Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd (002490) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd ¥1.12, price ¥6.91, upside -83.8%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥1.41 – ¥13.24 · fair‑value band ¥0.9200 – ¥1.32 · the ¥6.91 price screens above the ¥1.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, research and development, production, and sale of products and services for the energy equipment industry in the People's Republic of China and internationally.
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Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, research and development, production, and sale of products and services for the energy equipment industry in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through Pipe Products; Oil sucker, sucker pump, sucker rod; Petroleum Machinery Parts; Casting and Forging; and Others segments. The company offers oil casings and drill pipe bodies; pipeline, boiler, fluid conveying, hydraulic support, gas cylinder, and structural pipes; stage drawing equipment and accessories; sucker rods, oil pumps, oil pumping units, petroleum machinery accessories, and downhole tools; precision casting and forging products. It also provides API and non-API casing products, line pipe products, precision steel pipes, hydraulic prop tubes, fluid pipes, cylinder valves, and boiler tubes; tubular, multi-functional, inclined well, sand preventing, and feedback pumps; and cylinder liners and gate valves. The company's products are used in oil, natural gas, shale gas, coalbed methane, hydrogen energy, petroleum refining, coal mining machinery, boiler manufacturing, construction machinery manufacturing, and oilfield services. The company exports its products to the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Africa, and South America and other countries and regions. Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Company Limited was founded in 1987 and is based in Shouguang, China.
Stock analysis
Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd (002490) currently trades at ¥6.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.12, 83.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥3.46 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the ¥6.91 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at ¥0.3800, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥0.9200 (bear) to ¥1.32 (bull), the price of ¥6.91 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd reported revenue of 1.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound −17.1%/yr. Reported net income was 5.2M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 6.6B CNY (≈ $979M) · P/E ratio 822.0 · P/S ratio 2.41 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0100 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 0.3% · Return on equity 1.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −7.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −84%, 002490 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.0700 to ¥5.77). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ¥0.9200Fair Value ¥1.12Bull ¥1.32
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0075 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+29.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.9% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−29.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−30.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−30.6% vs −14.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.3%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.6% a year for the price.
Compare Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Equipment & Services · 184 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−83.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1.0% · Below median
Return on assets2.5% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0.3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)6.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth128.5% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.4% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Equipment & Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)822.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B13.17× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)3.07× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF20.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA43.2× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 6
PAST (return on equity)4· sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)27· sector 36
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002490
Frequently asked questions
Is Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd (002490) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.12 versus a price of ¥6.91, about −84% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002490?
Our model-based fair value for Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd is ¥1.12 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥6.91.
What is the quality score of 002490?
Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd (002490)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥1.12 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.9200, optimistic scenario ¥1.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥1.12, about −84% upside versus a price of ¥6.91 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.9200, optimistic scenario ¥1.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd (002490)?
Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.37% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd (002490)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +16.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -10.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 002490 use?
Our models discount Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd that is +16.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd (002490) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd grew -10.2 % a year. The price currently implies +16.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd (002490) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd (+16.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd (002490)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.73 %: that much free cash flow Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd (002490)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd it is ¥1.12 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥6.91. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 002490 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥6.91, fair value ¥1.12, a gap of about −84% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002490?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥6.91); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥1.12). For Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd the two are ¥5.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd worth?
The market values Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd at about 6.6B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥6.91; our models calculate a fair value of ¥1.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002490?
Our models span a range for Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥0.9200, base ¥1.12, optimistic ¥1.32 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥6.91). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd (002490)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 1.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002490 from its 52-week high?
Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd trades at ¥6.91, about 48% below its 52-week high of ¥13.24 and 17% above the low of ¥5.90 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥1.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value SLB N.V, Baker Hughes Company, Tenaris S.A, TechnipFMC plc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥6.91, calculated fair value ¥1.12 (−84%), Quality Score 63/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002490 calculated?
We run Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥1.12, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd (002490)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was ¥6.91. Our model-based fair value is ¥1.12, about −84% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd (002490)?
The market capitalisation of Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd is 6.6B CNY (≈ $979M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd (002490)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd is 822.0 (as of Jun 16, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd (002490)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd is 2.41 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd (002490)?
Earnings per share at Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd are ¥0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 822.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd (002490)?
The dividend yield of Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd is 1.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd (002490)?
The net margin of Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd is 0.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd (002490)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd is 1.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd (002490)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd is −7.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd (002490)?
The operating margin of Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd is 6.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd (002490)?
Revenue at Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd is growing +129% versus a year earlier (3y avg −14.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd (002490)?
Earnings per share at Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd are growing +2.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd (002490) carry?
The net debt of Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd is 1.2B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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