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Lynas Rare Earths Limited (0A2N) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Lynas Rare Earths Limited A$9.42, price A$12.86, upside -26.7%, quality 70 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Industrials · GB · Home Australia · ISIN AU000000LYC6

LR Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Lynas Rare Earths Limited

0A2N · LSE

Overvalued / MonitorQuality growthQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value A$9.42 · Overvalued (−26.7%)
✓Quality 70/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +9.3 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 11.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt
!Moderate moat 49/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$22.10 A$1.07 Fair Value A$9.42 Jan 2018 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$1.07 – A$22.10 · fair‑value band A$7.00 – A$12.26 · the A$12.86 price screens above the A$9.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Lynas Rare Earths Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, mining, extraction, and processing of rare earth minerals in Australia and Malaysia.

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Lynas Rare Earths Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, mining, extraction, and processing of rare earth minerals in Australia and Malaysia. The company holds interests in the Mt Weld rare earths mine and concentration plant near Laverton in Western Australia; a rare earths processing facility in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia; and an advanced materials plant in Gebeng, Malaysia. It also offers light rare earths, including lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, and neodymium; and heavy rare earth, comprising of samarium, europium, gadolinium, terbium, and dysprosium. In addition, the company develops and operates advanced material processing and concentration plants, as well as offers corporate services. The company was formerly known as Lynas Corporation Limited and changed its name to Lynas Corporation Limited in November 2020. Lynas Rare Earths Limited was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in Perth, Australia.

Stock analysis

Lynas Rare Earths Limited (0A2N) currently trades at A$12.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$9.42, 26.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of A$13.35 per share, and 2 of the 22 models we run sit above the A$12.86 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$1.10, and 20 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: A$7.00 (bear) to A$12.26 (bull), the price of A$12.86 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Lynas Rare Earths Limited reported revenue of A$489M in FY2021 versus A$257M in FY2017, a compound +17.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$157M in FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap A$12.3B (≈ $8.6B) · P/E ratio 0.5 · P/S ratio 0.16 · EPS (TTM) A$0.3010 · Net margin 32.1% · Return on equity 2.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.3% · Operating margin 19.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −58% fair-value upside, at −27%, 0A2N screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$7.00 Fair Value A$9.42 Bull A$12.26
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF A$8.12 A$14.12 A$24.42 74
EPV A$2.62 A$2.90 A$3.15 74
Growth DCF A$8.01 A$13.35 A$22.10 73
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF A$8.12 A$14.12 A$24.42 74
5Y Revenue Exit A$3.82 A$4.98 A$6.37 71
5Y EBITDA Exit A$4.88 A$7.20 A$10.02 72
5Y P/E Exit A$5.52 A$8.56 A$12.00 67
10Y Revenue Exit A$5.21 A$6.83 A$8.99 65
10Y EBITDA Exit A$5.93 A$8.44 A$12.04 65
10Y P/E Exit A$6.35 A$9.42 A$13.69 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd A$1.61 A$7.96 A$10.98 61
Lynch FV A$2.14 A$3.06 A$3.98 58
PEG = 1.0 A$2.14 A$3.06 A$3.98 55
EPV A$2.62 A$2.90 A$3.15 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple A$3.73 A$4.98 A$6.22 63
P/S Multiple A$1.11 A$1.48 A$1.85 58
P/B Multiple A$3.02 A$4.03 A$5.04 55
EV/EBIT A$4.06 A$5.15 A$6.24 66
EV/EBITDA A$3.50 A$4.40 A$5.30 67
EV/Revenue A$1.73 A$2.13 A$2.53 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.8200 A$1.10 A$1.64 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF A$8.01 A$13.35 A$22.10 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income A$1.59 A$2.02 A$3.00 66
ROIC Compounder A$2.87 A$3.55 A$4.41 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E A$3.30 A$4.71 A$6.13 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 70/100

Of which business quality 72 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30

Profitability 53
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 88
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 75
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 42
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 26
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 23
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+60.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
8.9% (2017) → 34.7% (2021)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no share-count history
not computed

0A2N screens overvalued: fair value 27% below the price. Compare with BAJAJST →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Industrial Machinery · 17 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −71.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 2.9% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 1.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 11.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 19.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 62.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.14× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 0.5× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Lynas Rare Earths Limited · Fair Value
A$9.42 −27%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lynas Rare Earths Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0A2N

Frequently asked questions

Is Lynas Rare Earths Limited (0A2N) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$9.42 versus a price of A$12.86, about −27% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0A2N?
Our model-based fair value for Lynas Rare Earths Limited is A$9.42 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$12.86.
What is the quality score of 0A2N?
Lynas Rare Earths Limited has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lynas Rare Earths Limited (0A2N)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$9.42 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$7.00, optimistic scenario A$12.26. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lynas Rare Earths Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$9.42, about −27% upside versus a price of A$12.86 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$7.00, optimistic scenario A$12.26. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lynas Rare Earths Limited (0A2N)?
Lynas Rare Earths Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$716M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Lynas Rare Earths Limited (0A2N)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lynas Rare Earths Limited it is A$9.42 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$12.86. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lynas Rare Earths Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 0A2N trades above its calculated fair value: price A$12.86, fair value A$9.42, a gap of about −27% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0A2N?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$12.86); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$9.42). For Lynas Rare Earths Limited the two are A$3.44 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lynas Rare Earths Limited worth?
The market values Lynas Rare Earths Limited at about A$12.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$12.86; our models calculate a fair value of A$9.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0A2N?
Our models span a range for Lynas Rare Earths Limited: cautious scenario A$7.00, base A$9.42, optimistic A$12.26 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$12.86). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0A2N?
Lynas Rare Earths Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$9.42 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lynas Rare Earths Limited (0A2N)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lynas Rare Earths Limited (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 2.9%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0A2N from its 52-week high?
Lynas Rare Earths Limited trades at A$12.86, about 42% below its 52-week high of A$22.10 and 5% above the low of A$12.27 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$9.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lynas Rare Earths Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value BAJAJST, SEALMATIC, BIRLAPREC, Stovec Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lynas Rare Earths Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$12.86, calculated fair value A$9.42 (−27%), Quality Score 70/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0A2N calculated?
We run Lynas Rare Earths Limited through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$9.42, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Lynas Rare Earths Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lynas Rare Earths Limited (0A2N)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was A$12.86. Our model-based fair value is A$9.42, about −27% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lynas Rare Earths Limited right now?
A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$12.26). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Lynas Rare Earths Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of Lynas Rare Earths Limited (0A2N)?
The market capitalisation of Lynas Rare Earths Limited is A$12.3B (≈ $8.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lynas Rare Earths Limited (0A2N)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lynas Rare Earths Limited is 0.16 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lynas Rare Earths Limited (0A2N)?
Earnings per share at Lynas Rare Earths Limited are A$0.3010 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Lynas Rare Earths Limited (0A2N)?
The net margin of Lynas Rare Earths Limited is 32.1% (fiscal year 2021). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lynas Rare Earths Limited (0A2N)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lynas Rare Earths Limited is 2.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lynas Rare Earths Limited (0A2N)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lynas Rare Earths Limited is 7.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lynas Rare Earths Limited (0A2N)?
The operating margin of Lynas Rare Earths Limited is 19.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lynas Rare Earths Limited (0A2N)?
Revenue at Lynas Rare Earths Limited is growing +62.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lynas Rare Earths Limited (0A2N)?
Earnings per share at Lynas Rare Earths Limited are growing +12.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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