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Intercontinental Exchange, Inc (I1CE34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc BRL 46.35, price BRL 65.30, upside -29.0%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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IE
Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc
I1CE34 · SAWeak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.
!Fair value R$46.35 · Overvalued (−29.0%)
!Quality 50/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +20.0 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 37.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!0.6% dividend yield · Token dividend
✓Wide moat 69/100
!The models disagree: range R$42.17 to R$102.44
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$28.61 – R$476.24 · fair‑value band R$42.17 – R$102.44 · the R$65.30 price screens above the R$46.35 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides technology and data to financial institutions, corporations, and government entities in the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Canada, Asia Pacific, and the Middle East.
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Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides technology and data to financial institutions, corporations, and government entities in the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Canada, Asia Pacific, and the Middle East. It operates through three segments: Exchanges, Fixed Income and Data Services, and Mortgage Technology. The Exchanges segment operates regulated marketplace technology for the listing, trading, and clearing of an array of derivatives contracts and financial securities, such as commodities, interest rates, foreign exchange and equities, and corporate and exchange-traded funds, as well as data and connectivity services related to its exchanges and clearing houses. The Fixed Income and Data Services segment provides fixed income pricing, reference data, indices, analytics, and execution services, as well as global CDS clearing and multi-asset class data delivery technology. The Mortgage Technology segment offers a technology platform that provides customers comprehensive and digital workflow tools to address inefficiencies and mitigate risks that exist in the U.S. residential mortgage market life cycle from application through closing, servicing, and the secondary market. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Stock analysis
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc (I1CE34) currently trades at R$65.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$46.35, 29.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R$105.82 per share, and 11 of the 23 models we run sit above the R$65.30 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at R$4.91, and 12 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$42.17 (bear) to R$102.44 (bull), the price of R$65.30 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc reported revenue of $12.6B in FY2025 versus $11.7B in FY2021, a compound +2.0%/yr. Reported net income was $3.3B in FY2025, compounding +87.5%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap R$178B (≈ $34.1B) · P/E ratio 41.6 · P/S ratio 10.9 · EPS (TTM) R$8.38 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 26.2% · Return on equity 13.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 86% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −29%, I1CE34 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$42.17
Fair Value R$46.35
Bull R$102.44
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$4.85 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
n/a
n/a
R$1.69
77
Residual Income
R$46.28
R$53.77
R$73.33
76
EPV
R$23.80
R$33.03
R$41.10
73
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
n/a
n/a
R$1.69
77
Owner Earnings
R$67.59
R$155.57
R$314.13
71
5Y Revenue Exit
n/a
R$5.78
>R$23.12
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
R$26.15
R$87.84
R$168.52
70
5Y P/E Exit
R$18.82
R$72.31
R$135.97
65
10Y Revenue Exit
n/a
n/a
R$27.32
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
R$10.20
R$61.01
R$144.74
60
10Y P/E Exit
R$5.28
R$49.46
R$116.78
56
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
R$39.48
R$199.81
R$275.94
64
Lynch FV
R$54.25
R$77.50
R$100.76
61
PEG = 1.0
R$54.25
R$77.50
R$100.76
57
EPV
R$23.80
R$33.03
R$41.10
73
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
R$17.77
R$36.94
R$58.61
66
DDM Multi-Stage
R$17.77
R$31.15
R$38.77
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
R$74.02
R$98.69
R$123.37
63
P/S Multiple
R$24.90
R$33.20
R$41.51
58
P/B Multiple
R$74.02
R$98.69
R$123.37
55
EV/EBIT
R$59.43
R$89.76
R$120.09
65
EV/EBITDA
R$53.92
R$82.42
R$110.91
66
EV/Revenue
n/a
R$1.65
>R$6.60
50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
R$25.32
R$33.93
R$50.64
54
Growth DCF
Rev-Margin DCF
n/a
R$4.91
>R$19.64
69
Economic Profit
Residual Income
R$46.28
R$53.77
R$73.33
76
ROIC Compounder
R$23.80
R$33.03
R$41.10
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
R$74.07
R$105.82
R$137.57
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
50/100
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Profitability
39
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
66
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
41
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
78
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
33
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
45
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
13
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
39
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.0%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 39%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.0%/yr over ~5Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+66.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +61.6% a year for the price and −2.6% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−13.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.9%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.6%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.2%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.8%
I1CE34 screens overvalued: fair value 29% below the price. Compare with Linde plc →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (75 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- Intercontinental Exchange Sees Multiple Growth Opportunities, RBC Says
- ICE’s New Private Credit Data Platform Might Change The Case For Investing In Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)
- Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Launches Private Credit Data Service, Is The Stock Still Cheap?
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Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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|---|---|---|---|
| Linde plc LIN | $474.65 | $441.72 | −7% |
| The Sherwin-Williams Company SHW | $330.44 | $151.68 | −54% |
| Ecolab Inc ECL | $274.58 | $96.56 | −65% |
| Air Products and Chemicals, Inc APD | $279.19 | $121.30 | −57% |
| Nan Ya Plastics Corporation 1303 | 238.00 TWD | 234.23 TWD | −2% |
| Givaudan SA GIVN | CHF 3,360 | CHF 1,527 | −55% |
| Sika AG SIKA | CHF 183.80 | CHF 98.89 | −46% |
| Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 | ¥69.45 | ¥68.03 | −2% |
| DSM-Firmenich AG DSFIR | CHF 92.30 | CHF 29.70 | −68% |
| Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT | ₹2,444 | ₹1,479 | −39% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Intercontinental Exchange, Inc (I1CE34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$46.35 versus a price of R$65.30, about −29% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of I1CE34?
Our model-based fair value for Intercontinental Exchange, Inc is R$46.35 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$65.30.
What is the quality score of I1CE34?
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Intercontinental Exchange, Inc (I1CE34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$46.35 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$42.17, optimistic scenario R$102.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Intercontinental Exchange, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$46.35, about −29% upside versus a price of R$65.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$42.17, optimistic scenario R$102.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc (I1CE34)?
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$10.4B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Intercontinental Exchange, Inc pay a dividend?
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.56% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Intercontinental Exchange, Inc (I1CE34)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +66.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +20.0 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of I1CE34 use?
Our models discount Intercontinental Exchange, Inc at 12.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.95, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Intercontinental Exchange, Inc that is +66.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Intercontinental Exchange, Inc (I1CE34) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Intercontinental Exchange, Inc grew +20.0 % a year. The price currently implies +66.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc (I1CE34) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Intercontinental Exchange, Inc (+66.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc (I1CE34)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.69 %: that much free cash flow Intercontinental Exchange, Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc (I1CE34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Intercontinental Exchange, Inc it is R$46.35 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of R$65.30. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Intercontinental Exchange, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, I1CE34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$65.30, fair value R$46.35, a gap of about −29% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of I1CE34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$65.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$46.35). For Intercontinental Exchange, Inc the two are R$18.95 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Intercontinental Exchange, Inc worth?
The market values Intercontinental Exchange, Inc at about R$178B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is R$65.30; our models calculate a fair value of R$46.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about I1CE34?
Our models span a range for Intercontinental Exchange, Inc: cautious scenario R$42.17, base R$46.35, optimistic R$102.44 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price R$65.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is I1CE34 from its 52-week high?
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc trades at R$65.30, about 86% below its 52-week high of R$458.97 and 23% above the low of R$53.01 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$46.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Intercontinental Exchange, Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Intercontinental Exchange, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price R$65.30, calculated fair value R$46.35 (−29%), Quality Score 50/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of I1CE34 calculated?
We run Intercontinental Exchange, Inc through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$46.35, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Intercontinental Exchange, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc (I1CE34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$65.30. Our model-based fair value is R$46.35, about −29% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Intercontinental Exchange, Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (R$42.17 to R$102.44) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc (I1CE34)?
The market capitalisation of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc is R$178B (≈ $34.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc (I1CE34)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc is 41.6 (as of Jul 16, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc (I1CE34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc is 10.9 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc (I1CE34)?
Earnings per share at Intercontinental Exchange, Inc are R$8.38 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 41.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc (I1CE34)?
The dividend yield of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc is 0.6% (payout 4.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc (I1CE34)?
The net margin of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc is 26.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc (I1CE34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc is 13.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc (I1CE34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc is 6.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc (I1CE34)?
The operating margin of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc is 57.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Intercontinental Exchange, Inc (I1CE34)?
Revenue at Intercontinental Exchange, Inc is growing +20.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Intercontinental Exchange, Inc (I1CE34)?
Earnings per share at Intercontinental Exchange, Inc are growing +79.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Intercontinental Exchange, Inc (I1CE34) carry?
The net debt of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc is R$5.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 21.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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