Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd (2238) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd HK$3.38, price HK$2.55, upside +32.6%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.04 – HK$7.84 · fair‑value band HK$1.56 – HK$5.66 · the HK$2.55 price screens below the HK$3.38 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Follow Guangzhou Automobile Group Co in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Guangzhou Automobile Group Co is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, research, develops, manufactures, and sells vehicles and motorcycles, and parts and components in Mainland China and internationally. It operates through Vehicles and Related Operations; and Others segments.
Show more
Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, research, develops, manufactures, and sells vehicles and motorcycles, and parts and components in Mainland China and internationally. It operates through Vehicles and Related Operations; and Others segments. The company produces and sells passenger vehicles comprising sedans, SUVs, and MPVs; commercial vehicles consisting of fuel-powered and new energy heavy-duty trucks, new energy light-duty trucks, new energy buses, and pickup trucks; automotive parts, such as engines, gearboxes, car seats, micro motors, shifters, power batteries, battery cells and electric drives and controllers, and interior and exterior decorations; and motorcycles, including sport bikes, scooters, and electric bicycles and motorcycles. It also offers logistics, second-hand vehicle, supporting, and mobility transportation services. In addition, the company provides automobile credit, insurance brokerage, financial investment, finance lease, and other financing services. Further, it trades in automobiles, automotive parts, and steel. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, the People's Republic of China. Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Guangzhou Automobile Industry Group Co. Ltd.
Stock analysis
Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd (2238) currently trades at HK$2.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.38, implying the stock looks roughly 24.6% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$6.86 per share, and 1 of the 3 models we run sit above the HK$2.55 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$1.06, and 2 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$1.56 (bear) to HK$5.66 (bull), the price of HK$2.55 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd reported revenue of 94.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 75.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was −8.6B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$26.2B (≈ $3.3B) · P/S ratio 0.23 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.4100 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin −9.1% · Return on equity −10.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.9% · Operating margin −13.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 29 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at 33%, 2238 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$1.56Fair Value HK$3.38Bull HK$5.66
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.25/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−12.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.3% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
8.9% (2020) → −17.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 116 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Below median
Fair Value upside+33% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−14% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.09× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2238
Frequently asked questions
Is Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd (2238) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$3.38 versus a price of HK$2.55, about +33% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2238?
Our model-based fair value for Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd is HK$3.38 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.55.
What is the quality score of 2238?
Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd (2238)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$3.38 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.56, optimistic scenario HK$5.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$3.38, about +33% upside versus a price of HK$2.55 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.56, optimistic scenario HK$5.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd (2238)?
Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 96.9B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.24% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd (2238)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd it is HK$3.38 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$2.55. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 2238 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$2.55, fair value HK$3.38, a gap of about +33% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2238?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$2.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$3.38). For Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd the two are HK$0.8310 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd worth?
The market values Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd at about HK$26.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$2.55; our models calculate a fair value of HK$3.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2238?
Our models span a range for Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$1.56, base HK$3.38, optimistic HK$5.66 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$2.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd (2238)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −10.1%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2238 from its 52-week high?
Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd trades at HK$2.55, about 40% below its 52-week high of HK$4.25 and 25% above the low of HK$2.04 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$3.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Hyundai Motor Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$2.55, calculated fair value HK$3.38 (+33%), Quality Score 39/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2238 calculated?
We run Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$3.38, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd currently trades 33 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd (2238)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$2.55. Our model-based fair value is HK$3.38, about +33% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (39/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide (HK$1.56 to HK$5.66). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd (2238)?
The market capitalisation of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd is HK$26.2B (≈ $3.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd (2238)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd is 0.23 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd (2238)?
Earnings per share at Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd are HK$−0.4100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd (2238)?
The dividend yield of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd is 3.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd (2238)?
The net margin of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd is −9.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd (2238)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd is −10.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd (2238)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd is 0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd (2238)?
The operating margin of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd is −13.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd (2238)?
Revenue at Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd is growing +1.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd (2238)?
Earnings per share at Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd are growing −80.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd (2238) generate?
The free cash flow of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd is −24.0B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd (2238) carry?
The net debt of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd is 9.8B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026