Mobvoi Inc (2438) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · HK · Market cap HK$472M
Fair value as of: Aug 5, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price −4.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 73% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.1190). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (2 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
28‑month range HK$0.2650 – HK$4.24 · fair‑value band HK$0.0680 – HK$0.1190 · the HK$0.3500 price screens above the HK$0.0935 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 5, 2026.
Analysis
Mobvoi Inc (2438) currently trades at HK$0.3500, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0935, implying the stock looks roughly 73.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Mobvoi Inc generated revenue of HK$323M at a net margin of -21.3%. Revenue declined 36.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -25.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$94.8M. Fundamentals as of Aug 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.0680 (bear case) to HK$0.1190 (bull case); at HK$0.3500, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 66% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside, at -73%, 2438 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 9
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Mobvoi Inc., an investment holding company, provides AI software solutions in Mainland China, Germany, and internationally. It operates through AI Software Solutions and AI Hardware segments.
Full company description
Mobvoi Inc., an investment holding company, provides AI software solutions in Mainland China, Germany, and internationally. It operates through AI Software Solutions and AI Hardware segments. The company offers smartwatches under the TicWatch name; Moyin Workshop, an AI voiceover assistant; Weta365, an AI avatar; AI Ask365, an enterprise AI interactive digital employee generation platform; AI hardware-software integrated products under the TicNote name; TicNote Cloud, an AI-native collaboration platform; and CodeBanana, an enterprise-level cloud-based coding agent platform. It also provides AIGC Content Generation Platform; Yuanchuang Island, an AI Short Video Generator; DupDub and LivGen; and wearable devices. In addition, the company offers enterprise solutions, such as smart in-vehicle solutions, on-premise solutions, customized speech solutions, smart wearable solutions, embedded voice interaction solutions, and speech interaction solutions. Further, it is involved in the manufacturing and sale of smart devices and other accessories to enterprise and individual customers; and software development and procurement of raw materials. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Nanjing, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Mobvoi Inc reported revenue of HK$323M in FY2025 versus HK$398M in FY2021, a compound −5.1%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$68.9M in FY2025.
2438 screens 73% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →
Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 370 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $384.00 | $274.17 | -29% |
| Oracle Corporation ORAC | C$9.08 | C$2.94 | -68% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $160.78 | $44.96 | -72% |
| Synopsys, Inc 1SNPS | €354.50 | €93.61 | -74% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$114.53 | A$70.69 | -38% |
| CoreWeave, Inc CRWV | $79.94 | $44.89 | -44% |
| Range Intelligent Computing Technology Group 300442 | ¥71.60 | ¥34.00 | -53% |
| Oracle Financial Services Software Limited OFSS | ₹11,651 | ₹5,821 | -50% |
| 360 Security Technology Inc 601360 | ¥9.64 | ¥5.05 | -48% |
| One97 Communications Limited PAYTM | ₹1,342 | ₹181.50 | -86% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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