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Oracle Corporation (ORCL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Oracle Corporation is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Technology · US · ISIN US68389X1054

OC Oracle Corporation logo Some data Sep 17, 2026

Oracle Corporation

ORCL · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value $117.84 · Overvalued (−20%)
!Quality 44/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +10.7 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 25.4% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
·1.35% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
✓Wide moat 88/100
!Insider activity 46/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 6 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 27 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$324.63 $57.97 Fair Value $117.84 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $57.97 – $324.63 · fair‑value band $82.49 – $173.04 · the $147.61 price screens above the $117.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.

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Company profile

Oracle Corporation offers products and services that address enterprise information technology environments worldwide.

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Oracle Corporation offers products and services that address enterprise information technology environments worldwide. Its Oracle cloud software as a service offering include various cloud software applications, including Oracle Fusion cloud enterprise resource planning ERP, Oracle Fusion cloud enterprise performance management EPM, Oracle Fusion cloud supply chain and manufacturing management SCM, Oracle Fusion cloud human capital management HCM, and NetSuite applications suite, Oracle Health applications, as well as Oracle Fusion Sales, Service, and Marketing. The company also offers cloud-based industry solutions for various industries; Oracle cloud license and on-premise license; and Oracle license support services. In addition, it provides cloud and license business' infrastructure technologies, such as the Oracle Database and MySQL Database; Java, a software development language; and middleware, including development tools and others. The company's cloud and license business' infrastructure technologies also comprise cloud-based compute, storage, and networking capabilities; and Oracle autonomous database, as well as AI, Internet-of-Things, machine learning, digital assistant, and blockchain. Further, it provides hardware products and other hardware-related software offerings, including Oracle engineered systems, enterprise servers, storage solutions, industry-specific hardware, virtualization software, operating systems, management software, and related hardware support services, and consulting and advanced customer services. It markets and sells its cloud, license, hardware, support, and services offerings directly to businesses in various industries, government agencies, and educational institutions, as well as through indirect channels. Oracle Corporation has a strategic alliance with Metron, Inc. The company was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

Stock analysis

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) currently trades at $147.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $117.84, implying the stock looks roughly 25.3% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $117.84 per share, and 3 of the 14 models we run sit above the $147.61 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $54.46, and 11 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $82.49 (bear) to $173.04 (bull), the price of $147.61 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Oracle Corporation reported revenue of $67.4B in FY2026 versus $42.4B in FY2022, a compound +12.2%/yr. Reported net income was $17.1B in FY2026, compounding +26.3%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap $430B · P/E ratio 26.0 · P/S ratio 6.60 · EPS (TTM) $5.67 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 25.4% · Return on equity 53.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −20%, ORCL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $82.49 Fair Value $117.84 Bull $173.04
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.14 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV $31.96 $43.17 $53.14 74
ROIC Compounder $37.71 $62.29 $95.99 69
EV/EBITDA $109.33 $156.31 $203.29 67
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $40.34 $155.79 $211.21 64
Lynch FV $38.12 $54.46 $70.79 61
PEG = 1.0 $38.12 $54.46 $70.79 57
EPV $31.96 $43.17 $53.14 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $124.57 $166.10 $207.62 63
P/S Multiple $75.63 $100.84 $126.06 58
P/B Multiple $66.41 $88.54 $110.68 55
EV/EBIT $98.23 $141.51 $184.79 65
EV/EBITDA $109.33 $156.31 $203.29 67
EV/Revenue $34.03 $62.16 $90.30 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $7.38 $9.89 $14.76 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $48.20 $71.90 $920.22 64
ROIC Compounder $37.71 $62.29 $95.99 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $82.49 $117.84 $153.20 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 12

Profitability 58
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 48
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 23
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 7
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 19
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 5
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 64
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 54/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+13.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14% vs 10%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.38% → 31%

ORCL screens 25% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.

Compare Oracle Corporation with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 377 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 44 · Below median
Fair Value upside −26% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 53% · Top 25%
Return on assets 7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 25% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 36% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 21% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 2.88× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 26.0× · Pricier than median
P/B 8.67× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 5.47× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 15.1× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.74× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)6 · sector 14
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 48
PAST (return on equity)100 · sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)27 · sector 32

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Microsoft Corporation MSFT $493.48 $542.83 +10%
Palantir Technologies Inc PLTR $172.56 $42.96 −75%
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CrowdStrike Holdings CRWD $242.49 $34.64 −86%
Fortinet, Inc FTNT $172.37 $164.92 −4%
Synopsys, Inc SNPS $378.47 $177.06 −53%
Block, Inc XYZ A$109.44 A$141.48 +29%
CoreWeave, Inc CRWV $83.35 $71.79 −14%
Twilio Inc TWLO $238.88 $59.44 −75%
NetApp, Inc NTAP $191.49 $154.83 −19%

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Oracle Corporation · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Oracle Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ORCL

Frequently asked questions

Is Oracle Corporation (ORCL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $117.84 versus a price of $147.61, about −20% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ORCL?
Our model-based fair value for Oracle Corporation is $117.84 (as of Sep 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $147.61.
What is the quality score of ORCL?
Oracle Corporation has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Oracle Corporation (ORCL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $117.84 (as of Sep 17, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $82.49, optimistic scenario $173.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Oracle Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $117.84, about −20% upside versus a price of $147.61 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $82.49, optimistic scenario $173.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Oracle Corporation (ORCL)?
Oracle Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $64.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 17, 2026).
Does Oracle Corporation pay a dividend?
Oracle Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.35% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 17, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Oracle Corporation (ORCL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Oracle Corporation it is $117.84 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026), against a price of $147.61. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Oracle Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 17, 2026, ORCL trades above its calculated fair value: price $147.61, fair value $117.84, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORCL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($147.61); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($117.84). For Oracle Corporation the two are $29.77 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Oracle Corporation worth?
The market values Oracle Corporation at about $430B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 17, 2026). Per share that is $147.61; our models calculate a fair value of $117.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORCL?
Our models span a range for Oracle Corporation: cautious scenario $82.49, base $117.84, optimistic $173.04 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026, price $147.61). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ORCL?
Oracle Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.0 (as of Sep 17, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $117.84 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 8.7, P/S 5.5, EV/EBITDA 15.1.
What is the PEG ratio of ORCL?
The PEG ratio of Oracle Corporation is 0.74 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 17, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Oracle Corporation (ORCL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Oracle Corporation (as of Sep 17, 2026): return on equity 53.4%, debt of 2.88 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORCL from its 52-week high?
Oracle Corporation trades at $147.61, about 57% below its 52-week high of $343.01 and 10% above the low of $134.57 (as of Sep 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $117.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Oracle Corporation?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, CrowdStrike Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Oracle Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 17, 2026: price $147.61, calculated fair value $117.84 (−20%), Quality Score 44/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORCL calculated?
We run Oracle Corporation through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $117.84, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Oracle Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Oracle Corporation (ORCL)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $147.61. Our model-based fair value is $117.84, about −20% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Oracle Corporation right now?
Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($82.49 to $173.04) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Oracle Corporation (ORCL) come from?
Earnings per share at Oracle Corporation grew +8.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.1 %, EBIT margin −1.6 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Oracle Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of Oracle Corporation (ORCL)?
The market capitalisation of Oracle Corporation is $430B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Oracle Corporation (ORCL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Oracle Corporation is 6.60 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Oracle Corporation (ORCL)?
Earnings per share at Oracle Corporation are $5.67 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Oracle Corporation (ORCL)?
The dividend yield of Oracle Corporation is 1.4% (payout 35.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Oracle Corporation (ORCL)?
The net margin of Oracle Corporation is 25.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Oracle Corporation (ORCL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Oracle Corporation is 53.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Oracle Corporation (ORCL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Oracle Corporation is 9.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Oracle Corporation (ORCL)?
The operating margin of Oracle Corporation is 36.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Oracle Corporation (ORCL)?
Revenue at Oracle Corporation is growing +20.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Oracle Corporation (ORCL)?
Earnings per share at Oracle Corporation are growing +21.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Oracle Corporation (ORCL) generate?
The free cash flow of Oracle Corporation is −$23.7B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Oracle Corporation (ORCL) carry?
The net debt of Oracle Corporation is $125B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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