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Palo Alto Networks, Inc (5AP) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Palo Alto Networks, Inc €59.68, price €358, upside -83.3%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Technology · DE · ISIN US6974351057

PA Broad data Sep 28, 2026

Palo Alto Networks, Inc

5AP · XETRA

Stretched ValuationQuality growthStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value €59.68 · Strongly overvalued (−83.3%)
!Quality 54/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 3y +18.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 8.0% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 34/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€357.95 €51.77 Fair Value €59.68 Aug 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €51.77 – €357.95 · fair‑value band €41.78 – €77.58 · the €357.95 price screens above the €59.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

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Company profile

Palo Alto Networks, Inc. provides cybersecurity solutions in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Japan. It offers Prisma Access, a secure access service edge solution; Strata Cloud Manager, a network security management solution; and Prisma AIRS to protect customers' entire AI ecosystem.

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Palo Alto Networks, Inc. provides cybersecurity solutions in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Japan. It offers Prisma Access, a secure access service edge solution; Strata Cloud Manager, a network security management solution; and Prisma AIRS to protect customers' entire AI ecosystem. It provides a comprehensive cloud native application protection platform; and Code to Cloud platform, as well as offers VM-Series and CN-Series virtual firewalls for inline network security on multi- and hybrid-cloud environments. It provides security operation solutions through the Cortex platform that includes Cortex XSIAM, an AI-driven security operations platform; Cortex XDR to prevent, detect, and respond to cybersecurity attacks; and Cortex XSOAR for security orchestration, automation, and response; and Cortex Xpanse for attack surface management, as well as offers threat intelligence and advisory services under the Unit 42 name. It provides subscription services covering the areas of threat prevention, malware and persistent threat, URL filtering, laptop and mobile device protection, DNS security, Internet of Things security, SaaS security API, and SaaS security inline; and threat intelligence, data loss prevention, services to resolve network disruptions, and sensitive data protection. It offers professional services, including architecture design and planning, implementation, configuration, and firewall migration; education services, such as certifications, as well as online and in-classroom training; and support services. It sells its products and services through its channel partners, as well as directly to enterprises, service providers, and government entities operating in various industries, including education, energy, financial services, government entities, healthcare, Internet and media, manufacturing, public sector, and telecommunications. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.

Stock analysis

Palo Alto Networks, Inc (5AP) currently trades at €357.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €59.68, 83.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €54.10 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the €357.95 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €11.38, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: €41.78 (bear) to €77.58 (bull), the price of €357.95 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Palo Alto Networks, Inc reported revenue of $9.2B in FY2025 versus $5.5B in FY2022, a compound +18.8%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap €239B · P/E ratio 354.4 · P/S ratio 43.6 · EPS (TTM) €1.01 · Net margin 12.3% · Return on equity 4.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.5% · Operating margin −2.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and 195% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −83%, 5AP screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (€5.71 to €121.76). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear €41.78 Fair Value €59.68 Bull €77.58
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.01 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF €60.04 €111.42 €246.72 69
5Y EBITDA Exit €31.34 €50.69 €75.20 68
EPV €13.17 €15.06 €16.74 68
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €60.04 €111.42 €246.72 69
Owner Earnings €22.91 €45.69 €91.74 66
5Y Revenue Exit €27.95 €43.14 €63.27 67
5Y EBITDA Exit €31.34 €50.69 €75.20 68
5Y P/E Exit €32.87 €54.10 €79.16 65
10Y Revenue Exit €36.89 €56.10 €85.60 61
10Y EBITDA Exit €39.75 €62.02 €96.64 62
10Y P/E Exit €40.82 €64.70 €100.31 58
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €8.40 €49.84 €69.42 61
Lynch FV €14.16 €20.23 €26.30 58
PEG = 1.0 €14.16 €20.23 €26.30 55
EPV €13.17 €15.06 €16.74 68
Multiples
P/E Multiple €20.39 €27.19 €33.99 63
P/S Multiple €15.76 €21.01 €26.26 58
P/B Multiple €15.76 €21.01 €26.26 55
EV/EBIT €19.74 €25.50 €31.26 63
EV/EBITDA €20.63 €26.68 €32.73 64
EV/Revenue €14.80 €20.08 €25.37 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €4.26 €5.71 €8.53 51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €58.55 €121.76 €227.79 68
Rev-Margin DCF €27.95 €43.18 €64.47 66
Economic Profit
Residual Income €8.59 €11.38 €18.12 66
ROIC Compounder €15.49 €21.75 €30.60 66
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €21.15 €30.22 €39.28 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 80

Profitability 45
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 99
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 74
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 32
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 47
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 91
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 49
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+33.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+33.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−3% → 14%

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+30.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+19.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +27.7% a year for the price and +16.5% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+22.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+22.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)+19.8%
Projected 2029 (sales)+17.3%
Projected 2030 (sales)+14.7%

5AP screens overvalued: fair value 83% below the price. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →

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Values & ESG

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Palo Alto Networks, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/5AP

Frequently asked questions

Is Palo Alto Networks, Inc (5AP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €59.68 versus a price of €357.95, about −83% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 5AP?
Our model-based fair value for Palo Alto Networks, Inc is €59.68 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €357.95.
What is the quality score of 5AP?
Palo Alto Networks, Inc has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Palo Alto Networks, Inc (5AP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €59.68 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €41.78, optimistic scenario €77.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Palo Alto Networks, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €59.68, about −83% upside versus a price of €357.95 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €41.78, optimistic scenario €77.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Palo Alto Networks, Inc (5AP)?
Palo Alto Networks, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $10.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Palo Alto Networks, Inc (5AP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Palo Alto Networks, Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +30.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +18.8 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 5AP use?
Our models discount Palo Alto Networks, Inc at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.91, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Palo Alto Networks, Inc that is +30.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Palo Alto Networks, Inc (5AP) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Palo Alto Networks, Inc grew +18.8 % a year. The price currently implies +30.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Palo Alto Networks, Inc (5AP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +15.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Palo Alto Networks, Inc (+30.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Palo Alto Networks, Inc (5AP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.29 %: that much free cash flow Palo Alto Networks, Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Palo Alto Networks, Inc (5AP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Palo Alto Networks, Inc it is €59.68 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of €357.95. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Palo Alto Networks, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, 5AP trades above its calculated fair value: price €357.95, fair value €59.68, a gap of about −83% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 5AP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€357.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€59.68). For Palo Alto Networks, Inc the two are €298.27 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Palo Alto Networks, Inc worth?
The market values Palo Alto Networks, Inc at about €239B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is €357.95; our models calculate a fair value of €59.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 5AP?
Our models span a range for Palo Alto Networks, Inc: cautious scenario €41.78, base €59.68, optimistic €77.58 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price €357.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 5AP from its 52-week high?
Palo Alto Networks, Inc trades at €357.95, at its 52-week high of €357.95 and 195% above the low of €121.36 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €59.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Palo Alto Networks, Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Oracle Corporation, CrowdStrike Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Palo Alto Networks, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price €357.95, calculated fair value €59.68 (−83%), Quality Score 54/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 5AP calculated?
We run Palo Alto Networks, Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €59.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Palo Alto Networks, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Palo Alto Networks, Inc (5AP)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €357.95. Our model-based fair value is €59.68, about −83% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Palo Alto Networks, Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€77.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€41.78 to €77.58) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Palo Alto Networks, Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Palo Alto Networks, Inc (5AP)?
The market capitalisation of Palo Alto Networks, Inc is €239B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Palo Alto Networks, Inc (5AP)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Palo Alto Networks, Inc is 354.4. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Palo Alto Networks, Inc (5AP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Palo Alto Networks, Inc is 43.6 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Palo Alto Networks, Inc (5AP)?
Earnings per share at Palo Alto Networks, Inc are €1.01 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 354.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Palo Alto Networks, Inc (5AP)?
The net margin of Palo Alto Networks, Inc is 12.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Palo Alto Networks, Inc (5AP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Palo Alto Networks, Inc is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Palo Alto Networks, Inc (5AP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Palo Alto Networks, Inc is 2.5% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Palo Alto Networks, Inc (5AP)?
The operating margin of Palo Alto Networks, Inc is −2.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Palo Alto Networks, Inc (5AP)?
Revenue at Palo Alto Networks, Inc is growing +31.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Palo Alto Networks, Inc (5AP)?
Earnings per share at Palo Alto Networks, Inc are growing +60.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Palo Alto Networks, Inc (5AP) carry?
The net debt of Palo Alto Networks, Inc is $856M (fiscal year 2023, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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