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lululemon athletica inc. (33L) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of lululemon athletica inc. €238, price €83.30, upside +185.8%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026
lululemon athletica inc.
33L · XETRAClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value €238.10 · Strongly undervalued (+185.8%)
✓Quality 67/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 3y +11.0 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 13.0% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 71/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €83.30 – €465.95 · fair‑value band €148.74 – €309.53 · the €83.30 price screens below the €238.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Company profile
lululemon athletica inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, distributes, and retails technical athletic apparel, footwear, and accessories for women and men under the lululemon brand in the United States, Canada, Mexico, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau, Greece, and internationally.
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lululemon athletica inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, distributes, and retails technical athletic apparel, footwear, and accessories for women and men under the lululemon brand in the United States, Canada, Mexico, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau, Greece, and internationally. It offers pants, shorts, tops, and jackets for athletic activities, such as yoga, running, training, and other activities. The company also provides fitness-inspired accessories. It sells its products through company-operated stores; seasonal stores, pop-ups, university campus retailers, and yoga and fitness studios; outlets; Like New, a re-commerce program; and its e-commerce website. The company was founded in 1998 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
lululemon athletica inc., (33L) currently trades at €83.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €238.10, implying the stock looks roughly 65.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €261.33 per share, and 23 of the 24 models we run sit above the €83.30 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €27.23, and 1 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €148.74 (bear) to €309.53 (bull), the price of €83.30 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
lululemon athletica inc., reported revenue of $11.1B in FY2026 versus $6.3B in FY2022, a compound +15.4%/yr. Reported net income was $1.6B in FY2026, compounding +12.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap €11.6B · P/E ratio 9.4 · P/S ratio 1.34 · EPS (TTM) €10.84 · Net margin 14.2% · Return on equity 32.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 29.8% · Operating margin 11.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 186%, 33L screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €148.74
Fair Value €238.10
Bull €309.53
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (€7.28 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
€110.21
€183.46
€308.34
73
Growth DCF
€109.89
€178.14
€292.05
71
Owner Earnings
€159.16
€270.00
€458.95
68
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
€110.21
€183.46
€308.34
73
Owner Earnings
€159.16
€270.00
€458.95
68
5Y Revenue Exit
€96.48
€154.17
€231.41
66
5Y EBITDA Exit
€169.36
€302.17
€468.57
68
5Y P/E Exit
€177.95
€319.63
€480.93
64
10Y Revenue Exit
€97.77
€153.80
€237.37
61
10Y EBITDA Exit
€148.36
€261.33
€433.03
61
10Y P/E Exit
€154.03
€274.01
€443.23
57
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
€87.97
€386.80
€529.41
61
Lynch FV
€99.97
€142.82
€185.66
58
PEG = 1.0
€99.97
€142.82
€185.66
55
EPV
€151.05
€173.76
€193.63
68
Multiples
P/E Multiple
€213.45
€284.60
€355.75
63
P/S Multiple
€81.86
€109.14
€136.43
58
P/B Multiple
€121.94
€162.59
€203.23
55
EV/EBIT
€259.27
€340.76
€422.25
63
EV/EBITDA
€214.37
€280.89
€347.41
64
EV/Revenue
€91.20
€123.94
€156.69
51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
€20.32
€27.23
€40.65
51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
€109.89
€178.14
€292.05
71
Rev-Margin DCF
€96.48
€153.14
€225.15
66
Economic Profit
Residual Income
€77.12
€107.16
€219.02
63
ROIC Compounder
€161.84
€199.64
€242.44
67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
€169.26
€241.80
€314.34
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
67/100
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20
Profitability
92
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
17
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
43
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
92
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
41
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
54
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
10
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
93/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2022 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 20%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.7% a year for the price and −0.3% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2027 (sales)−0.5%
Forecast 2028 (sales)+2.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.7%
Projected 2031 (sales)+2.6%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: German Stocks
- Valuation of the Germany market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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10 more Apparel Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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|---|---|---|---|
| Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A ITX | €53.06 | €58.37 | +10% |
| Fast Retailing Co 6288 | HK$33.92 | HK$30.82 | −9% |
| The TJX Companies, Inc TJX | $132.31 | $84.95 | −36% |
| Ross Stores, Inc ROST | $237.09 | $118.41 | −50% |
| Burlington Stores, Inc BURL | $254.69 | $150.49 | −41% |
| Trent Limited TRENT | ₹2,669 | ₹709.49 | −73% |
| Aritzia Inc ATZ | C$117.81 | C$129.59 | +10% |
| The Gap, Inc GAP | $21.82 | $37.58 | +72% |
| Urban Outfitters, Inc URBN | $78.77 | $93.57 | +19% |
| Abercrombie & Fitch Co ANF | $134.18 | $207.34 | +55% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is lululemon athletica inc. (33L) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €238.10 versus a price of €83.30, about +186% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 33L?
Our model-based fair value for lululemon athletica inc., is €238.10 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €83.30.
What is the quality score of 33L?
lululemon athletica inc., has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for lululemon athletica inc. (33L)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €238.10 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €148.74, optimistic scenario €309.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the lululemon athletica inc., stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €238.10, about +186% upside versus a price of €83.30 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €148.74, optimistic scenario €309.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of lululemon athletica inc. (33L)?
lululemon athletica inc., reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $11.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into lululemon athletica inc. (33L)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, lululemon athletica inc., would have to grow free cash flow by -5.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +15.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 33L use?
Our models discount lululemon athletica inc., at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.88, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For lululemon athletica inc., that is -5.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has lululemon athletica inc. (33L) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at lululemon athletica inc., grew +15.4 % a year. The price currently implies -5.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of lululemon athletica inc. (33L) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into lululemon athletica inc., (-5.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of lululemon athletica inc. (33L)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.44 %: that much free cash flow lululemon athletica inc., produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of lululemon athletica inc. (33L)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For lululemon athletica inc., it is €238.10 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €83.30. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is lululemon athletica inc., stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 33L trades below its calculated fair value: price €83.30, fair value €238.10, a gap of about +186% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 33L?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€83.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€238.10). For lululemon athletica inc., the two are €154.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is lululemon athletica inc., worth?
The market values lululemon athletica inc., at about €11.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €83.30; our models calculate a fair value of €238.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 33L?
Our models span a range for lululemon athletica inc.,: cautious scenario €148.74, base €238.10, optimistic €309.53 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €83.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 33L from its 52-week high?
lululemon athletica inc., trades at €83.30, about 55% below its 52-week high of €184.40 and at the low of €83.30 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €238.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to lululemon athletica inc.,?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A, Fast Retailing Co, The TJX Companies, Inc, Ross Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is lululemon athletica inc., stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €83.30, calculated fair value €238.10 (+186%), Quality Score 67/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 33L calculated?
We run lululemon athletica inc., through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €238.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. lululemon athletica inc., currently trades 65 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of lululemon athletica inc. (33L)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €83.30. Our model-based fair value is €238.10, about +186% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with lululemon athletica inc., right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€148.74). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (€148.74 to €309.53) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of lululemon athletica inc.,
How large is the market capitalisation of lululemon athletica inc. (33L)?
The market capitalisation of lululemon athletica inc., is €11.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of lululemon athletica inc. (33L)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of lululemon athletica inc., is 9.4 (as of Jul 20, 2026, median at FY-end 37.4 (5 FY)). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of lululemon athletica inc. (33L)?
The price-to-sales ratio of lululemon athletica inc., is 1.34 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of lululemon athletica inc. (33L)?
Earnings per share at lululemon athletica inc., are €10.84 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of lululemon athletica inc. (33L)?
The net margin of lululemon athletica inc., is 14.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of lululemon athletica inc. (33L)?
The return on equity (ROE) of lululemon athletica inc., is 32.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of lululemon athletica inc. (33L)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of lululemon athletica inc., is 29.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of lululemon athletica inc. (33L)?
The operating margin of lululemon athletica inc., is 11.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at lululemon athletica inc. (33L)?
Revenue at lululemon athletica inc., is growing +4.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at lululemon athletica inc. (33L)?
Earnings per share at lululemon athletica inc., are growing −35.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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