2438 (2438) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · Market cap HK$472M

2 2438 2438 · HK

PriceHK$0.3050

Fair ValueHK$0.1100

Upside-63.9%

Quality34/100

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Evidence: Low Range HK$0.0800 – HK$0.1400

Fair value as of: Jul 2, 2026

From 1 valuation models · updated today

Share price −23.8% over the past month.

Price vs Fair Value (12 months)

12‑month range HK$0.2950 – HK$0.9400 · fair‑value band HK$0.0800 – HK$0.1400 · the HK$0.3050 price screens above the HK$0.1100 fair value. As of Jul 2, 2026.

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Analysis

2438 (2438) currently trades at HK$0.3050, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1100 — implying the stock looks roughly 63.9% overvalued today. We read business quality at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Over the trailing twelve months, 2438 generated revenue of HK$323M at a net margin of -21.3%. Revenue declined 36.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -25.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$94.8M. Fundamentals as of Jul 2, 2026

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$323M

Revenue growth (YoY) -36.7%

Net margin -21.3%

Return on equity -25.6%

Free cash flow −HK$98.3M FY2025

Operating margin -53.7%

More key figures

Net cash HK$94.8M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

2438 reported revenue of HK$323M in FY2025 versus HK$398M in FY2021, a compound −5.1%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$68.9M in FY2025.

Revenue −5.1%/yr

FY21 HK$398M

FY22 HK$500M

FY23 HK$507M

FY24 HK$390M

FY25 HK$323M

Net income

FY21 −HK$276M

FY22 −HK$670M

FY23 −HK$803M

FY24 −HK$721M

FY25 −HK$68.9M

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6 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 2, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Microsoft Corporation MSF	€379.75	€183.26	-52%
MSFT MSFT	7,019 MXN	4,222 MXN	-40%
Oracle Corporation ORCL	$213.68	$43.87	-79%
Palantir Technologies Inc PTX	€134.20	€19.01	-86%
Palo Alto Networks, Inc 5AP	€252.70	€34.18	-86%
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Frequently asked questions

Is 2438 (2438) undervalued?

As of Jul 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1100 versus a price of HK$0.3050 — about −64% (overvalued). Model-based estimate, not financial advice.

What is the fair value of 2438?

Our model-based fair value for 2438 is HK$0.1100 (as of Jul 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.3050.

What is the quality score of 2438?

2438 has a Quality Score of 34/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.

What is the revenue of 2438 (2438)?

2438 reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$323M (latest available figure, as of Jul 2, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 2438?

The net profit margin of 2438 is about -21.3%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.