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Mobvoi Inc (2438) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mobvoi Inc stock HK$0.15, price HK$0.25, that is 38.8% below the price, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Technology HK · Based in China

MI Mobvoi Inc logo Thin data Nov 9, 2026

Mobvoi Inc

2438 · HK
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 39% below what the stock costs today.

Quality 46/100
Revenue last quarter 56% below a year ago.
Fair value HK$0.1500 · Strongly overvalued
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −13.6 %/yr in CNY)
Loss-making · -51.9% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/9)
Narrow moat 10/100 · thin data
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$4.24 HK$0.2450 Fair Value HK$0.1500 Apr 2024 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

30‑month range HK$0.2450 – HK$4.24 · fair‑value band HK$0.1000 – HK$0.1900 · the HK$0.2450 price screens above the HK$0.1500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.

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Company profile

Mobvoi Inc., an investment holding company, provides AI software solutions in Mainland China, Germany, and internationally. It operates through AI Software Solutions and AI Hardware segments.

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The company offers smartwatches under the TicWatch name; Moyin Workshop, an AI voiceover assistant; Weta365, an AI avatar; AI Ask365, an enterprise AI interactive digital employee generation platform; AI hardware-software integrated products under the TicNote name; TicNote Cloud, an AI-native collaboration platform; and CodeBanana, an enterprise-level cloud-based coding agent platform.

It also provides AIGC Content Generation Platform; Yuanchuang Island, an AI Short Video Generator; DupDub and LivGen; and wearable devices.

In addition, the company offers enterprise solutions, such as smart in-vehicle solutions, on-premise solutions, customized speech solutions, smart wearable solutions, embedded voice interaction solutions, and speech interaction solutions.

Further, it is involved in the manufacturing and sale of smart devices and other accessories to enterprise and individual customers; and software development and procurement of raw materials. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Nanjing, China.

Stock analysis

Mobvoi Inc (2438) currently trades at HK$0.2450, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1500, 39% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: HK$0.1000 (bear) to HK$0.1900 (bull), the price of HK$0.2450 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Mobvoi Inc reported revenue of 323M CNY in FY2025 versus 398M CNY in FY2021, a compound −5.1%/yr. Reported net income was −68.9M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$387M (≈ $49.3M) Micro · P/S ratio 1.84 · Net margin −21.3% · Return on equity −47.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −12.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin −62.5% · Revenue (TTM) 223M CNY · Revenue growth (YoY) −56.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 65% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −39%, 2438 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.1000 Fair Value HK$0.1500 Bull HK$0.1900
Price HK$0.2450 · Downside -38.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.1000 HK$0.1500 HK$0.1900 52
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.1000 HK$0.1500 HK$0.1900 52

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 29
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 66
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 11
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 72
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 79
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 18
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 4
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 0
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 37
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 15/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−17.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−51.2% (2020) → −21.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

2438 screens overvalued: fair value 39% below the price. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 346 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside −38.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −18.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −51.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −62.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −56.0% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.41× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 1.48× · Cheaper than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Microsoft Corporation MSFT $530.61 $583.67 +10% vs 2438
Fortinet, Inc FTNT $118.84 $130.72 +10% vs 2438
Oracle Corporation ORCL $116.10 $111.97 −4% vs 2438
NetApp, Inc NTAP $169.19 $156.80 −7% vs 2438
Block, Inc XYZ $85.48 $76.43 −11% vs 2438
Synopsys, Inc SNPS $450.46 $288.23 −36% vs 2438
Zscaler, Inc ZS $197.66 $101.45 −49% vs 2438
Palantir Technologies Inc PLTR $160.38 $42.20 −74% vs 2438
CrowdStrike Holdings CRWD $216.90 $37.97 −82% vs 2438
Palo Alto Networks, Inc PANW $313.84 $39.54 −87% vs 2438

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Mobvoi Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mobvoi Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2438

Frequently asked questions

Is Mobvoi Inc (2438) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1500 versus a price of HK$0.2450, about 39% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2438?
Our model-based fair value for Mobvoi Inc is HK$0.1500 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.2450.
What is the quality score of 2438?
Mobvoi Inc has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mobvoi Inc (2438)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.1500 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.1000, optimistic scenario HK$0.1900. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mobvoi Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.1500, about 39% lower versus a price of HK$0.2450 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.1000, optimistic scenario HK$0.1900. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mobvoi Inc (2438)?
Mobvoi Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 223M CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Mobvoi Inc (2438)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mobvoi Inc it is HK$0.1500 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of HK$0.2450. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Mobvoi Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, 2438 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.2450, fair value HK$0.1500, a gap of about −39% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2438?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.2450); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.1500). For Mobvoi Inc the two are HK$0.0950 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mobvoi Inc worth?
The market values Mobvoi Inc at about HK$387M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.2450; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.1500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2438?
Our models span a range for Mobvoi Inc: cautious scenario HK$0.1000, base HK$0.1500, optimistic HK$0.1900 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price HK$0.2450). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mobvoi Inc (2438)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mobvoi Inc (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity −47.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2438 from its 52-week high?
Mobvoi Inc trades at HK$0.2450, about 65% below its 52-week high of HK$0.7000 and at the low of HK$0.2450 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.1500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mobvoi Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mobvoi Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price HK$0.2450, calculated fair value HK$0.1500 (−39%), Quality Score 46/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2438 calculated?
We run Mobvoi Inc through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$0.1500 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Mobvoi Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mobvoi Inc (2438)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was HK$0.2450. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.1500, about 39% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mobvoi Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.1900). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (46/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.1000 to HK$0.1900) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Mobvoi Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Mobvoi Inc (2438)?
The market capitalisation of Mobvoi Inc is HK$387M (≈ $49.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mobvoi Inc (2438)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mobvoi Inc is 1.84 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Mobvoi Inc (2438)?
The net margin of Mobvoi Inc is −21.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mobvoi Inc (2438)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mobvoi Inc is −47.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mobvoi Inc (2438)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mobvoi Inc is −12.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mobvoi Inc (2438)?
The operating margin of Mobvoi Inc is −62.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mobvoi Inc (2438)?
Revenue at Mobvoi Inc is growing −56.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Mobvoi Inc (2438) generate?
The free cash flow of Mobvoi Inc is −98.3M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Mobvoi Inc (2438) hold?
Mobvoi Inc holds more cash than debt, 94.8M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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