Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $2.9T
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT · US
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +28.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 45% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($358.36). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($159.08 to $358.36) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $207.73 – $538.66 · fair‑value band $159.08 – $358.36 · the $499.86 price screens above the $274.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) currently trades at $499.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $274.17, implying the stock looks roughly 45.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Microsoft Corporation generated revenue of $318B at a net margin of 39.3%. Revenue grew 18.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 34.0%. Net debt stands at $30.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $159.08 (bear case) to $358.36 (bull case); at $499.86, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -68% fair-value upside, at -45%, MSFT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($275.66) versus Asset-Based ($30.98). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Microsoft Corporation develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions worldwide. The Productivity and Business Processes segment offers Microsoft 365 commercial, enterprise mobility + security, windows commercial, power BI, exchange, sharepoint, Microsoft teams, security and compliance, and copilot; Microsoft 365 commercial products, such …
Full company description
Microsoft Corporation develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions worldwide. The Productivity and Business Processes segment offers Microsoft 365 commercial, enterprise mobility + security, windows commercial, power BI, exchange, sharepoint, Microsoft teams, security and compliance, and copilot; Microsoft 365 commercial products, such as Windows commercial on-premises and office licensed services; Microsoft 365 consumer products and cloud services, including Microsoft 365 consumer subscriptions, office licensed on-premises, and other consumer services; LinkedIn; dynamics products and cloud services, such as dynamics 365, cloud-based applications, and on-premises ERP and CRM applications. Its Intelligent Cloud segment provides Server products and cloud services comprising Azure and other cloud services, GitHub, Nuance Healthcare, virtual desktop offerings, and other cloud services; server products, including SQL and windows server, visual studio and system center related client access licenses, and other on-premises offerings; enterprise and partner services, such as enterprise support and nuance professional services, industry solutions, Microsoft partner network, and learning experience. The Personal Computing segment provides windows and devices, such as Windows OEM licensing and devices and surface and PC accessories; gaming services and solutions, such as Xbox hardware, content, and services, first- and third-party content Xbox game pass, subscriptions, and cloud gaming, advertising, and other cloud services; search and news advertising services. It sells its products through OEMs, distributors, and resellers; and online and retail stores. The company has a strategic collaboration with Mayo Clinic, Inc. for the development of a frontier AI model for healthcare; and Global Objects, Inc. to build a retrieval-grounded generative AI world model. The company was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Redmond, Washington.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Microsoft Corporation reported revenue of $282B in FY2025 versus $168B in FY2021, a compound +13.8%/yr. Reported net income was $102B in FY2025, compounding +13.5%/yr from FY2021.
MSFT screens 45% overvalued. Compare with Oracle Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- MICROSOFT CLASS ACTION DEADLINE TUESDAY AUGUST 11th: Bragar Eagel & Squire, P.C. Urges Microsoft Corporation Investors to Contact the Fi
- Jim Cramer Was “Blown Away” By Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT)’s Financials
Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 367 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oracle Corporation ORAC | C$9.08 | C$2.94 | -68% |
| Palantir Technologies Inc 1PLTR | €112.86 | €12.03 | -89% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $160.78 | $44.96 | -72% |
| Synopsys, Inc 1SNPS | €381.50 | €118.28 | -69% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$114.53 | A$70.69 | -38% |
| CoreWeave, Inc CRWV | $79.94 | $44.89 | -44% |
| Range Intelligent Computing Technology Group 300442 | ¥71.60 | ¥34.00 | -53% |
| Oracle Financial Services Software Limited OFSS | ₹11,651 | ₹5,821 | -50% |
| One97 Communications Limited PAYTM | ₹1,342 | ₹181.50 | -86% |
| Sangfor Technologies Inc 300454 | ¥88.80 | ¥16.46 | -81% |
Compare Microsoft Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Technology stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of MSFT?
What is the quality score of MSFT?
What is the revenue of Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)?
What is the net profit margin of MSFT?
Does Microsoft Corporation pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Microsoft Corporation and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.