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Hilong Holding Ltd (1623) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Hilong Holding Ltd HK$0.38, price HK$0.24, upside +60.0%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Energy · HK · ISIN KYG4509G1055

HH Hilong Holding Ltd logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Hilong Holding Ltd

1623 · HK

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value HK$0.3840 · Strongly undervalued (+60%)
!Quality 47/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +13.2 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -6.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (6/10)
!Narrow moat 32/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$0.8900 HK$0.0880 Fair Value HK$0.3840 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.0880 – HK$0.8900 · fair‑value band HK$0.2730 – HK$0.5164 · the HK$0.2400 price screens below the HK$0.3840 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Hilong Holding Limited, an investment holding company, operates as an oil field equipment and services provider in China, Hong Kong, Russia, Central Asia and Europe, the Middle East, North and South America, South Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa, the Oceania, and internationally.

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Hilong Holding Limited, an investment holding company, operates as an oil field equipment and services provider in China, Hong Kong, Russia, Central Asia and Europe, the Middle East, North and South America, South Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa, the Oceania, and internationally. It operates through Oilfield Equipment Manufacturing and Services, Oilfield Services, and Offshore Engineering Services segments. The Oilfield Equipment Manufacturing and Services segment produces and sells oilfield equipment. The Oilfield Services segment provides well drilling services, integrated comprehensive services, oil country tubular goods trading, and related services to oil and gas producers. The Offshore Engineering Services segment offers engineering design, simulation analysis, and technical support; and various engineering construction services to the oil and gas industry. It is also involved in the provision of pipeline coating services; and research and development on the technology of manufacturing oil and gas equipment, and pipes. In addition, the company manufactures and distributes oil and gas equipment, as well as distributes hardbanding materials. Hilong Holding Limited was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

Stock analysis

Hilong Holding Ltd (1623) currently trades at HK$0.2400, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.3840, implying the stock looks roughly 37.5% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$2.40 per share, and 10 of the 10 models we run sit above the HK$0.2400 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$0.9600, and 0 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$0.2730 (bear) to HK$0.5164 (bull), the price of HK$0.2400 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Hilong Holding Ltd reported revenue of 4.9B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound +13.7%/yr. Reported net income was −324M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$403M (≈ $51.4M) · P/S ratio 0.08 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.1900 · Net margin −6.6% · Return on equity −10.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1% · Operating margin 23.2% · Revenue (TTM) HK$4.9B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 112% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 60%, 1623 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.2730 Fair Value HK$0.3840 Bull HK$0.5164
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$1.99 HK$2.82 HK$4.01 81
Growth DCF HK$1.98 HK$2.73 HK$3.77 79
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.71 HK$2.40 HK$3.23 76
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$1.99 HK$2.82 HK$4.01 81
5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.27 HK$1.53 HK$1.84 74
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.71 HK$2.40 HK$3.23 76
10Y Revenue Exit HK$1.53 HK$1.85 HK$2.25 68
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.81 HK$2.42 HK$3.27 69
Multiples
EV/EBITDA HK$1.65 HK$2.02 HK$2.39 67
EV/Revenue HK$0.8400 HK$0.9600 HK$1.09 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.9000 HK$1.21 HK$1.80 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$1.98 HK$2.73 HK$3.77 79
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.27 HK$1.55 HK$1.90 74

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63

Profitability 15
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 40
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 19
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 40
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 92
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 63
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 55
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 77
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 88
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 60/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.0% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−5.5% (2020) → 0.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.5% a year for the price.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Equipment & Services · 193 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/8 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 47 · Below median
Fair Value upside +60% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 23% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 16% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Equipment & Services median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.01× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 1.0× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 14
FUTURE (revenue growth)80 · sector 8
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 34

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Equipment & Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
SLB N.V SLB $52.12 $28.66 −45%
Baker Hughes Company BKR $57.26 $32.40 −43%
TechnipFMC plc FTI $70.82 $27.68 −61%
Halliburton Company HAL $32.85 $21.50 −35%
Tenaris S.A TEN €24.55 €18.99 −23%
Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group 002353 ¥118.92 ¥128.30 +8%
Saipem SpA SPM €4.34 €2.72 −37%
Subsea 7 S.A SUBC kr 324.20 kr 262.95 −19%
China Oilfield Services Limited 601808 ¥12.23 ¥13.04 +7%
Gaztransport & Technigaz SA GTT €222.60 €244.86 +10%

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Hilong Holding Ltd · Fair Value
HK$0.3840 +38%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hilong Holding Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1623

Frequently asked questions

Is Hilong Holding Ltd (1623) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.3840 versus a price of HK$0.2400, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1623?
Our model-based fair value for Hilong Holding Ltd is HK$0.3840 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.2400.
What is the quality score of 1623?
Hilong Holding Ltd has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hilong Holding Ltd (1623)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.3840 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.2730, optimistic scenario HK$0.5164. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hilong Holding Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.3840, about +60% upside versus a price of HK$0.2400 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.2730, optimistic scenario HK$0.5164. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hilong Holding Ltd (1623)?
Hilong Holding Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$4.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hilong Holding Ltd (1623)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hilong Holding Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +23.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1623 use?
Our models discount Hilong Holding Ltd at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.46, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hilong Holding Ltd that is +23.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hilong Holding Ltd (1623) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hilong Holding Ltd grew +13.2 % a year. The price currently implies +23.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hilong Holding Ltd (1623) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hilong Holding Ltd (+23.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hilong Holding Ltd (1623)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.31 %: that much free cash flow Hilong Holding Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hilong Holding Ltd (1623)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hilong Holding Ltd it is HK$0.3840 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$0.2400. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hilong Holding Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 1623 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.2400, fair value HK$0.3840, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1623?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.2400); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.3840). For Hilong Holding Ltd the two are HK$0.1440 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hilong Holding Ltd worth?
The market values Hilong Holding Ltd at about HK$403M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.2400; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.3840 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1623?
Our models span a range for Hilong Holding Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.2730, base HK$0.3840, optimistic HK$0.5164 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$0.2400). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hilong Holding Ltd (1623)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hilong Holding Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −10.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1623 from its 52-week high?
Hilong Holding Ltd trades at HK$0.2400, about 23% below its 52-week high of HK$0.3100 and 112% above the low of HK$0.1130 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.3840 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hilong Holding Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value SLB N.V, Baker Hughes Company, TechnipFMC plc, Halliburton Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hilong Holding Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$0.2400, calculated fair value HK$0.3840 (+60%), Quality Score 47/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1623 calculated?
We run Hilong Holding Ltd through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.3840, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Hilong Holding Ltd currently trades 60 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hilong Holding Ltd (1623)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was HK$0.2400. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.3840, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hilong Holding Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.2730). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.2730 to HK$0.5164) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Hilong Holding Ltd (1623) come from?
Earnings per share at Hilong Holding Ltd grew −10.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.0 %, EBIT margin −9.3 %, tax rate −5.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Hilong Holding Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Hilong Holding Ltd (1623)?
The market capitalisation of Hilong Holding Ltd is HK$403M (≈ $51.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hilong Holding Ltd (1623)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hilong Holding Ltd is 0.08 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hilong Holding Ltd (1623)?
Earnings per share at Hilong Holding Ltd are HK$−0.1900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Hilong Holding Ltd (1623)?
The net margin of Hilong Holding Ltd is −6.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hilong Holding Ltd (1623)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hilong Holding Ltd is −10.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hilong Holding Ltd (1623)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hilong Holding Ltd is 5.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hilong Holding Ltd (1623)?
The operating margin of Hilong Holding Ltd is 23.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hilong Holding Ltd (1623)?
Revenue at Hilong Holding Ltd is growing +15.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hilong Holding Ltd (1623)?
Earnings per share at Hilong Holding Ltd are growing +168% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hilong Holding Ltd (1623) carry?
The net debt of Hilong Holding Ltd is HK$1.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 27.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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