China Investment and Finance Group Ltd (1226) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of China Investment and Finance Group Ltd HK$1.68, price HK$0.84, upside +100.0%, quality 76 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.2200 – HK$1.60 · fair‑value band HK$0.9890 – HK$2.73 · the HK$0.8400 price screens below the HK$1.68 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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China Investment and Finance Group Limited is an equity fund launched and managed by China Everbright Securities (HK) Limited. The fund invests in the equity markets of Greater China. China Investment and Finance Group Limited was formed on April 26, 2002 and is domiciled in Cayman Islands.
Stock analysis
China Investment and Finance Group Ltd (1226) currently trades at HK$0.8400, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.68, implying the stock looks roughly 50.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$11.84 per share, and 8 of the 9 models we run sit above the HK$0.8400 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.4800, and 1 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.9890 (bear) to HK$2.73 (bull), the price of HK$0.8400 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
China Investment and Finance Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$38.0M in FY2026 versus HK$4.0M in FY2022, a compound +75.3%/yr. Reported net income was HK$140M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap HK$347M (≈ $44.2M) · P/E ratio 2.5 · P/S ratio 9.06 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.3500 · Net margin 92.3% · Return on equity 62.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.6% · Operating margin −198%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at 100%, 1226 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.9890Fair Value HK$1.68Bull HK$2.73
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.1755 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1,098.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+91.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+53.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +28.9% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+88.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+88.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.88.2% vs −6.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−167% → 377%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 25.6%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−19.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −21.3% a year for the price.
Compare China Investment and Finance Group Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 660 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score76 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+100.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)62.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets38.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)92.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−197.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−25.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Investment and Finance Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1226
Frequently asked questions
Is China Investment and Finance Group Ltd (1226) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.68 versus a price of HK$0.8400, about +100% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1226?
Our model-based fair value for China Investment and Finance Group Ltd is HK$1.68 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.8400.
What is the quality score of 1226?
China Investment and Finance Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 76/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Investment and Finance Group Ltd (1226)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.68 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.9890, optimistic scenario HK$2.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Investment and Finance Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.68, about +100% upside versus a price of HK$0.8400 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.9890, optimistic scenario HK$2.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into China Investment and Finance Group Ltd (1226)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Investment and Finance Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -19.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +53.1 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1226 use?
Our models discount China Investment and Finance Group Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Investment and Finance Group Ltd that is -19.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Investment and Finance Group Ltd (1226) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Investment and Finance Group Ltd grew +53.1 % a year. The price currently implies -19.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Investment and Finance Group Ltd (1226) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Investment and Finance Group Ltd (-19.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Investment and Finance Group Ltd (1226)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.99 %: that much free cash flow China Investment and Finance Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Investment and Finance Group Ltd (1226)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Investment and Finance Group Ltd it is HK$1.68 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.8400. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Investment and Finance Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1226 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.8400, fair value HK$1.68, a gap of about +100% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1226?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.8400); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.68). For China Investment and Finance Group Ltd the two are HK$0.8400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Investment and Finance Group Ltd worth?
The market values China Investment and Finance Group Ltd at about HK$347M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.8400; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1226?
Our models span a range for China Investment and Finance Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.9890, base HK$1.68, optimistic HK$2.73 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.8400). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1226?
China Investment and Finance Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.5 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$1.68 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 2.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Investment and Finance Group Ltd (1226)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Investment and Finance Group Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 62.5%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 76/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1226 from its 52-week high?
China Investment and Finance Group Ltd trades at HK$0.8400, about 24% below its 52-week high of HK$1.10 and 22% above the low of HK$0.6900 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Investment and Finance Group Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, KKR & Co, Brookfield Corporation, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Investment and Finance Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.8400, calculated fair value HK$1.68 (+100%), Quality Score 76/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1226 calculated?
We run China Investment and Finance Group Ltd through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. China Investment and Finance Group Ltd currently trades 50 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Investment and Finance Group Ltd (1226)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.8400. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.68, about +100% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Investment and Finance Group Ltd right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (76/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.9890). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.9890 to HK$2.73). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of China Investment and Finance Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Investment and Finance Group Ltd (1226)?
The market capitalisation of China Investment and Finance Group Ltd is HK$347M (≈ $44.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Investment and Finance Group Ltd (1226)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Investment and Finance Group Ltd is 9.06 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Investment and Finance Group Ltd (1226)?
Earnings per share at China Investment and Finance Group Ltd are HK$0.3500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of China Investment and Finance Group Ltd (1226)?
The net margin of China Investment and Finance Group Ltd is 92.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Investment and Finance Group Ltd (1226)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Investment and Finance Group Ltd is 62.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Investment and Finance Group Ltd (1226)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Investment and Finance Group Ltd is −0.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Investment and Finance Group Ltd (1226)?
The operating margin of China Investment and Finance Group Ltd is −198% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Investment and Finance Group Ltd (1226)?
Revenue at China Investment and Finance Group Ltd is growing −25.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +91.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Investment and Finance Group Ltd (1226)?
Earnings per share at China Investment and Finance Group Ltd are growing −34.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does China Investment and Finance Group Ltd (1226) hold?
China Investment and Finance Group Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$28.8M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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