Vistra Corp (VST) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $53.6B
Vistra Corp
VST · US
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 20 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 13, 2026, revised from $47.59 to $85.66 (+80.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −9.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 39% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($97.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide ($30.44 to $97.02). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $14.40 – $217.02 · fair‑value band $30.44 – $97.02 · the $141.38 price screens above the $85.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Vistra Corp (VST) currently trades at $141.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $85.66, implying the stock looks roughly 39.4% overvalued today. We read business quality at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Vistra Corp generated revenue of $19.4B at a net margin of 11.5%. Revenue grew 43.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 42.9%. Net debt stands at $19.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $30.44 (bear case) to $97.02 (bull case); at $141.38, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -39%, VST screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 20 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($47.79) versus Asset-Based ($10.15). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure.
Full company description
Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. The company retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across states in the United States and the District of Columbia. It is also involved in electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel procurement, and fuel logistics management activities. In addition, the company engages in decommissioning and reclamation of retired generation facilities, including mines, and battery removal and remediation activities. It serves approximately 5 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 44,000 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Vistra Corp reported revenue of $17.0B in FY2025 versus $13.3B in FY2021, a compound +6.2%/yr. Reported net income was $944M in FY2025.
VST screens 39% overvalued. Compare with Constellation Energy Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Vistra Corp. (VST) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release
- Vistra (VST) Stock Looks Reasonable Following New York Data Center Limits
- Vistra Declares Dividend on Common Stock and Series A Preferred Stock
Peer Group
Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 79 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Independent Power Producers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Constellation Energy Corporation CEG | $257.57 | $89.08 | -65% |
| Adani Power Limited ADANIPOWER | ₹218.45 | ₹75.57 | -65% |
| CGN Power Co 003816 | ¥3.88 | ¥3.13 | -19% |
| NRG Energy, Inc NRG | $137.90 | $56.02 | -59% |
| Gulf Development Public Company GULF | 67.50 THB | 40.44 THB | -40% |
| Adani Energy Solutions Limited ADANIENSOL | ₹1,730 | ₹342.02 | -80% |
| Talen Energy Corporation TLN | $372.37 | $44.67 | -88% |
| Datang International Power Generation Co 601991 | ¥5.80 | ¥4.95 | -15% |
| Power Assets Holdings 0006 | HK$58.45 | HK$31.90 | -45% |
| Huaneng Power International, Inc 600011 | ¥6.75 | ¥10.46 | +55% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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