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Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd (0126) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd HK$0.10, price HK$0.08, upside +21.1%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · HK · ISIN BMG1993G1042

CG Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd

0126 · HK

UndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.

✓Fair value HK$0.1017 · Undervalued (+21%)
!Quality 54/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y −7.4 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -9.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/11)
!Narrow moat 15/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 1 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$0.8312 HK$0.0810 Fair Value HK$0.1017 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.0810 – HK$0.8312 · fair‑value band HK$0.0857 – HK$0.1017 · the HK$0.0840 price screens below the HK$0.1017 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Carrianna Group Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the operation of hotels and restaurants, and food businesses in Hong Kong and Mainland China. It operates through two segments: The Restaurant, Food and Hotel; and Property Investment and Development.

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Carrianna Group Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the operation of hotels and restaurants, and food businesses in Hong Kong and Mainland China. It operates through two segments: The Restaurant, Food and Hotel; and Property Investment and Development. The company offers prepared food, including frozen cooked food, home-made dishes, and marinade sauce braised products; owns and operates hotels; and produces moon cakes, rice dumplings, pastries, and souvenirs under the Carrianna brand. It also develops and sells properties; and leases residential, commercial, and industrial properties. In addition, the company builds and operates trade and logistics centers; and operates bakeries and data centers. The company was formerly known as Tak Sing Alliance Holdings Limited and changed its name to Carrianna Group Holdings Company Limited in June 2013. Carrianna Group Holdings Company Limited was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Kwai Chung, Hong Kong.

Stock analysis

Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd (0126) currently trades at HK$0.0840, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1017, implying the stock looks roughly 17.4% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$0.8300 per share, and 13 of the 13 models we run sit above the HK$0.0840 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.1100, and 0 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$0.0857 (bear) to HK$0.1017 (bull), the price of HK$0.0840 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.

Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd reported revenue of HK$578M in FY2025 versus HK$796M in FY2021, a compound −7.7%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$135M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$168M (≈ $21.4M) · P/S ratio 0.29 · Net margin −23.4% · Return on equity −2.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.6% · Operating margin 7.1% · Revenue (TTM) HK$578M · Revenue growth (YoY) +0.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at 21%, 0126 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.0857 Fair Value HK$0.1017 Bull HK$0.1017
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$1.59 HK$2.19 HK$3.27 80
Growth DCF HK$1.66 HK$2.24 HK$3.20 79
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.9700 HK$1.28 HK$1.70 76
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$1.59 HK$2.19 HK$3.27 80
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.6900 HK$0.7900 HK$0.9500 74
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.9700 HK$1.28 HK$1.70 76
10Y Revenue Exit HK$1.04 HK$1.15 HK$1.25 68
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.21 HK$1.44 HK$1.68 70
Earnings-Based
EPV HK$0.0800 HK$0.1100 HK$0.1300 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT HK$0.1800 HK$0.2600 HK$0.3400 65
EV/EBITDA HK$0.6600 HK$0.9000 HK$1.14 67
EV/Revenue HK$0.1000 HK$0.1700 HK$0.2400 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.9400 HK$1.25 HK$1.87 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$1.66 HK$2.24 HK$3.20 79
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.6900 HK$0.8300 HK$1.04 74
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder HK$0.0800 HK$0.1100 HK$0.1300 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 18

Profitability 4
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 43
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 97
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 33
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 96
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 52
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 5
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 2
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 78
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.4%
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
11.9% (2019) → 0.4% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 226 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 54 · Above median
Fair Value upside +26% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −10% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.10× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.04× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 0.1× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 0.9× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)61 · sector 39
FUTURE (revenue growth)1 · sector 18
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 21
HEALTH (low debt)95 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 70

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
McDonald's Corporation MCD $238.32 $162.16 −32%
Starbucks Corporation SBUX $94.14 $35.83 −62%
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG $32.71 $35.98 +10%
Yum! Brands, Inc YUM $140.63 $75.61 −46%
Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR $71.66 $74.72 +4%
Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI $213.54 $173.68 −19%
Yum China Holdings YUMC $40.85 $49.95 +22%
Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH $164.84 $128.38 −22%
Dutch Bros Inc BROS $38.76 $15.54 −60%
Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ $296.43 $231.96 −22%

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HK$0.1017 +17%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0126

Frequently asked questions

Is Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd (0126) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1017 versus a price of HK$0.0840, about +21% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0126?
Our model-based fair value for Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd is HK$0.1017 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.0840.
What is the quality score of 0126?
Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd (0126)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.1017 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.0857, optimistic scenario HK$0.1017. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.1017, about +21% upside versus a price of HK$0.0840 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.0857, optimistic scenario HK$0.1017. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd (0126)?
Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$578M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd (0126)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd it is HK$0.1017 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$0.0840. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0126 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.0840, fair value HK$0.1017, a gap of about +21% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0126?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.0840); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.1017). For Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd the two are HK$0.0177 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd worth?
The market values Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd at about HK$168M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.0840; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.1017 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0126?
Our models span a range for Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.0857, base HK$0.1017, optimistic HK$0.1017 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$0.0840). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd (0126)?
Balance-sheet figures for Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −2.1%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0126 from its 52-week high?
Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd trades at HK$0.0840, about 50% below its 52-week high of HK$0.1680 and 4% above the low of HK$0.0810 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.1017 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$0.0840, calculated fair value HK$0.1017 (+21%), Quality Score 54/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0126 calculated?
We run Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.1017, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd currently trades 21 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd (0126)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$0.0840. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.1017, about +21% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd right now?
Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd (0126)?
The market capitalisation of Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd is HK$168M (≈ $21.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd (0126)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd is 0.29 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd (0126)?
The net margin of Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd is −23.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd (0126)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd is −2.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd (0126)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd is 0.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd (0126)?
The operating margin of Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd is 7.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd (0126)?
Revenue at Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd is growing +0.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd (0126)?
Earnings per share at Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd are growing −43.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd (0126) generate?
The free cash flow of Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd is HK$183M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd (0126) carry?
The net debt of Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd is HK$1.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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