China New Energy Limited (1156) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of China New Energy Limited HK$0.16, price HK$0.27, upside -39.6%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0870 – HK$0.4500 · fair‑value band HK$0.1100 – HK$0.2200 · the HK$0.2650 price screens above the HK$0.1600 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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China New Energy Limited, an investment holding company, provides ethanol production system technology integrated services in ethanol fuel and alcoholic beverage industries in the People's Republic of China, Myanmar, Indonesia, and internationally.
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China New Energy Limited, an investment holding company, provides ethanol production system technology integrated services in ethanol fuel and alcoholic beverage industries in the People's Republic of China, Myanmar, Indonesia, and internationally. The company offers engineering design, equipment manufacturing, installation and commissioning, and maintenance services for ethanol production system. It also provides fabrication and manufacture of equipment in accordance with project requirements and designs. In addition, the company engages in the provision of technology development services. China New Energy Limited was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
China New Energy Limited (1156) currently trades at HK$0.2650, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1600, 39.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$0.1700 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$0.2650 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at HK$0.1600, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.1100 (bear) to HK$0.2200 (bull), the price of HK$0.2650 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
China New Energy Limited reported revenue of 85.9M CNY in FY2025 versus 387M CNY in FY2021, a compound −31.4%/yr. Reported net income was −26.4M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$156M (≈ $19.9M) · P/S ratio 1.59 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0100 · Net margin −30.7% · Return on equity −187% · Return on assets (EBIT) −15.1% · Operating margin −17.8% · Revenue (TTM) HK$85.9M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 170% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −40%, 1156 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.1100Fair Value HK$0.1600Bull HK$0.2200
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.24/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−30.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−73.6% (2020) → −29.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.2% a year for the price.
Compare China New Energy Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Equipment & Services · 185 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Below median
Fair Value upside−39.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets−4.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−30.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−17.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth27.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Equipment & Services median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)0.23× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF3.1× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 2
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 36
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China New Energy Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1156
Frequently asked questions
Is China New Energy Limited (1156) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1600 versus a price of HK$0.2650, about −40% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1156?
Our model-based fair value for China New Energy Limited is HK$0.1600 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.2650.
What is the quality score of 1156?
China New Energy Limited has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China New Energy Limited (1156)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.1600 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.1100, optimistic scenario HK$0.2200. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China New Energy Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.1600, about −40% upside versus a price of HK$0.2650 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.1100, optimistic scenario HK$0.2200. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China New Energy Limited (1156)?
China New Energy Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$85.9M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into China New Energy Limited (1156)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China New Energy Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +17.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -30.3 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1156 use?
Our models discount China New Energy Limited at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China New Energy Limited that is +17.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China New Energy Limited (1156) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China New Energy Limited grew -30.3 % a year. The price currently implies +17.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China New Energy Limited (1156) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China New Energy Limited (+17.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China New Energy Limited (1156)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.07 %: that much free cash flow China New Energy Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China New Energy Limited (1156)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China New Energy Limited it is HK$0.1600 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.2650. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China New Energy Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1156 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.2650, fair value HK$0.1600, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1156?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.2650); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.1600). For China New Energy Limited the two are HK$0.1050 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China New Energy Limited worth?
The market values China New Energy Limited at about HK$156M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.2650; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.1600 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1156?
Our models span a range for China New Energy Limited: cautious scenario HK$0.1100, base HK$0.1600, optimistic HK$0.2200 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.2650). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of China New Energy Limited (1156)?
Balance-sheet figures for China New Energy Limited (as of Sep 27, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1156 from its 52-week high?
China New Energy Limited trades at HK$0.2650, about 17% below its 52-week high of HK$0.3200 and 170% above the low of HK$0.0980 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.1600 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China New Energy Limited?
From the same area (Energy) we also value SLB N.V, Baker Hughes Company, Tenaris S.A, TechnipFMC plc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China New Energy Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.2650, calculated fair value HK$0.1600 (−40%), Quality Score 44/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1156 calculated?
We run China New Energy Limited through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.1600, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. China New Energy Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China New Energy Limited (1156)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was HK$0.2650. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.1600, about −40% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China New Energy Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.2200). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.1100 to HK$0.2200) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of China New Energy Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of China New Energy Limited (1156)?
The market capitalisation of China New Energy Limited is HK$156M (≈ $19.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China New Energy Limited (1156)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China New Energy Limited is 1.59 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China New Energy Limited (1156)?
Earnings per share at China New Energy Limited are HK$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of China New Energy Limited (1156)?
The net margin of China New Energy Limited is −30.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China New Energy Limited (1156)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China New Energy Limited is −187% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China New Energy Limited (1156)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China New Energy Limited is −15.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China New Energy Limited (1156)?
The operating margin of China New Energy Limited is −17.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China New Energy Limited (1156)?
Revenue at China New Energy Limited is growing +27.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does China New Energy Limited (1156) carry?
The net debt of China New Energy Limited is HK$24.4M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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