Ross Stores, Inc (ROST) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $74.9B
Ross Stores, Inc
ROST · US
Fair value as of: Jul 20, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 18 days ago
Share price +18.5% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 53% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 79/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($148.49). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $67.28 – $254.31 · fair‑value band $88.32 – $148.49 · the $254.31 price screens above the $118.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
Analysis
Ross Stores, Inc (ROST) currently trades at $254.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $118.41, implying the stock looks roughly 53.4% overvalued today. We read business quality at 79/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Ross Stores, Inc generated revenue of $23.8B at a net margin of 9.7%. Revenue grew 20.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 39.0%. Net debt stands at $618M. Fundamentals as of Jul 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $88.32 (bear case) to $148.49 (bull case); at $254.31, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 106% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -53%, ROST screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($149.10) versus Asset-Based ($12.92). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 75 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 84
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Ross Stores, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates off-price retail apparel and home fashion stores under the Ross Dress for Less and dd's DISCOUNTS brands in the United States. The company offers designer apparel, accessories, footwear, and home-fashioned products for the entire family.
Full company description
Ross Stores, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates off-price retail apparel and home fashion stores under the Ross Dress for Less and dd's DISCOUNTS brands in the United States. The company offers designer apparel, accessories, footwear, and home-fashioned products for the entire family. It sells its products to middle income households and households with lower to more moderate incomes. Ross Stores, Inc. was incorporated in 1957 and is headquartered in Dublin, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Ross Stores, Inc reported revenue of $22.8B in FY2026 versus $18.9B in FY2022, a compound +4.7%/yr. Reported net income was $2.1B in FY2026, compounding +5.6%/yr from FY2022.
ROST screens 53% overvalued. Compare with Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Ross Stores (ROST) Stock May Be Expensive On Its 130% 3 Year Run
- Is Ross Stores (ROST) Fully Valued After Its Earnings Beat And Raised Guidance?
- Verisign Achieves #28 Analyst Rank, Surpassing Ross Stores
- Are Retail-Wholesale Stocks Lagging Ross Stores (ROST) This Year?
Peer Group
Apparel Retail · 107 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Apparel Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Apparel Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A 1ITX | €58.44 | €23.29 | -60% |
| The TJX Companies, Inc TJX | $154.46 | $84.95 | -45% |
| Fast Retailing Co 6288 | HK$40.00 | HK$15.37 | -62% |
| Burlington Stores, Inc BURL | $327.72 | $147.08 | -55% |
| Trent Limited TRENT | ₹2,903 | ₹709.49 | -76% |
| lululemon athletica inc., LULU | $116.33 | $299.63 | +158% |
| Aritzia Inc ATZ | C$160.05 | C$87.26 | -45% |
| The Gap, Inc GAP | $20.35 | $37.12 | +82% |
| Urban Outfitters, Inc URBN | $72.95 | $92.88 | +27% |
| Boot Barn Holdings BOOT | $164.32 | $128.55 | -22% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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