Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $213B
Toyota Motor Corporation
TM · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from $207.37 to $224.63 (+8.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +7.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 18% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range ($193.65 to $427.42) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from $193.65 (bear) to $427.42 (bull), base $224.63. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 48/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $117.28 – $244.46 · fair‑value band $193.65 – $427.42 · the $190.09 price screens below the $224.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) currently trades at $190.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $224.63, implying the stock looks roughly 18.2% undervalued today. We read business quality at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Toyota Motor Corporation generated revenue of $50.7T at a net margin of 7.6%. Revenue grew 1.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.2%. Net debt stands at $30.7T. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $193.65 (bear case) to $427.42 (bull case); at $190.09, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 45% fair-value upside, at 18%, TM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($416.06) versus Economic Profit ($100.59). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial vehicles, and related parts and accessories in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, Central and South America, Oceania, Africa, the Middle East, and internationally.
Full company description
Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial vehicles, and related parts and accessories in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, Central and South America, Oceania, Africa, the Middle East, and internationally. The company operates through Automotive, Financial Services, and All Other segments. The company offers subcompact and compact cars; mini-vehicles; mid-size, luxury, sports, and specialty cars; recreational and sport-utility vehicles; pickup trucks; minivans; trucks; and buses. It also develops and sells battery and hybrid electric vehicles and batteries. In addition, the company provides financial services, such as retail financing and leasing, wholesale financing, insurance, and credit cards. Further, it operates GAZOO.com, a web portal for automobile information, as well as engages in telecommunications and other businesses. It offers vehicles under the Toyota and Lexus brand names. Toyota Motor Corporation was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Toyota, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Toyota Motor Corporation reported revenue of ¥50.7T in FY2026 versus ¥31.4T in FY2022, a compound +12.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥4.0T in FY2026, compounding +8.7%/yr from FY2022.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Top Research Reports for Apple, Shell & Toyota Motor
- Toyota Q1 Earnings Miss Estimates on High Labor Cost & R&D Expenses
- Toyota targets 10.5 million vehicles in 2027 – report
- Ryder Recognized by Toyota as "Manufacturing Carrier of the Year"
Peer Group
Auto Manufacturers · 118 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BYD Company 81211 | HK$80.55 | HK$50.85 | -37% |
| Hyundai Motor Company 005380 | 425,000 KRW | 616,918 KRW | +45% |
| General Motors Company GM | $77.72 | $56.93 | -27% |
| Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft BMWM5N | 1,909 MXN | 2,944 MXN | +54% |
| Ferrari N.V RACE | $376.64 | $228.05 | -39% |
| Ford Motor Company F | C$11.86 | C$4.00 | -66% |
| Mercedes-Benz Group BENZ | C$20.44 | C$35.15 | +72% |
| Volkswagen AG VOW | 2,149 CZK | 7,191 CZK | +235% |
| Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI | ₹13,803 | ₹8,236 | -40% |
| Kia Corporation 000270 | 145,000 KRW | 350,994 KRW | +142% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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