Data-driven stock valuation

Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Tencent Music Entertainment Group is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
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Communication Services · HK · Market cap HK$112B (≈ $14.2B) · ISIN KYG875771134

At a glance

TM Tencent Music Entertainment Group 1698 · HK

PriceHK$31.20

Fair ValueHK$66.77

Upside+114.0%

Quality75/100

A strong business, trading 53% below our fair value of HK$66.77.

As of Aug 21, 2026, the fair value of Tencent Music Entertainment Group is HK$66.77 per share against a price of HK$31.20, so the fair value sits 114% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +1.9 %/yr)

✓Highly profitable · 26.5% net margin

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

·5.38% dividend yield

✓Ranks above peers (13/15)

✓Wide moat 74/100

Evidence: High Range HK$46.40 to HK$89.40

Fair value as of: Aug 21, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 21 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 21, 2026, revised from HK$66.60 to HK$66.77 (+0.3%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −19.1% over the past month.

This is the short version. In the app for Tencent Music Entertainment Group:

26 models, one by oneBear HK$46.40 to bull HK$89.40 5-year chart + forecastprice, fair value, trend, scenarios Quality 75/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

Watch Tencent Music Entertainment Group for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card. Watch for free

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

The rarer combination: high quality (75/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$46.40). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
A fairly wide model range (HK$46.40 to HK$89.40) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (4 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.

How to read this chart

48‑month range HK$12.82 – HK$100.30 · fair‑value band HK$46.40 – HK$89.40 · the HK$31.20 price screens below the HK$66.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698) currently trades at HK$31.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$66.77, implying the stock looks roughly 53.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$67.44 per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$31.20 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$9.99, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Tencent Music Entertainment Group generated revenue of HK$33.4B at a net margin of 26.5%. Revenue grew 7.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$4.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 21, 2026

Scenario range: HK$46.40 (bear) to HK$89.40 (bull), the price of HK$31.20 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 69% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at 114%, 1698 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$1.27 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

FCF DCF best evidence HK$40.66 HK$68.42 HK$114.44 77

Growth DCF HK$40.73 HK$67.14 HK$110.32 75

Owner Earnings HK$48.31 HK$81.51 HK$136.56 74

All 26 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF best evidence HK$40.66 HK$68.42 HK$114.44 77

Owner Earnings HK$48.31 HK$81.51 HK$136.56 74

5Y Revenue Exit HK$28.65 HK$44.70 HK$65.57 71

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$40.08 HK$67.44 HK$100.75 73

5Y P/E Exit HK$49.33 HK$85.83 HK$126.40 69

10Y Revenue Exit HK$31.75 HK$48.02 HK$71.08 65

10Y EBITDA Exit HK$39.93 HK$64.35 HK$99.53 66

10Y P/E Exit HK$45.97 HK$77.56 HK$120.28 62

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$23.56 HK$95.79 HK$130.38 61

Lynch FV HK$23.98 HK$34.26 HK$44.54 58

PEG = 1.0 HK$23.98 HK$34.26 HK$44.54 55

EPV HK$36.18 HK$41.94 HK$46.99 72

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM HK$5.70 HK$11.85 HK$18.80 64

DDM Multi-Stage HK$5.70 HK$9.99 HK$12.44 64

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$57.16 HK$76.21 HK$95.27 61

P/S Multiple HK$27.06 HK$36.08 HK$45.10 56

P/B Multiple HK$44.17 HK$58.89 HK$73.62 53

EV/EBIT HK$52.40 HK$69.34 HK$86.27 65

EV/EBITDA HK$43.58 HK$57.57 HK$71.57 66

EV/Revenue HK$23.26 HK$32.53 HK$41.81 52

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$12.92 HK$17.31 HK$25.84 52

Growth DCF

Growth DCF HK$40.73 HK$67.14 HK$110.32 75

Rev-Margin DCF HK$28.65 HK$44.72 HK$64.73 71

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$24.80 HK$31.33 HK$80.53 67

ROIC Compounder HK$39.53 HK$52.31 HK$69.32 71

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$42.83 HK$61.18 HK$79.54 66

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$67.44) versus Dividend Discount (HK$9.99). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 10.4 as of Jul 2, 2026

P/S ratio 3.51 P/E × margin

EPS (TTM) HK$3.50 price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.4

Dividend yield 5.4% payout 48.0%

Net margin 33.6% FY2025

Return on equity 12.0% TTM

More key figures

Profitability

Return on assets (EBIT) 8.6% avg 5y

Operating margin 30.4% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) HK$33.4B TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) +7.3% 3y avg +4.2%

EPS growth (YoY) −51.8%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow HK$9.9B FY2025

Net cash HK$4.7B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 75/100

Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21

Profitability 53

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 78

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 82

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 85

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 44

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 53

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 12

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 0

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 92

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Tencent Music Entertainment Group operates online music entertainment platforms that provides music streaming, online karaoke, and live streaming services in the People's Republic of China.

Full company description

Tencent Music Entertainment Group operates online music entertainment platforms that provides music streaming, online karaoke, and live streaming services in the People's Republic of China. It provides QQ Music, Kugou Music, and Kuwo Music that enable users to discover, enjoy, and share music in personalized ways; long-form audio content, including audiobooks, podcasts and talk shows, as well as music-oriented video content comprising music videos, live performances, and short videos; and WeSing, which enables users to sing along from its library of karaoke songs and share their performances in audio or video formats with friends. The company also delivers music-centric live streaming services primarily through the Live Streaming tab on QQ Music, Kugou Music, Kuwo Music, WeSing, Kugou Live, and Kuwo Live that provides an interactive online stage for performers and users to showcase their talent and engage with audience base; and Lazy Audio, an audio platform. In addition, it sells artist-related merchandise, such as branded apparel, posters and art prints, and accessories; other music services, such as content licensing, sales of digital albums, sales of customized artist-related merchandises, live performances and concerts, and artist management services; and music subscriptions, as well as offers advertising services across its social entertainment platforms. The company is headquartered in Shenzhen, China. Tencent Music Entertainment Group operates as a subsidiary of Tencent Holdings Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Tencent Music Entertainment Group reported revenue of 32.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 31.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound +0.6%/yr. Reported net income was 10.8B CNY in FY2025, compounding +37.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100

Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

HK$32.1B

Latest YoY

+12.8%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+4.2%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+1.9%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (9Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+24.8%

Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

≈ +29.3%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.

Earnings growth per share+23.9%

Dividend yield5.4%

Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 23.9% vs 10Y 63.7%, flattening

Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16.2% (2020) → 41.1% (2025) · rising

Worst earnings drop27% (2021) · in HKD

⚠ Final year 2025 sits 123% above trend (one-off), rate approximate

Revenue +0.6%/yr

FY21 31.2B CNY

FY22 28.3B CNY

FY23 27.8B CNY

FY24 28.4B CNY

FY25 32.1B CNY

Net income +37.3%/yr

FY21 3.0B CNY

FY22 3.7B CNY

FY23 4.9B CNY

FY24 6.6B CNY

FY25 10.8B CNY

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Tencent Music Entertainment Group · Fair Value
HK$66.77 +53%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1698" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Tencent Music Entertainment Group · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">HK$66.77</b> <span style="color:#7BB290;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">+53%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:#7BB290;font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tencent Music Entertainment Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1698

Peer Group

Internet Content & Information · 153 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation

Quality Score 75 · Top 25%

Fair Value upside +105% · Top 25%

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 12% · Above median

Return on assets 6% · Top 25%

Net margin (TTM) 26% · Top 25%

Operating margin (TTM) 30% · Top 25%

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth 7% · Above median

Dividend yield (TTM) 5.4% · Top 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.04× · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 10.4× · Cheapest 25%

P/B 1.39× · Cheaper than median

P/S (TTM) 3.34× · Pricier than median

P/FCF 1.4× · Cheaper than median

EV/EBITDA 9.6× · Cheaper than median

PEG 1.11× · Cheaper than median

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Tencent Music Entertainment Group deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years-6.0 % per year

Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+1.9 % p.a.

Sector median revenue growth+1.6 %

FCF yield on price10.18 %

Discount rate (WACC) in the models9.2 %

The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE100 · sector 0

FUTURE37 · sector 31

PAST48 · sector 10

HEALTH98 · sector 98

DIVIDEND100 · sector 35

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Internet Content & Information stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 21, 2026).

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Alphabet Inc GOOGL	$338.46	$145.14	−57%
Meta Platforms, Inc META	$616.77	$534.91	−13%
Tencent Holdings 0700	HK$435.40	HK$450.18	+3%
Spotify Technology S.A SPOT	$542.43	$212.64	−61%
Reddit, Inc RDDT	$153.29	$39.59	−74%
Baidu, Inc 89888	HK$79.10	HK$28.84	−64%
Kuaishou Technology, an investment holding company, 81024	HK$34.50	HK$63.28	+83%
NAVER Corporation 035420	213,500 KRW	231,585 KRW	+8%
REA Group REA	A$177.42	A$88.53	−50%
Pinterest, Inc PINS	$20.40	$10.07	−51%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 21, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$66.77 versus a price of HK$31.20, about +114% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of 1698?

Our model-based fair value for Tencent Music Entertainment Group is HK$66.77 (as of Aug 21, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$31.20.

What is the quality score of 1698?

Tencent Music Entertainment Group has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$66.77 (as of Aug 21, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$46.40, optimistic scenario HK$89.40. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Tencent Music Entertainment Group stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at HK$66.77, about +114% upside versus a price of HK$31.20 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$46.40, optimistic scenario HK$89.40. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698)?

Tencent Music Entertainment Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$33.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 21, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 1698?

The net profit margin of Tencent Music Entertainment Group is about 26.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 26.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does Tencent Music Entertainment Group pay a dividend?

Tencent Music Entertainment Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.38% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 21, 2026).

What growth is priced into Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tencent Music Entertainment Group would have to grow free cash flow by -6.0 % per year for ten years (discount rate 9.2 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.9 % per year. As of Aug 21, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1698 use?

Our models discount Tencent Music Entertainment Group at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.77, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

What is the intrinsic value of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tencent Music Entertainment Group it is HK$66.77 per share (as of Aug 21, 2026), against a price of HK$31.20. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Tencent Music Entertainment Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Aug 21, 2026, 1698 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$31.20, fair value HK$66.77, a gap of about +114% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of 1698?

No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$31.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$66.77). For Tencent Music Entertainment Group the two are HK$35.57 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Tencent Music Entertainment Group worth?

The market values Tencent Music Entertainment Group at about HK$112B (market capitalisation, as of Aug 21, 2026). Per share that is HK$31.20; our models calculate a fair value of HK$66.77 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1698?

Our models span a range for Tencent Music Entertainment Group: cautious scenario HK$46.40, base HK$66.77, optimistic HK$89.40 per share (as of Aug 21, 2026, price HK$31.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of 1698?

Tencent Music Entertainment Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.4 (as of Aug 21, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$66.77 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 1.4, P/S 3.3, EV/EBITDA 9.6.

What is the PEG ratio of 1698?

The PEG ratio of Tencent Music Entertainment Group is 1.11 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Aug 21, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.

How solid is the balance sheet of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698)?

Balance-sheet figures for Tencent Music Entertainment Group (as of Aug 21, 2026): return on equity 12.0%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 75/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is 1698 from its 52-week high?

Tencent Music Entertainment Group trades at HK$31.20, about 69% below its 52-week high of HK$101.37 (as of Aug 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$66.77 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Tencent Music Entertainment Group?

From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Alphabet Inc, Meta Platforms, Inc, Tencent Holdings, Spotify Technology S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Tencent Music Entertainment Group stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Aug 21, 2026: price HK$31.20, calculated fair value HK$66.77 (+114%), Quality Score 75/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of 1698 calculated?

We run Tencent Music Entertainment Group through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$66.77, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 32.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Tencent Music Entertainment Group currently trades 114 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.

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