. The company also owns and operates renewable diesel and ethanol plants, as well as produces and sells renewable diesel, renewable naphtha, and neat sustainable aviation fuel under the Diamond Green Diesel brand name. In addition, it offers ethanol and various co-products, including dry distillers grains, syrup, and inedible distillers corn oil to animal feed customers. The company was formerly known as Valero Refining and Marketing Company and changed its name to Valero Energy Corporation in August 1997. Valero Energy Corporation was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Valero Energy Corporation reported revenue of $123B in FY2025 versus $114B in FY2021, a compound +1.9%/yr. Reported net income was $2.3B in FY2025, compounding +26.1%/yr from FY2021.
VLO screens 58% overvalued. Compare with Reliance Industries Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 114 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE | ₹1,293 | ₹835.66 | -35% |
| Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC | $283.74 | $135.80 | -52% |
| Phillips 66 PSX | $196.16 | $101.04 | -48% |
| Neste Oyj NESTE | €31.10 | €4.07 | -87% |
| Formosa Petrochemical Corporation 6505 | 81.30 TWD | 16.68 TWD | -79% |
| Indian Oil Corporation IOC | ₹138.96 | ₹417.35 | +200% |
| HF Sinclair Corporation DINO | $88.59 | $48.90 | -45% |
| Bharat Petroleum Corporation BPCL | ₹315.55 | ₹846.81 | +168% |
| SK Innovation Co 096770 | 121,400 KRW | 58,865 KRW | -52% |
| Sunoco LP, SUN | $74.00 | $53.36 | -28% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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