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Applied Optoelectronics, Inc (0HGV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Applied Optoelectronics, Inc $12.18, price $115, upside -89.4%, quality 31 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc
0HGV · LSEWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $12.18 · Strongly overvalued (−89.4%)
!Quality 31/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +14.2 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -8.6% net margin (TTM)
!negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 16/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
10‑month range $25.53 – $228.90 · fair‑value band $8.04 – $15.23 · the $114.97 price screens above the $12.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of fiber-optic networking products in the United States, Taiwan, and China.
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Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of fiber-optic networking products in the United States, Taiwan, and China. The company offers optical modules, optical filters, lasers, laser components, subassemblies, transmitters and transceivers, turn-key equipment, headend, node, and distribution equipment, as well as amplifiers. It sells its products to internet data center operators, cable television, telecom equipment manufacturers, fiber-to-the-home, and internet service providers through its direct and indirect sales channels. Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Sugar Land, Texas.
Stock analysis
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc (0HGV) currently trades at $114.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.18, 89.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $8.04 (bear) to $15.23 (bull), the price of $114.97 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality).
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc reported revenue of $456M in FY2025 versus $212M in FY2021, a compound +21.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$38.2M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $6.9B · EPS (TTM) $−2.01 · Net margin −8.4% · Return on equity −6.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −11.0% · Operating margin −8.6% · Revenue (TTM) $507M · Revenue growth (YoY) +51.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
Fair Value models
Bear $8.04
Fair Value $12.18
Bull $15.23
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham)
$9.09
$12.18
$18.18
51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$9.09
$12.18
$18.18
51
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
31/100
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Profitability
10
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
83
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
33
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
86
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
40
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
72
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+82.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.1% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−20.8% (2020) → −12.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
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Frequently asked questions
Is Applied Optoelectronics, Inc (0HGV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.18 versus a price of $114.97, about −89% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0HGV?
Our model-based fair value for Applied Optoelectronics, Inc is $12.18 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $114.97.
What is the quality score of 0HGV?
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Applied Optoelectronics, Inc (0HGV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.18 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.04, optimistic scenario $15.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Applied Optoelectronics, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.18, about −89% upside versus a price of $114.97 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.04, optimistic scenario $15.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Applied Optoelectronics, Inc (0HGV)?
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $507M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Applied Optoelectronics, Inc (0HGV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Applied Optoelectronics, Inc it is $12.18 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $114.97. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Applied Optoelectronics, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0HGV trades above its calculated fair value: price $114.97, fair value $12.18, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0HGV?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($114.97); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.18). For Applied Optoelectronics, Inc the two are $102.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Applied Optoelectronics, Inc worth?
The market values Applied Optoelectronics, Inc at about $6.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $114.97; our models calculate a fair value of $12.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0HGV?
Our models span a range for Applied Optoelectronics, Inc: cautious scenario $8.04, base $12.18, optimistic $15.23 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $114.97). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
Is Applied Optoelectronics, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $114.97, calculated fair value $12.18 (−89%), Quality Score 31/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0HGV calculated?
We run Applied Optoelectronics, Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $12.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Applied Optoelectronics, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Applied Optoelectronics, Inc (0HGV)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $114.97. Our model-based fair value is $12.18, about −89% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Applied Optoelectronics, Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($15.23). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($8.04 to $15.23) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Applied Optoelectronics, Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Applied Optoelectronics, Inc (0HGV)?
The market capitalisation of Applied Optoelectronics, Inc is $6.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Applied Optoelectronics, Inc (0HGV)?
Earnings per share at Applied Optoelectronics, Inc are $−2.01. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Applied Optoelectronics, Inc (0HGV)?
The net margin of Applied Optoelectronics, Inc is −8.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Applied Optoelectronics, Inc (0HGV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Applied Optoelectronics, Inc is −6.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Applied Optoelectronics, Inc (0HGV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Applied Optoelectronics, Inc is −11.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Applied Optoelectronics, Inc (0HGV)?
The operating margin of Applied Optoelectronics, Inc is −8.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Applied Optoelectronics, Inc (0HGV)?
Revenue at Applied Optoelectronics, Inc is growing +51.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +26.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Applied Optoelectronics, Inc (0HGV) generate?
The free cash flow of Applied Optoelectronics, Inc is −$354M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Applied Optoelectronics, Inc (0HGV) carry?
The net debt of Applied Optoelectronics, Inc is $79.4M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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