China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd (3318) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd stock HK$2.08, price HK$2.89, upside -27.9%, quality 30 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.8100 – HK$5.24 · fair‑value band HK$1.56 – HK$3.10 · the HK$2.89 price screens above the HK$2.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 30, 2026.
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China Boton Group Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells flavors, fragrances, and e-cigarette products in the People's Republic of China, Europe, the United States, the rest of Asia, and internationally.
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The company operates in five segments: Tobacco Flavors, Food Flavors, Fine Fragrances, e-Cigarette Products, and Investment Properties segments.
It offers tobacco fragrance products; edible flavor products for beverages, dairy, candy, baking, and savory products; and fragrances to manufacturers of cosmetics, hair care, soap, detergent, deodorant, air freshener, and other products.
In addition, the company offers e-cigarette products, which include disposable and rechargeable electronic cigarettes or cigars, as well as other e-cigarette accessories, such as rechargeable e-cigarette cases, to tobacco companies, independent e-cigarette manufacturers, and other customers.
Further, it is involved in leasing of properties. The company was founded in 1991 and is based in Kowloon, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd (3318) currently trades at HK$2.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.08, 27.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 89/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: HK$1.56 (bear) to HK$3.10 (bull), the price of HK$2.89 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd reported revenue of 1.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound −10.1%/yr. Reported net income was −1.0B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$3.1B (≈ $397M) Small · P/S ratio 1.92 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin −69.0% · Return on equity −34.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.1% · Operating margin 4.8% · Revenue (TTM) 1.7B CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 16 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 160% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −28%, 3318 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$1.56Fair Value HK$2.08BullHK$3.10
Price HK$2.89 · Upside -27.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.9% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
17.1% (2020) → −64.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 733 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−28.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−15.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−63.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)4.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)25.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.60× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.26× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)1.60× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA22.3× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.80× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 67
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)70· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)7· sector 31
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3318
Frequently asked questions
Is China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd (3318) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.08 versus a price of HK$2.89, about −28% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 3318?
Our model-based fair value for China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd is HK$2.08 (as of Oct 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.89.
What is the quality score of 3318?
China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd (3318)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$2.08 (as of Oct 30, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.56, optimistic scenario HK$3.10. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$2.08, about −28% upside versus a price of HK$2.89 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.56, optimistic scenario HK$3.10. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd (3318)?
China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 30, 2026).
Does China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd pay a dividend?
China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.33% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 30, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd (3318)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd it is HK$2.08 per share (as of Oct 30, 2026), against a price of HK$2.89. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 30, 2026, 3318 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$2.89, fair value HK$2.08, a gap of about −28% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3318?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$2.89); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$2.08). For China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd the two are HK$0.8050 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd worth?
The market values China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd at about HK$3.1B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 30, 2026). Per share that is HK$2.89; our models calculate a fair value of HK$2.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3318?
Our models span a range for China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$1.56, base HK$2.08, optimistic HK$3.10 per share (as of Oct 30, 2026, price HK$2.89). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 3318?
The PEG ratio of China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd is 0.80 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 30, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd (3318)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd (as of Oct 30, 2026): return on equity −34.6%, debt of 0.60 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3318 from its 52-week high?
China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd trades at HK$2.89, about 14% below its 52-week high of HK$3.36 and 160% above the low of HK$1.11 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$2.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, Ecolab Inc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Nan Ya Plastics Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 30, 2026: price HK$2.89, calculated fair value HK$2.08 (−28%), Quality Score 30/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3318 calculated?
We run China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$2.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd (3318)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was HK$2.89. Our model-based fair value is HK$2.08, about −28% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd right now?
Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (HK$1.56 to HK$3.10) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd (3318) come from?
Earnings per share at China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd grew −4.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.4 %, EBIT margin −6.7 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd (3318)?
The market capitalisation of China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd is HK$3.1B (≈ $397M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd (3318)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd is 1.92 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd (3318)?
The dividend yield of China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd is 0.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd (3318)?
The net margin of China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd is −69.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd (3318)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd is −34.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd (3318)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd is 0.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd (3318)?
The operating margin of China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd (3318)?
Revenue at China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd is growing +25.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd (3318)?
Earnings per share at China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd are growing −32.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd (3318) generate?
The free cash flow of China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd is −273M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd (3318) carry?
The net debt of China Flavors and Fragrances Co Ltd is 644M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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