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STOCK COMPARISON

Marathon Petroleum vs Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (PBR) compare, as of Oct 19, 2026.

As of Oct 19, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA as the more attractively valued of the two: Marathon Petroleum trades at $478 versus a fair value of $110 (−77.0%), while Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA trades at $26.00 versus $28.71 (+10.4%).
Marathon Petroleum
MPC · USD · Energy
−77.0%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$478
Fair Value$110
Quality61/100
Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA
PBR · USD · Energy
+10.4%
upside to fair value
undervalued
Price$26.00
Fair Value$28.71
Quality62/100
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Head-to-head numbers

Green is the better side of a row, red the weaker one (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper). Grey rows are for reference only and are not scored.

betterweakerfor reference, not scored

Marathon PetroleumPetroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA
Valuation
16.6×P/E (TTM)5.5×
44.7×P/E ex one-offs (FY2025)5.5×
10.1×Forward P/E (FY2027)6.5×
1.31×P/S (TTM)0.31×
8.04×P/B2.21×
15.7×EV/EBITDA0.8×
0.90×PEG4.33×
−77.0%Fair value upside+10.4%
0.8%Dividend yield11.5%
$4.00Dividend per share$2.99
Profitability
13.6%Operating margin44.7%
n/aEBIT margin trend (5Y)1.05×
42.1%Return on equity30.3%
6.9%Return on assets9.0%
Growth
53.7%Revenue growth (YoY)42.3%
-9.2%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)-10.0%
13.7%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)11.1%
+39.8%Value creation/yr+26.4%
Balance & size
4.1×Interest coverage (EBIT/interest)201.2×
1.76×Debt / equity0.32×
$139BMarket cap$167B
weakGrowth qualityweak
The P/E excluding one-off items is scored. For Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA no documented adjusted P/E is available, so its reported P/E is shown there. The trailing P/E is shown for reference.
Forward P/E: price divided by the analyst consensus for the first fiscal year that has not started yet. The current year carries special items from quarters already reported. Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA: FY 2026 earnings estimate probably distorted by a special item known to analysts (4.41 is not between the FY 2025 actual of 2.68 and the FY 2027 estimate of 3.99).

Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA leads: 4 to 10 metric wins.

Group holding company: MPC (69 %) consolidates subsidiaries in full but owns only the stated share. Revenue, EBITDA and margin ratios are therefore restated for its own shareholders; earnings per share, P/E and return on equity already were.

n/a = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

Marathon Petroleum Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA
ProfitabilityHow much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
53
60
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns getting better?
35
48
CashflowDo the profits arrive as real cash?
50
71
Financial strengthDebt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
33
50
InvestmentDoes it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
99
52
Low VolatilityHow calm the share price moves, does not count
76
78
MomentumPrice trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
100
93
Near the 52-week highDistance to the 52-week high, does not count
99
100
New sharesBuys back shares or issues new ones?
100
84

What the models say

How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.

above the price, more than 15% above close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price below the price, more than 15% below

Model familyMarathon PetroleumPrice $478Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SAPrice $26.00
DCF Models−69.9%below the price$144+23.3%above the price$32.07
Earnings-Based−84.6%below the price$73.72+26.7%above the price$32.94
Dividend Discount−90.5%below the price$45.26−41.9%below the price$15.10
Multiples−81.7%below the price$87.40−5.3%close to the price$24.61
Asset-Based−97.4%below the price$12.52−70.7%below the price$7.63
Growth DCF−65.9%below the price$163+1.3%close to the price$26.34
Economic Profit−80.3%below the price$94.12−2.3%close to the price$25.41
Growth Earnings−65.0%below the price$167+29.6%above the price$33.70
Minimum−97.4%below the price$12.52−70.7%below the price$7.63
Maximum−65.0%below the price$167+29.6%above the price$33.70
Median−81.0%below the price$90.760%close to the price$25.88
Geometric mean−83.7%below the price$77.86−13.2%close to the price$22.58

Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.

Marathon Petroleum: 25 of 25 models see the stock below the current price.

Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA: 11 of 24 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear scenario to the optimistic bull scenario. The white tick is the current price (value above it), the green tick the fair value (value below it): if the price sits left of the fair value, there is room to rise.

Marathon Petroleum
Price $478
Fair Value $110
Bear $76.45Bull $172
Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA
Price $26.00
Fair Value $28.71
Bear $22.58Bull $38.35

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

Marathon Petroleum · Energy

Quality score61 · Top 25%
Fair value upside−77.0% · bottom 25%

Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA · Energy

Quality score62 · Top 25%
Fair value upside+10.4% · above median

Bottom line

As of Oct 19, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA as the more attractively valued of the two: Marathon Petroleum trades at $478 versus a fair value of $110 (−77.0%), while Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA trades at $26.00 versus $28.71 (+10.4%).

Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA has the higher quality score (62/100).

Open Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA live analysis →
Marathon Petroleum · Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.