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Is the Stock Market Overvalued?

Live valuation · as of Nov 6, 2026

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Global stock market vs fair value
+15.5 %
overvalued

Cap-weighted across 24,183 valued stocks, cross-listings deduplicated. "+15.5 %" means the market trades above its aggregate fair value.

World map of stock market valuation

Each area is coloured by its cap-weighted gap to fair value: green trades below, red above the computed value. Click a continent for size classes and sectors.

Major indices: expensive or cheap?

DAX+32.5 % vs fair value
MSCI World+26.7 % vs fair value
S&P 500+23.5 % vs fair value
Eurozone+22.1 % vs fair value
Nasdaq 100+21.4 % vs fair value
Emerging Markets+0.3 % vs fair value

The same figures as a dated, citable edition with a dataset to download: Stock market valuation statistics.

Sectors: where is the over- and undervaluation?

more than 10% below fair value (cheap)near fair value (±10%)more than 10% above fair value (expensive)

Utilities+37.0 % Consumer Staples+30.1 % Energy+28.3 % Materials+26.3 % Industrials+25.3 % Financials+22.5 %
Other+20.6 %
Real Estate+18.8 % Consumer Discretionary+17.4 % Health Care+16.7 % Information Technology+8.5 % Communication Services−15.3 %

The cheapest and most expensive stock markets in the world

Cap-weighted gap to fair value per country (min. 100 valued stocks): larger companies carry more weight than smaller ones.

Cheapest
Hong Kong−24.5 %
Indonesia−16.3 %
Brazil−12.9 %
Philippines−7.3 %
China+0.4 %
Most expensive
Switzerland+48.0 %
Italy+41.9 %
India+41.0 %
Finland+32.5 %
Greece+31.6 %
Use this data

Journalists and bloggers: free to cite with a link back. Updated daily, free to use with attribution.

Fair Value Calculator, "Is the Stock Market Overvalued?", as of Nov 6, 2026. https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/market-valuation/

Top rated stocks below fair value, today

Endeavour Mining 36% below fair value · quality 87/100 Astellas Pharma 28% below fair value · quality 76/100 T. Rowe Price Group 47% below fair value · quality 75/100 Regeneron Pharmaceuticals 27% below fair value · quality 74/100 Credicorp 50% below fair value · quality 72/100

See all undervalued stocks →

How much cash does our model keep?

Cash share in our model

The more expensive the market looks, the more cash our model keeps. You also see how your own watchlist sits versus fair value and which of your positions stand out. A description of the market, not financial advice.

🔒 Model cash share
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Methodology

For over 40,000 stocks we compute a fundamental fair value from multiple models and aggregate the over/undervaluation cap-weighted into a market figure. Cross-listings are deduplicated, outliers capped. Index valuations use look-through: the weighted fair value of the constituent stocks. One source, updated daily.

Frequently asked questions

Is the stock market overvalued right now?

Cap-weighted across 24,183 valued stocks, the global market currently sits +15.5 % versus its aggregate fair value (as of Nov 6, 2026), i.e. overvalued. Model-based estimate, not financial advice.

Are large caps or small caps more expensive?

Large caps (from $10B market value) sit +17.7 % versus fair value, mid caps ($2B to $10B) +5.7 % and small caps (under $2B) +1.8 %, across 2,004, 3,580 and 18,599 stocks. So the premium comes mainly from the largest companies, and they carry the most weight in a cap-weighted figure.

Is the stock market in a bubble?

This figure alone cannot settle that. At +15.5 % the global market counts as overvalued on our models. But the gap to fair value says how expensive prices are, not whether or when they fall. A bubble can only be identified with certainty in hindsight. The most expensive sector right now is Utilities (+37.0 %).

Which sectors are the most expensive and the cheapest right now?

Most expensive: Utilities (+37.0 %) and Consumer Staples (+30.1 %). Cheapest: Communication Services (−15.3 %) and Information Technology (+8.5 %). Plus means above fair value, minus below it.

Which stock markets are the cheapest and the most expensive?

Among countries with at least 100 valued stocks, the cheapest are Hong Kong (−24.5 %) and Indonesia (−16.3 %). The most expensive are Switzerland (+48.0 %) and Italy (+41.9 %).

How is this different from the CAPE ratio and the Buffett indicator?

The CAPE ratio compares an index with its inflation-adjusted earnings over the last ten years, the Buffett indicator compares total market value with the economic output of a country. Both give one number for a whole market. Our figure is built from the bottom up: a fair value per stock from several models, added up across 24,183 stocks. That is why it can be split by sector, country and size.

All tables are available as CSV in the November 2026 report.

Model-based estimate. This valuation does not account for your personal situation, risk tolerance or investment horizon. As of Nov 6, 2026.