Carrianna Group (0126) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$168M
Fair value as of: Aug 2, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Share price −6.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 21% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.0700 to HK$0.2200). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0960 – HK$0.8312 · fair‑value band HK$0.0700 – HK$0.2200 · the HK$0.1010 price screens above the HK$0.0800 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.
Analysis
Carrianna Group (0126) currently trades at HK$0.1010, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0800, implying the stock looks roughly 20.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Carrianna Group generated revenue of HK$578M at a net margin of -9.8%. Revenue grew 0.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.1%. Net debt stands at HK$1.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.0700 (bear case) to HK$0.2200 (bull case); at HK$0.1010, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -21%, 0126 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$1.25) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.0700). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 25
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Carrianna Group Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the operation of hotels and restaurants, and food businesses in Hong Kong and Mainland China. It operates through two segments: The Restaurant, Food and Hotel; and Property Investment and Development.
Full company description
Carrianna Group Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the operation of hotels and restaurants, and food businesses in Hong Kong and Mainland China. It operates through two segments: The Restaurant, Food and Hotel; and Property Investment and Development. The company offers prepared food, including frozen cooked food, home-made dishes, and marinade sauce braised products; owns and operates hotels; and produces moon cakes, rice dumplings, pastries, and souvenirs under the Carrianna brand. It also develops and sells properties; and leases residential, commercial, and industrial properties. In addition, the company builds and operates trade and logistics centers; and operates bakeries and data centers. The company was formerly known as Tak Sing Alliance Holdings Limited and changed its name to Carrianna Group Holdings Company Limited in June 2013. Carrianna Group Holdings Company Limited was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Kwai Chung, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Carrianna Group reported revenue of HK$578M in FY2025 versus HK$796M in FY2021, a compound −7.7%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$135M in FY2025.
0126 screens 21% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →
Peer Group
Restaurants · 227 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $105.49 | $35.83 | -66% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $34.63 | $18.43 | -47% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $163.54 | $59.66 | -64% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.19 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $195.74 | $173.68 | -11% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $43.90 | $55.10 | +26% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $197.03 | $104.89 | -47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $68.36 | $12.80 | -81% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $322.18 | $231.96 | -28% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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