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STOCK COMPARISON

Nextera Energy vs Vistra: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how Nextera Energy (NEE) and Vistra (VST) compare, as of Sep 26, 2026.

As of Sep 26, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Nextera Energy as the less overvalued of the two: Nextera Energy trades at $76.08 versus a fair value of $29.97 (-61%), while Vistra trades at $138 versus $21.15 (-85%).
Nextera Energy
NEE · USD · Utilities
-61%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$76.08
Fair Value$29.97
Quality49/100
Vistra
VST · USD · Utilities
-85%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$138
Fair Value$21.15
Quality38/100
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Head-to-head numbers

Green is the better side of a row, red the weaker one (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper). Grey rows are for reference only and are not scored.

betterweakerfor reference, not scored

Nextera EnergyVistra
Valuation
17.5×P/E (TTM)23.3×
30.0×P/E ex one-offs (FY2025)63.5×
18.8×Forward P/E (FY2026)14.6×
5.50×P/S (TTM)2.45×
2.89×P/B9.21× · book value is mostly goodwill
16.8×EV/EBITDA9.3×
1.60×PEG0.34×
−60.6%Fair value upside−84.7%
3.1%Dividend yield0.7%
$2.38Dividend per share$0.91
Profitability
32%Operating margin14%
1.06×EBIT margin trend (5Y)0.59×
12%Return on equity43%
2%Return on assets6%
Growth
12%Revenue growth (YoY)-6%
9.4%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)-1.6%
8.8%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)8.9%
+10.1%Value creation/yr+12.7%
Balance & size
1.8×Interest coverage (EBIT/interest)1.1×
1.64×Debt / equity3.10×
$158BMarket cap$47B
expensiveGrowth qualityexpensive
The P/E excluding one-off items is scored: for at least one of the two companies, special items (write-downs, restructuring, litigation) move the reported P/E by 15 % or more. The trailing P/E is shown for reference.

Nextera Energy leads: 8 to 6 metric wins.

n/a = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

Nextera Energyof which business quality 45 · market factors 48 Vistraof which business quality 36 · market factors 17
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
40
33
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
59
1
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
61
51
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
12
5
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
30
51
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
87
27
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
34
19
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
27
3
Net IssuanceShare count: buybacks or dilution?
77
90

What the models say

How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.

above the price, more than 15% above close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price below the price, more than 15% below

Model familyNextera EnergyPrice $76.08VistraPrice $138
DCF Models-75%below the price$19.07-93%below the price$10.33
Earnings-Based-78%below the price$16.48-89%below the price$14.88
Dividend Discount-51%below the price$37.40-82%below the price$24.85
Multiples-57%below the price$32.93-73%below the price$37.61
Asset-Based-77%below the price$17.54-93%below the price$10.20
Growth DCF-80%below the price$14.95-92%below the price$10.97
Economic Profit-62%below the price$28.98-84%below the price$22.82
Growth Earnings-34%below the price$50.38-68%below the price$43.65
Minimum-80%below the price$14.95-93%below the price$10.20
Maximum-34%below the price$50.38-68%below the price$43.65
Median-68%below the price$24.03-86%below the price$18.85
Geometric mean-67%below the price$24.91-86%below the price$18.86

Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.

Nextera Energy: 21 of 21 models see the stock below the current price.

Vistra: 22 of 22 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear scenario to the optimistic bull scenario. The white tick is the current price (value above it), the green tick the fair value (value below it): if the price sits left of the fair value, there is room to rise.

Nextera Energy
Price $76.08
Fair Value $29.97
Bear $21.77Bull $46.72
Vistra
Price $138
Fair Value $21.15
Bear $19.90Bull $33.57

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

Nextera Energy · Utilities

Quality score49 · above median
Fair value upside-61% · bottom 25%

Vistra · Utilities

Quality score38 · bottom 25%
Fair value upside-85% · bottom 25%

Bottom line

As of Sep 26, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Nextera Energy as the less overvalued of the two: Nextera Energy trades at $76.08 versus a fair value of $29.97 (-61%), while Vistra trades at $138 versus $21.15 (-85%).

Nextera Energy has the higher quality score (49/100).

Open Nextera Energy live analysis →
Nextera Energy · Vistra

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.