Vistra Corp. (VST) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Vistra Corp. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $15.42 – $217.02 · fair‑value band $29.95 – $93.06 · the $140.67 price screens above the $78.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure.
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Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. The company retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across states in the United States and the District of Columbia. It is also involved in electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel procurement, and fuel logistics management activities. In addition, the company engages in decommissioning and reclamation of retired generation facilities, including mines, and battery removal and remediation activities. It serves approximately 5 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 44,000 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.
Stock analysis
Vistra Corp. (VST) currently trades at $140.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $78.21, implying the stock looks roughly 79.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $43.45 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the $140.67 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $10.15, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $29.95 (bear) to $93.06 (bull), the price of $140.67 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Vistra Corp. reported revenue of $17.0B in FY2025 versus $13.3B in FY2021, a compound +6.2%/yr. Reported net income was $944M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $53.6B · P/E ratio 23.6 · P/S ratio 1.31 · EPS (TTM) $5.97 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 5.6% · Return on equity 42.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at −44%, VST screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($6.91 to $82.52). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $29.95Fair Value $78.21Bull $93.06
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.66 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.56/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−12.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12% vs −26%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 8%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 75 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Below median
Fair Value upside−39% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)43% · Top 25%
Return on assets6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)12% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)27% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth43% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity3.10× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)23.6× · Pricier than median
P/B10.48× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)2.76× · Pricier than median
P/FCF415.2× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA10.1× · Pricier than median
PEG0.47× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 24
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 70
DIVIDEND (yield)13· sector 63
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vistra Corp. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VST
Frequently asked questions
Is Vistra Corp. (VST) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $78.21 versus a price of $140.67, about −44% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VST?
Our model-based fair value for Vistra Corp. is $78.21 (as of Sep 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $140.67.
What is the quality score of VST?
Vistra Corp. has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vistra Corp. (VST)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $78.21 (as of Sep 17, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario $29.95, optimistic scenario $93.06. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vistra Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $78.21, about −44% upside versus a price of $140.67 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $29.95, optimistic scenario $93.06. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vistra Corp. (VST)?
Vistra Corp. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $19.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 17, 2026).
Does Vistra Corp. pay a dividend?
Vistra Corp. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.64% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 17, 2026).
What growth is priced into Vistra Corp. (VST)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vistra Corp. would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.9 % per year. As of Sep 17, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VST use?
Our models discount Vistra Corp. at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.45, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vistra Corp. that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Vistra Corp. (VST) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Vistra Corp. grew +8.9 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Vistra Corp. (VST) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vistra Corp. (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Vistra Corp. (VST)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.27 %: that much free cash flow Vistra Corp. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Vistra Corp. (VST)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vistra Corp. it is $78.21 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026), against a price of $140.67. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vistra Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 17, 2026, VST trades above its calculated fair value: price $140.67, fair value $78.21, a gap of about −44% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VST?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($140.67); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($78.21). For Vistra Corp. the two are $62.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vistra Corp. worth?
The market values Vistra Corp. at about $53.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 17, 2026). Per share that is $140.67; our models calculate a fair value of $78.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VST?
Our models span a range for Vistra Corp.: cautious scenario $29.95, base $78.21, optimistic $93.06 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026, price $140.67). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VST?
Vistra Corp. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.6 (as of Sep 17, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $78.21 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 10.5, P/S 2.8, EV/EBITDA 10.1.
What is the PEG ratio of VST?
The PEG ratio of Vistra Corp. is 0.47 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 17, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vistra Corp. (VST)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vistra Corp. (as of Sep 17, 2026): return on equity 42.9%, debt of 3.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VST from its 52-week high?
Vistra Corp. trades at $140.67, about 36% below its 52-week high of $219.21 and 6% above the low of $132.66 (as of Sep 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $78.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vistra Corp.?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Constellation Energy Corporation, Adani Power Limited, CGN Power Co, NRG Energy, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vistra Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 17, 2026: price $140.67, calculated fair value $78.21 (−44%), Quality Score 41/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VST calculated?
We run Vistra Corp. through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $78.21, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Vistra Corp. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vistra Corp. (VST)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $140.67. Our model-based fair value is $78.21, about −44% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vistra Corp. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($93.06). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($29.95 to $93.06). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Vistra Corp.
How large is the market capitalisation of Vistra Corp. (VST)?
The market capitalisation of Vistra Corp. is $53.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vistra Corp. (VST)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vistra Corp. is 1.31 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vistra Corp. (VST)?
Earnings per share at Vistra Corp. are $5.97 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Vistra Corp. (VST)?
The dividend yield of Vistra Corp. is 0.6% (payout 15.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Vistra Corp. (VST)?
The net margin of Vistra Corp. is 5.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vistra Corp. (VST)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vistra Corp. is 42.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vistra Corp. (VST)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vistra Corp. is 7.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vistra Corp. (VST)?
The operating margin of Vistra Corp. is 26.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vistra Corp. (VST)?
Revenue at Vistra Corp. is growing +43.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vistra Corp. (VST)?
Earnings per share at Vistra Corp. are growing −52.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Vistra Corp. (VST) carry?
The net debt of Vistra Corp. is $19.6B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 17, 2026