Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Microsoft Corporation is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
- Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
- Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
- Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes
At a glance
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT · US
A solid business, but trading 31% above our fair value of $381.26.
As of Sep 7, 2026, the fair value of Microsoft Corporation is $381.26 per share against a price of $499.70, so the fair value sits 24% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
Fair value as of: Sep 7, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
Share price +2.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($479.79). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($191.98 to $479.79) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $207.73 – $538.66 · fair‑value band $191.98 – $479.79 · the $499.70 price screens above the $381.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.
Analysis
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) currently trades at $499.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $381.26, implying the stock looks roughly 31.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $331.60 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $499.70 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $55.77, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Microsoft Corporation generated revenue of $318B at a net margin of 39.3%. Revenue grew 18.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 34.0%. Net debt stands at $30.3B. Fundamentals as of Sep 7, 2026
Scenario range: $191.98 (bear) to $479.79 (bull), the price of $499.70 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −24%, MSFT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($13.22 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($331.60) versus Asset-Based ($30.98). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Microsoft Corporation develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions worldwide. The Productivity and Business Processes segment offers Microsoft 365 commercial, enterprise mobility + security, windows commercial, power BI, exchange, sharepoint, Microsoft teams, security and compliance, and copilot; Microsoft 365 commercial products, such …
Full company description
Microsoft Corporation develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions worldwide. The Productivity and Business Processes segment offers Microsoft 365 commercial, enterprise mobility + security, windows commercial, power BI, exchange, sharepoint, Microsoft teams, security and compliance, and copilot; Microsoft 365 commercial products, such as Windows commercial on-premises and office licensed services; Microsoft 365 consumer products and cloud services, including Microsoft 365 consumer subscriptions, office licensed on-premises, and other consumer services; LinkedIn; dynamics products and cloud services, such as dynamics 365, cloud-based applications, and on-premises ERP and CRM applications. Its Intelligent Cloud segment provides Server products and cloud services comprising Azure and other cloud services, GitHub, Nuance Healthcare, virtual desktop offerings, and other cloud services; server products, including SQL and windows server, visual studio and system center related client access licenses, and other on-premises offerings; enterprise and partner services, such as enterprise support and nuance professional services, industry solutions, Microsoft partner network, and learning experience. The Personal Computing segment provides windows and devices, such as Windows OEM licensing and devices and surface and PC accessories; gaming services and solutions, such as Xbox hardware, content, and services, first- and third-party content Xbox game pass, subscriptions, and cloud gaming, advertising, and other cloud services; search and news advertising services. It sells its products through OEMs, distributors, and resellers; and online and retail stores. The company has a strategic collaboration with Mayo Clinic, Inc. for the development of a frontier AI model for healthcare; and Global Objects, Inc. to build a retrieval-grounded generative AI world model. The company was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Redmond, Washington.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Microsoft Corporation reported revenue of $282B in FY2025 versus $168B in FY2021, a compound +13.8%/yr. Reported net income was $102B in FY2025, compounding +13.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +11.8 % · buybacks/dilution +1.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
MSFT screens 31% overvalued. Compare with Oracle Corporation →
Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 368 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Microsoft Corporation deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Information Technology sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 7, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oracle Corporation ORCL | $158.78 | $117.84 | −26% |
| Palo Alto Networks, Inc PANW | $333.26 | $36.50 | −89% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $156.29 | $61.46 | −61% |
| Synopsys, Inc SNPS | $442.61 | $101.19 | −77% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$111.01 | A$70.69 | −36% |
| CoreWeave, Inc CRWV | $105.26 | $71.79 | −32% |
| NetApp, Inc NTAP | $190.64 | $154.83 | −19% |
| Adyen N.V ADYEN | €1,007 | €707.53 | −30% |
| MongoDB, Inc MDB | $368.74 | $93.91 | −75% |
| Okta, Inc OKTA | $166.23 | $30.50 | −82% |
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