Baidu, Inc (9888) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · HK · Market cap HK$282B
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from HK$57.90 to HK$75.26 (+30.0%) since Jul 5, 2026. Share price −9.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 30% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$75.26). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$75.10 – HK$252.00 · fair‑value band HK$52.68 – HK$75.26 · the HK$106.80 price screens above the HK$75.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Baidu, Inc (9888) currently trades at HK$106.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$75.26, implying the stock looks roughly 29.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Baidu, Inc generated revenue of HK$129B at a net margin of 1.0%. Revenue declined 1.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.3%. Net debt stands at HK$76.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$52.68 (bear case) to HK$75.26 (bull case); at HK$106.80, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -20% fair-value upside, at -30%, 9888 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (HK$154.02) versus Economic Profit (HK$24.82). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Baidu, Inc. provides internet content, value-added telecommunication-based, internet map, and online audio and video services in the People's Republic of China. It operates in two segments, Baidu General Business and iQIYI. The Baidu General Business segment offers products and services for mobile ecosystem, AI cloud, and intelligent driving.
Full company description
Baidu, Inc. provides internet content, value-added telecommunication-based, internet map, and online audio and video services in the People's Republic of China. It operates in two segments, Baidu General Business and iQIYI. The Baidu General Business segment offers products and services for mobile ecosystem, AI cloud, and intelligent driving. This segment operates Baidu App that enables users to access search, feed, content, and other services through mobile devices; and Haokan, which offers a range of various user generated and professionally produced short videos. It also provides a portfolio of knowledge and information products, including Baidu Wiki, which features columns and videos, such as encyclopedia of intangible cultural heritage, digital museum and recorder of history; Baidu Knows, an online community where users can pose questions to other users, such as individuals, professionals, and enterprises; Baidu Experience, an online platform where users share daily knowledge and experience; ERNIE Bot, new AI-native product that serves as a multi-round conversational AI assistant on both PC and mobile; and Baidu Post, a social media that allows users to post text, image, audio and video content, and reply to original curation forming valuable discussion groups, as well as livestreaming services, including live streaming and AI-powered digital human livestreaming. In addition, the company offers DuerOS smart assistant for the Chinese language; Apollo Go autonomous ride-hailing service; online marketing services; Baidu Maps, a voice-enabled mobile app providing users with travel-related services; and AI chips. The iQIYI segment produces and distributes professionally produced content. This segment offers online entertainment video services, including online videos, experience services, online games, comics, and others. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Baidu, Inc reported revenue of HK$126B in FY2025 versus HK$124B in FY2021, a compound +0.2%/yr. Reported net income was HK$5.4B in FY2025, compounding −14.6%/yr from FY2021.
9888 screens 30% overvalued. Compare with Alphabet Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Baidu to Report Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results on August 18, 2026
- Baidu (NasdaqGS:BIDU) Starts London Robotaxi Tests And Wins Hong Kong Driverless Permit
- Baidu (BIDU) In Focus Following Governance Changes As Fair Value Views Split
- Baidu's Apollo Go and Freenow by Lyft Begin Road Testing in London
Peer Group
Internet Content & Information · 151 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Internet Content & Information stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet Inc GOOGL | $354.46 | $145.14 | -59% |
| Meta Platforms, Inc META | $669.21 | $534.91 | -20% |
| Tencent Holdings 0700 | HK$460.20 | HK$467.50 | +2% |
| Spotify Technology S.A SPOT | $485.38 | $209.56 | -57% |
| Reddit, Inc RDDT | $195.34 | $39.59 | -80% |
| Kuaishou Technology, an investment holding company, 1024 | HK$44.70 | HK$101.03 | +126% |
| NAVER Corporation 035420 | 191,300 KRW | 231,585 KRW | +21% |
| Tencent Music Entertainment Group 1698 | HK$34.74 | HK$65.78 | +89% |
| REA Group REA | A$149.14 | A$88.53 | -41% |
| Pinterest, Inc PINS | $22.52 | $14.71 | -35% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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