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Mobvoi Inc (2438) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Mobvoi Inc HK$0.13, price HK$0.30, upside -57.5%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Technology · HK

MI Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Mobvoi Inc

2438 · HK

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value HK$0.1275 · Strongly overvalued (−58%)
!Quality 38/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +4.1 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -21.3% net margin (TTM)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/9)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

HK$4.24 HK$0.2650 Fair Value HK$0.1275 Apr 2024 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

29‑month range HK$0.2650 – HK$4.24 · fair‑value band HK$0.0850 – HK$0.1615 · the HK$0.3000 price screens above the HK$0.1275 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Mobvoi Inc., an investment holding company, provides AI software solutions in Mainland China, Germany, and internationally. It operates through AI Software Solutions and AI Hardware segments.

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Mobvoi Inc., an investment holding company, provides AI software solutions in Mainland China, Germany, and internationally. It operates through AI Software Solutions and AI Hardware segments. The company offers smartwatches under the TicWatch name; Moyin Workshop, an AI voiceover assistant; Weta365, an AI avatar; AI Ask365, an enterprise AI interactive digital employee generation platform; AI hardware-software integrated products under the TicNote name; TicNote Cloud, an AI-native collaboration platform; and CodeBanana, an enterprise-level cloud-based coding agent platform. It also provides AIGC Content Generation Platform; Yuanchuang Island, an AI Short Video Generator; DupDub and LivGen; and wearable devices. In addition, the company offers enterprise solutions, such as smart in-vehicle solutions, on-premise solutions, customized speech solutions, smart wearable solutions, embedded voice interaction solutions, and speech interaction solutions. Further, it is involved in the manufacturing and sale of smart devices and other accessories to enterprise and individual customers; and software development and procurement of raw materials. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Nanjing, China.

Stock analysis

Mobvoi Inc (2438) currently trades at HK$0.3000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1275, implying the stock looks roughly 135.3% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: HK$0.0850 (bear) to HK$0.1615 (bull), the price of HK$0.3000 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Mobvoi Inc reported revenue of 323M CNY in FY2025 versus 398M CNY in FY2021, a compound −5.1%/yr. Reported net income was −68.9M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$461M (≈ $58.8M) · P/S ratio 1.46 · Net margin −21.3% · Return on equity −25.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −12.6% · Operating margin −53.7% · Revenue (TTM) 323M CNY · Revenue growth (YoY) −36.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 66% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −58%, 2438 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.0850 Fair Value HK$0.1275 Bull HK$0.1615
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.0800 HK$0.1000 HK$0.1500 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.0800 HK$0.1000 HK$0.1500 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 11

Profitability 29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 66
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 11
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 72
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 79
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 15
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 15
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 15/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−17.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−51.2% (2020) → −21.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

2438 screens 135% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 377 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 41 · Below median
Fair Value upside −58% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −11% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −21% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −54% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −37% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.25× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.18× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Microsoft Corporation MSFT $498.00 $547.80 +10%
Oracle Corporation ORCL $149.20 $117.84 −21%
Palantir Technologies Inc PLTR $184.99 $43.02 −77%
Palo Alto Networks, Inc PANW $374.57 $114.50 −69%
CrowdStrike Holdings CRWD $250.06 $35.15 −86%
Fortinet, Inc FTNT $174.26 $164.92 −5%
Synopsys, Inc SNPS $409.24 $250.04 −39%
Block, Inc XYZ $77.53 $101.29 +31%
CoreWeave, Inc CRWV $86.76 $71.79 −17%
NetApp, Inc NTAP $192.91 $157.18 −19%

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Mobvoi Inc · Fair Value
HK$0.1275 −135%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mobvoi Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2438

Frequently asked questions

Is Mobvoi Inc (2438) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1275 versus a price of HK$0.3000, about −58% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2438?
Our model-based fair value for Mobvoi Inc is HK$0.1275 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.3000.
What is the quality score of 2438?
Mobvoi Inc has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mobvoi Inc (2438)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.1275 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.0850, optimistic scenario HK$0.1615. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mobvoi Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.1275, about −58% upside versus a price of HK$0.3000 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.0850, optimistic scenario HK$0.1615. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mobvoi Inc (2438)?
Mobvoi Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 323M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Mobvoi Inc (2438)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mobvoi Inc it is HK$0.1275 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$0.3000. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mobvoi Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 2438 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.3000, fair value HK$0.1275, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2438?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.3000); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.1275). For Mobvoi Inc the two are HK$0.1725 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mobvoi Inc worth?
The market values Mobvoi Inc at about HK$461M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.3000; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.1275 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2438?
Our models span a range for Mobvoi Inc: cautious scenario HK$0.0850, base HK$0.1275, optimistic HK$0.1615 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$0.3000). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mobvoi Inc (2438)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mobvoi Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −25.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2438 from its 52-week high?
Mobvoi Inc trades at HK$0.3000, about 66% below its 52-week high of HK$0.8900 and 2% above the low of HK$0.2950 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.1275 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mobvoi Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mobvoi Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$0.3000, calculated fair value HK$0.1275 (−58%), Quality Score 38/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2438 calculated?
We run Mobvoi Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.1275, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Mobvoi Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mobvoi Inc (2438)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was HK$0.3000. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.1275, about −58% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mobvoi Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.1615). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.0850 to HK$0.1615) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Mobvoi Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Mobvoi Inc (2438)?
The market capitalisation of Mobvoi Inc is HK$461M (≈ $58.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mobvoi Inc (2438)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mobvoi Inc is 1.46 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Mobvoi Inc (2438)?
The net margin of Mobvoi Inc is −21.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mobvoi Inc (2438)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mobvoi Inc is −25.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mobvoi Inc (2438)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mobvoi Inc is −12.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mobvoi Inc (2438)?
The operating margin of Mobvoi Inc is −53.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mobvoi Inc (2438)?
Revenue at Mobvoi Inc is growing −36.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Mobvoi Inc (2438) generate?
The free cash flow of Mobvoi Inc is −98.3M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Mobvoi Inc (2438) hold?
Mobvoi Inc holds more cash than debt, 94.8M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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