Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 9, 2026: fair value of Northern Trust Corporation $123, price $168, upside -26.6%, quality 79 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $58.19 – $191.47 · fair‑value band $92.56 – $154.27 · the $168.21 price screens above the $123.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Northern Trust Corporation, a financial holding company, provides wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking solutions for corporations, institutions, families, and individuals. It operates in two segments, Asset Servicing and Wealth Management.
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Northern Trust Corporation, a financial holding company, provides wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking solutions for corporations, institutions, families, and individuals. It operates in two segments, Asset Servicing and Wealth Management. The Asset Servicing segment offers asset servicing and related services, including custody, fund administration, investment operations outsourcing, investment management, investment risk and analytical, employee benefit, securities lending, foreign exchange, treasury management, brokerage, transition management, banking, and cash management services. It serves corporate and public retirement funds, foundations, endowments, fund managers, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, and other institutional investors. The Wealth Management segment offers trust, investment management, custody, and philanthropic; financial consulting; guardianship and estate administration; family business consulting; family financial education; brokerage; and private and business banking services. This segment also provides global custody; fiduciary; family office consulting; and technology solutions to high-net-worth individuals and families, business owners, executives, professionals, retirees, and established privately-held businesses. In addition, it offers asset management, and related services and other products comprising active and passive equity; active and passive fixed income; cash management; muti-asset and alternative asset classes which includes private equity and hedge funds of funds; and multi-manager advisory services and products through separately managed accounts, bank common and collective funds, registered investment companies, exchange traded funds, non-U.S. collective investment funds, and unregistered private investment funds. Further, the company provides overlay and other risk management services. The company was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Stock analysis
Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) currently trades at $168.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $123.42, 26.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $756.82 per share, and 6 of the 13 models we run sit above the $168.21 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $47.45, and 7 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $92.56 (bear) to $154.27 (bull), the price of $168.21 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Northern Trust Corporation reported revenue of $14.3B in FY2025 versus $6.5B in FY2021, a compound +21.8%/yr. Reported net income was $1.7B in FY2025, compounding +3.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $31.1B · P/E ratio 14.5 · P/S ratio 1.76 · EPS (TTM) $11.64 · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 12.1% · Return on equity 17.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −27%, NTRS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $92.56Fair Value $123.42Bull $154.27
Price $168.21 · Upside -26.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($6.54 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.94/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.6% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.9% vs 8.3%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.26% → 16%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−6.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.1% a year for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare Northern Trust Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 655 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score79 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−26.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)17.1% · Above median
Return on assets1.3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)24.7% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)42.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth36.4% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.08× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)14.5× · Pricier than median
P/B2.40× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)3.42× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF5.7× · Cheapest 25%
PEG0.98× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 60
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 39
PAST (return on equity)68· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)46· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)38· sector 82
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $123.42 versus a price of $168.21, about −27% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NTRS?
Our model-based fair value for Northern Trust Corporation is $123.42 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $168.21.
What is the quality score of NTRS?
Northern Trust Corporation has a Quality Score of 79/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $123.42 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $92.56, optimistic scenario $154.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Northern Trust Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $123.42, about −27% upside versus a price of $168.21 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $92.56, optimistic scenario $154.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS)?
Northern Trust Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $9.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Northern Trust Corporation pay a dividend?
Northern Trust Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.90% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Northern Trust Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.8 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NTRS use?
Our models discount Northern Trust Corporation at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.26, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Northern Trust Corporation that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Northern Trust Corporation grew +17.8 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Northern Trust Corporation (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.55 %: that much free cash flow Northern Trust Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Northern Trust Corporation it is $123.42 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $168.21. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Northern Trust Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, NTRS trades above its calculated fair value: price $168.21, fair value $123.42, a gap of about −27% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NTRS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($168.21); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($123.42). For Northern Trust Corporation the two are $44.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Northern Trust Corporation worth?
The market values Northern Trust Corporation at about $31.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $168.21; our models calculate a fair value of $123.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NTRS?
Our models span a range for Northern Trust Corporation: cautious scenario $92.56, base $123.42, optimistic $154.27 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $168.21). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NTRS?
Northern Trust Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.5 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $123.42 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 2.4, P/S 3.4.
What is the PEG ratio of NTRS?
The PEG ratio of Northern Trust Corporation is 0.98 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Northern Trust Corporation (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 17.1%, debt of 1.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 79/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NTRS from its 52-week high?
Northern Trust Corporation trades at $168.21, about 12% below its 52-week high of $191.47 and 39% above the low of $120.74 (as of Oct 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $123.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Northern Trust Corporation?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, KKR & Co, Brookfield Corporation, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Northern Trust Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $168.21, calculated fair value $123.42 (−27%), Quality Score 79/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NTRS calculated?
We run Northern Trust Corporation through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $123.42, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Northern Trust Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS)?
The closing price on Oct 9, 2026 was $168.21. Our model-based fair value is $123.42, about −27% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Northern Trust Corporation right now?
A high-quality business (quality 79/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($154.27). The favourable scenario is already priced in. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) come from?
Earnings per share at Northern Trust Corporation grew +8.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.8 %, EBIT margin −7.0 %, tax rate +1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Northern Trust Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS)?
The market capitalisation of Northern Trust Corporation is $31.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Northern Trust Corporation is 1.76 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS)?
Earnings per share at Northern Trust Corporation are $11.64 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS)?
The dividend yield of Northern Trust Corporation is 1.9% (payout 27.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS)?
The net margin of Northern Trust Corporation is 12.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Northern Trust Corporation is 17.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Northern Trust Corporation is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS)?
The operating margin of Northern Trust Corporation is 42.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS)?
Revenue at Northern Trust Corporation is growing +36.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS)?
Earnings per share at Northern Trust Corporation are growing +98.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) hold?
Northern Trust Corporation holds more cash than debt, $44.7B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Sep 27, 2026