Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd (1618) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd TWD 30.36, price TWD 38.65, upside -21.5%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 10.22 TWD – 64.20 TWD · fair‑value band 20.57 TWD – 46.95 TWD · the 38.65 TWD price screens above the 30.36 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co., Ltd. manufactures, imports, and sells cable products in Taiwan.
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Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co., Ltd. manufactures, imports, and sells cable products in Taiwan. It offers XLPE power, electric, aluminum, rubber, communication, fiber optic, EV charging, and network cables; cable accessories, such as cable terminations and joints, and power transformers/power capacitors; USB; networking systems; and heat resistance and solar wires. The company also engages in real estate leasing business, and trades in copper, plastic, etc. It exports its products. Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Taipei, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd (1618) currently trades at 38.65 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 30.36 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 27.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 73.04 TWD per share, and 10 of the 25 models we run sit above the 38.65 TWD price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 3.69 TWD, and 15 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 20.57 TWD (bear) to 46.95 TWD (bull), the price of 38.65 TWD sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd reported revenue of 4.8B TWD in FY2025 versus 2.8B TWD in FY2021, a compound +14.5%/yr. Reported net income was 810M TWD in FY2025, compounding +36.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 7.4B TWD (≈ $234M) · P/E ratio 9.2 · P/S ratio 1.56 · EPS (TTM) 4.18 TWD · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 16.8% · Return on equity 14.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −21%, 1618 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 20.57 TWDFair Value 30.36 TWDBull 46.95 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (3.06 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.6% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+42.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+38.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.32% vs 26%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 16%
2025 sits 111% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+54.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +52.5% a year for the price.
Compare Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electronics & Computer Distribution · 154 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside−21% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14% · Above median
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)30% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.05× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Electronics & Computer Distribution median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1618
Frequently asked questions
Is Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd (1618) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 30.36 TWD versus a price of 38.65 TWD, about −21% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1618?
Our model-based fair value for Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd is 30.36 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 38.65 TWD.
What is the quality score of 1618?
Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd (1618)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 30.36 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 20.57 TWD, optimistic scenario 46.95 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 30.36 TWD, about −21% upside versus a price of 38.65 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 20.57 TWD, optimistic scenario 46.95 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd (1618)?
Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.9B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.00% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd (1618)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +54.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1618 use?
Our models discount Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd at 12.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.72, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd that is +54.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd (1618) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd grew +11.3 % a year. The price currently implies +54.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd (1618) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd (+54.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd (1618)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.88 %: that much free cash flow Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd (1618)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd it is 30.36 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 38.65 TWD. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 1618 trades above its calculated fair value: price 38.65 TWD, fair value 30.36 TWD, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1618?
No. The price is what the market pays today (38.65 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (30.36 TWD). For Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd the two are 8.29 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd worth?
The market values Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd at about 7.4B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 38.65 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 30.36 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1618?
Our models span a range for Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd: cautious scenario 20.57 TWD, base 30.36 TWD, optimistic 46.95 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 38.65 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1618?
Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 30.36 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 8.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd (1618)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 14.3%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1618 from its 52-week high?
Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd trades at 38.65 TWD, about 23% below its 52-week high of 50.10 TWD and 6% above the low of 36.50 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 30.36 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value TD SYNNEX Corporation, Unisplendour Corporation, Rexel S.A, Arrow Electronics, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 38.65 TWD, calculated fair value 30.36 TWD (−21%), Quality Score 54/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1618 calculated?
We run Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 30.36 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd (1618)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 38.65 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 30.36 TWD, about −21% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (20.57 TWD to 46.95 TWD) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd (1618) come from?
Earnings per share at Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd grew +27.5 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.6 %, EBIT margin +18.3 %, tax rate −0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd (1618)?
The market capitalisation of Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd is 7.4B TWD (≈ $234M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd (1618)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd is 1.56 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd (1618)?
Earnings per share at Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd are 4.18 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd (1618)?
The dividend yield of Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd is 4.0% (payout 37.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd (1618)?
The net margin of Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd is 16.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd (1618)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd is 14.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd (1618)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd is 7.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd (1618)?
The operating margin of Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd is 30.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd (1618)?
Revenue at Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd is growing +7.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd (1618)?
Earnings per share at Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd are growing +27.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd (1618) carry?
The net debt of Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co Ltd is 1.1B TWD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 17.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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