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STOCK COMPARISON

Marathon Petroleum vs Petrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Petrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) compare, as of Sep 6, 2026.

As of Sep 6, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Petrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro as the less overvalued of the two: Marathon Petroleum trades at $389 versus a fair value of $133 (-66%), while Petrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro trades at $20.12 versus $15.68 (-22%).
Marathon Petroleum
MPC · USD · Energy
-66%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$389
Fair Value$133
Quality61/100
Petrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro
PBR · USD · Energy
-22%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$20.12
Fair Value$15.68
Quality65/100
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Head-to-head numbers

Green value = the better side for that row (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper).

Marathon PetroleumPetrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro
Valuation
18.7×P/E (TTM)5.5×
0.61×P/S (TTM)—
4.78×P/B—
10.7×EV/EBITDA—
1.41×PEG4.33×
−65.8%Fair value upside−22.1%
1.0%Dividend yield14.9%
$3.91Dividend per share$2.99
Profitability
4%Operating margin32%
—EBIT margin trend (5Y)1.05×
27%Return on equity26%
5%Return on assets8%
Growth
9%Revenue growth (YoY)0%
-9.2%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)-10.0%
13.7%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)11.1%
+10.1%Value creation/yr+29.8%
Balance & size
4.1×Interest coverage (EBIT/interest)201.2×
1.76×Debt / equity0.32×
$83BMarket cap$112B
weakGrowth qualityweak

Petrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro leads: 3 to 8 metric wins.

Dash = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

Marathon Petroleumof which business quality 57 · market factors 93 Petrobras - Petroleo Brasileiroof which business quality 61 · market factors 81
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
53
60
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
35
48
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
50
71
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
33
50
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
99
52
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
78
80
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
100
75
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
100
91
Net IssuanceBuybacks instead of dilution
100
84

What the models say

How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.

above the price, more than 15% above close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price below the price, more than 15% below

Model familyMarathon PetroleumPrice $389Petrobras - Petroleo BrasileiroPrice $20.12
DCF Models-69%below the price$120+63%above the price$32.73
Earnings-Based-78%below the price$84.34+66%above the price$33.30
Dividend Discount-86%below the price$55.80-23%below the price$15.51
Multiples-65%below the price$136+42%above the price$28.49
Asset-Based-90%below the price$39.74-61%below the price$7.89
Growth DCF-58%below the price$162+34%above the price$26.89
Economic Profit-72%below the price$108+43%above the price$28.74
Growth Earnings-59%below the price$161+67%above the price$33.66
Minimum-90%below the price$39.74-61%below the price$7.89
Maximum-58%below the price$162+67%above the price$33.66
Median-71%below the price$114+42%above the price$28.61
Geometric mean-75%below the price$98.02+18%above the price$23.68

Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.

Marathon Petroleum: 25 of 25 models see the stock below the current price.

Petrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro: 7 of 24 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear case to the optimistic bull case. The white tick is the current price: left of fair value means room to run.

Marathon Petroleum
Bear $74.68Fair Value $133Bull $209
$389 = current price (white tick)
Petrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro
Bear $10.84Fair Value $15.68Bull $20.95
$20.12 = current price (white tick)

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

Marathon Petroleum · Energy

Quality score61 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-66% · bottom 25%

Petrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro · Energy

Quality score65 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-22% · above median

Bottom line

As of Sep 6, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Petrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro as the less overvalued of the two: Marathon Petroleum trades at $389 versus a fair value of $133 (-66%), while Petrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro trades at $20.12 versus $15.68 (-22%).

Petrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro has the higher quality score (65/100).

See the full analysis →
Marathon Petroleum · Petrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.