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Spotify Technology S.A (639) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Spotify Technology S.A €487, price €423, upside +15.1%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Spotify Technology S.A
639 · XETRAUndervaluedQuality growthThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.
✓Fair value €486.75 · Undervalued (+15.1%)
✓Quality 69/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +18.5 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 15.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 72/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €69.03 – €668.30 · fair‑value band €299.36 – €673.81 · the €423.00 price screens below the €486.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Spotify Technology S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides audio streaming subscription services worldwide. It operates in two segments, Premium and Ad-Supported.
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Spotify Technology S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides audio streaming subscription services worldwide. It operates in two segments, Premium and Ad-Supported. The Premium segment offers online and offline streaming access to its catalog of music and podcasts, including video, lossless music, and audiobooks in select markets through subscription offerings primarily sold directly to end users and partners. The Ad-Supported segment provides limited on-demand online access to its catalog of music and online and offline access to its catalog of podcasts on computers, tablets, mobile devices, and other smart devices. The company also offers sales, distribution and marketing, contract research and development, and customer and other support services. Spotify Technology S.A. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Spotify Technology S.A (639) currently trades at €423.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €486.75, implying the stock looks roughly 13.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €283.56 per share, and 2 of the 24 models we run sit above the €423.00 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €100.29, and 22 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €299.36 (bear) to €673.81 (bull), the price of €423.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Spotify Technology S.A reported revenue of €17.2B in FY2025 versus €10.1B in FY2021, a compound +14.3%/yr. Reported net income was €2.2B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €89.0B · P/E ratio 32.8 · P/S ratio 4.23 · EPS (TTM) €12.88 · Net margin 12.9% · Return on equity 38.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7% · Operating margin 15.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 15%, 639 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €299.36
Fair Value €486.75
Bull €673.81
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€9.74 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
€228.35
€391.59
€825.09
75
5Y EBITDA Exit
€148.13
€248.39
€391.19
74
EPV
€109.71
€124.98
€138.34
74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
€228.35
€391.59
€825.09
75
Owner Earnings
€183.46
€372.76
€751.71
72
5Y Revenue Exit
€130.75
€209.52
€328.00
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
€148.13
€248.39
€391.19
74
5Y P/E Exit
€200.62
€373.11
€587.10
69
10Y Revenue Exit
€157.07
€252.59
€386.56
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
€171.85
€283.56
€468.07
67
10Y P/E Exit
€208.22
€377.10
€649.95
61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
€73.15
€465.56
€650.70
63
Lynch FV
€134.64
€192.35
€250.05
61
PEG = 1.0
€134.64
€192.35
€250.05
57
EPV
€109.71
€124.98
€138.34
74
Multiples
P/E Multiple
€177.50
€236.67
€295.84
63
P/S Multiple
€75.22
€100.30
€125.37
58
P/B Multiple
€121.52
€162.03
€202.53
55
EV/EBIT
€162.40
€210.50
€258.60
66
EV/EBITDA
€118.76
€152.31
€185.87
67
EV/Revenue
€88.30
€118.38
€148.47
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
€20.25
€27.14
€40.51
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
€220.85
€433.38
€815.79
74
Rev-Margin DCF
€130.75
€211.43
€327.13
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
€69.38
€100.29
€215.65
65
ROIC Compounder
€124.85
€162.42
€210.82
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
€194.99
€278.55
€362.12
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
69/100
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27
Profitability
77
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
62
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
73
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
93
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
26
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
34
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
16
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
61
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +24.1% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.1%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−3.5% (2020) → 12.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.3% a year for the price and +9.8% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+13.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+14.2%
Projected 2028 (sales)+12.7%
Projected 2029 (sales)+11.2%
Projected 2030 (sales)+9.6%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: German Stocks
- Valuation of the Germany market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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| Tencent Holdings 0700 | HK$431.00 | HK$707.84 | +64% |
| Baidu, Inc 9888 | HK$88.55 | HK$49.16 | −44% |
| Reddit, Inc RDDT | $145.36 | $131.44 | −10% |
| NAVER Corporation 035420 | 194,700 KRW | 314,922 KRW | +62% |
| Kuaishou Technology, an investment holding company, 1024 | HK$30.02 | HK$101.50 | +238% |
| Tencent Music Entertainment Group 1698 | HK$32.38 | HK$71.46 | +121% |
| REA Group REA | A$157.50 | A$173.25 | +10% |
| Kakao Corp 035720 | 33,450 KRW | 32,003 KRW | −4% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Spotify Technology S.A (639) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €486.75 versus a price of €423.00, about +15% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 639?
Our model-based fair value for Spotify Technology S.A is €486.75 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €423.00.
What is the quality score of 639?
Spotify Technology S.A has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Spotify Technology S.A (639)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €486.75 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €299.36, optimistic scenario €673.81. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Spotify Technology S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €486.75, about +15% upside versus a price of €423.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €299.36, optimistic scenario €673.81. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Spotify Technology S.A (639)?
Spotify Technology S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €17.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Spotify Technology S.A (639)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Spotify Technology S.A would have to grow free cash flow by +17.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.5 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 639 use?
Our models discount Spotify Technology S.A at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.56, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Spotify Technology S.A that is +17.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Spotify Technology S.A (639) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Spotify Technology S.A grew +18.5 % a year. The price currently implies +17.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Spotify Technology S.A (639) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Spotify Technology S.A (+17.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Spotify Technology S.A (639)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.23 %: that much free cash flow Spotify Technology S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Spotify Technology S.A (639)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Spotify Technology S.A it is €486.75 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of €423.00. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Spotify Technology S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 639 trades below its calculated fair value: price €423.00, fair value €486.75, a gap of about +15% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 639?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€423.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€486.75). For Spotify Technology S.A the two are €63.75 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Spotify Technology S.A worth?
The market values Spotify Technology S.A at about €89.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is €423.00; our models calculate a fair value of €486.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 639?
Our models span a range for Spotify Technology S.A: cautious scenario €299.36, base €486.75, optimistic €673.81 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price €423.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 639 from its 52-week high?
Spotify Technology S.A trades at €423.00, about 30% below its 52-week high of €605.10 and 20% above the low of €352.75 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €486.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Spotify Technology S.A?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Alphabet Inc, Meta Platforms, Inc, Tencent Holdings, Baidu, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Spotify Technology S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price €423.00, calculated fair value €486.75 (+15%), Quality Score 69/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 639 calculated?
We run Spotify Technology S.A through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €486.75, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Spotify Technology S.A currently trades 13 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Spotify Technology S.A (639)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €423.00. Our model-based fair value is €486.75, about +15% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Spotify Technology S.A right now?
A fairly wide model range (€299.36 to €673.81) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Spotify Technology S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Spotify Technology S.A (639)?
The market capitalisation of Spotify Technology S.A is €89.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Spotify Technology S.A (639)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Spotify Technology S.A is 32.8. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Spotify Technology S.A (639)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Spotify Technology S.A is 4.23 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Spotify Technology S.A (639)?
Earnings per share at Spotify Technology S.A are €12.88 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 32.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Spotify Technology S.A (639)?
The net margin of Spotify Technology S.A is 12.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Spotify Technology S.A (639)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Spotify Technology S.A is 38.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Spotify Technology S.A (639)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Spotify Technology S.A is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Spotify Technology S.A (639)?
The operating margin of Spotify Technology S.A is 15.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Spotify Technology S.A (639)?
Revenue at Spotify Technology S.A is growing +8.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Spotify Technology S.A (639)?
Earnings per share at Spotify Technology S.A are growing +222% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Spotify Technology S.A (639) hold?
Spotify Technology S.A holds more cash than debt, €3.3B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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