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Pony AI Inc. (2026) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Pony AI Inc. stock HK$16.76, price HK$37.58, upside -55.4%, quality 32 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Technology HK · Based in China

PA Pony AI Inc. logo Thin data Oct 30, 2026

Pony AI Inc.

2026 · HK
Weakest Setup

Our calculation puts a fair price 55% below what the stock costs today.

Revenue last quarter +69% vs. a year ago.
Expensive Growth (revenue 3y +9.6 %/yr in USD)
Fair value HK$16.76 · Strongly overvalued (−55.4%)
Quality 32/100
Loss-making · -118.5% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/10)
Narrow moat 12/100
Thin data
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$136.50 HK$37.44 Fair Value HK$16.76 Nov 2025 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 30, 2026.

How to read this chart

12‑month range HK$37.44 – HK$136.50 · fair‑value band HK$11.07 – HK$20.96 · the HK$37.58 price screens above the HK$16.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 30, 2026.

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Company profile

Pony AI Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the autonomous mobility business in the People's Republic of China and internationally.

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The company provides robotaxi services that include autonomous vehicle (AV) engineering solutions, such as AV software deployment and maintenance; vehicle integration and engineering; and road-testing services to original equipment manufacturers and transportation network companies.

It also offers robotruck services that provide transportation services to logistics platforms.

In addition, the company engages in the licensing and applications business that comprises personally-owned vehicle intelligent solutions, including intelligent driving software solutions, proprietary vehicle domain controller products, and data analytics tools; vehicle integration services, software development, and licensing services; and vehicle-to-everything (V2X) products and services to enhance road safety.

The company's customers include OEMs and TNCs; OEMs and logistics platforms; and sensor and hardware component suppliers. Pony AI Inc. was incorporated in 2016 and is based in Guangzhou, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

Pony AI Inc. (2026) currently trades at HK$37.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$16.76, 55.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 91/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: HK$11.07 (bear) to HK$20.96 (bull), the price of HK$37.58 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Pony AI Inc. reported revenue of $90.0M in FY2025 versus $63.3M in FY2021, a compound +9.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$134M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$16.3B (≈ $2.1B) Mid · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.6281 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin −149% · Return on equity −6.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −22.6% · Operating margin −182% · Revenue (TTM) $125M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 72% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 35% fair-value upside, at −55%, 2026 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$11.07 Fair Value HK$16.76 Bull HK$20.96
Price HK$37.58 · Upside -55.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) HK$13.02 HK$19.72 HK$24.66 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$13.02 HK$19.72 HK$24.66 51

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 32/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 76
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 16
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 88
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 0
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 0
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 0
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 2
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 28/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−2,652.5% (2021) → −289.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

2026 screens overvalued: fair value 55% below the price. Compare with International Business Machines Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Information Technology Services · 485 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −55.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −7.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −118.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −181.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 68.8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 0.3% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.26× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 16.61× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 43
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 30
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 35
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)6 · sector 40

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Information Technology Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation CTSH $62.52 $138.62 +122% vs 2026
Wipro Limited WIPRO ₹187.00 ₹287.86 +54% vs 2026
Infosys Limited INFY ₹1,163 ₹1,676 +44% vs 2026
HCL Technologies Limited HCLTECH ₹1,420 ₹1,926 +36% vs 2026
Accenture plc ACN $247.22 $332.90 +35% vs 2026
Tata Consultancy Services Limited TCS ₹2,478 ₹2,993 +21% vs 2026
Amadeus IT Group AMS €57.34 €65.98 +15% vs 2026
CDW Corporation CDW $161.41 $165.54 +3% vs 2026
Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc BR $177.09 $161.47 −9% vs 2026
International Business Machines Corporation IBM $250.25 $185.39 −26% vs 2026

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Pony AI Inc. · Fair Value
HK$16.76 −55%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Pony AI Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2026

Frequently asked questions

Is Pony AI Inc. (2026) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$16.76 versus a price of HK$37.58, about −55% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2026?
Our model-based fair value for Pony AI Inc. is HK$16.76 (as of Oct 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$37.58.
What is the quality score of 2026?
Pony AI Inc. has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pony AI Inc. (2026)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$16.76 (as of Oct 30, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$11.07, optimistic scenario HK$20.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pony AI Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$16.76, about −55% upside versus a price of HK$37.58 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$11.07, optimistic scenario HK$20.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pony AI Inc. (2026)?
Pony AI Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $125M (latest available figure, as of Oct 30, 2026).
Does Pony AI Inc. pay a dividend?
Pony AI Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 0.31% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 30, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Pony AI Inc. (2026)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pony AI Inc. it is HK$16.76 per share (as of Oct 30, 2026), against a price of HK$37.58. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Pony AI Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 30, 2026, 2026 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$37.58, fair value HK$16.76, a gap of about −55% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2026?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$37.58); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$16.76). For Pony AI Inc. the two are HK$20.82 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pony AI Inc. worth?
The market values Pony AI Inc. at about HK$16.3B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 30, 2026). Per share that is HK$37.58; our models calculate a fair value of HK$16.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2026?
Our models span a range for Pony AI Inc.: cautious scenario HK$11.07, base HK$16.76, optimistic HK$20.96 per share (as of Oct 30, 2026, price HK$37.58). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pony AI Inc. (2026)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pony AI Inc. (as of Oct 30, 2026): return on equity −6.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2026 from its 52-week high?
Pony AI Inc. trades at HK$37.58, about 72% below its 52-week high of HK$136.50 and at the low of HK$37.44 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$16.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Pony AI Inc.?
From the same area (Technology) we also value International Business Machines Corporation, Accenture plc, Tata Consultancy Services Limited, Infosys Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pony AI Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 30, 2026: price HK$37.58, calculated fair value HK$16.76 (−55%), Quality Score 32/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2026 calculated?
We run Pony AI Inc. through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$16.76, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Pony AI Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Pony AI Inc. (2026)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was HK$37.58. Our model-based fair value is HK$16.76, about −55% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Pony AI Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$20.96). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$11.07 to HK$20.96) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Pony AI Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Pony AI Inc. (2026)?
The market capitalisation of Pony AI Inc. is HK$16.3B (≈ $2.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Pony AI Inc. (2026)?
Earnings per share at Pony AI Inc. are HK$−0.6281. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Pony AI Inc. (2026)?
The dividend yield of Pony AI Inc. is 0.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Pony AI Inc. (2026)?
The net margin of Pony AI Inc. is −149% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Pony AI Inc. (2026)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Pony AI Inc. is −6.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Pony AI Inc. (2026)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Pony AI Inc. is −22.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Pony AI Inc. (2026)?
The operating margin of Pony AI Inc. is −182% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Pony AI Inc. (2026)?
Revenue at Pony AI Inc. is growing +68.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Pony AI Inc. (2026) generate?
The free cash flow of Pony AI Inc. is −$209M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Pony AI Inc. (2026) hold?
Pony AI Inc. holds more cash than debt, $265M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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