Burlington Stores, Inc (BURL) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $20.6B
Burlington Stores, Inc
BURL · US
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 13, 2026, revised from $146.53 to $147.08 (+0.4%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +17.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 60% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($225.12). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($70.90 to $225.12). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $109.78 – $372.19 · fair‑value band $70.90 – $225.12 · the $371.15 price screens above the $147.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Burlington Stores, Inc (BURL) currently trades at $371.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $147.08, implying the stock looks roughly 60.4% overvalued today. We read business quality at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Burlington Stores, Inc generated revenue of $11.9B at a net margin of 5.2%. Revenue grew 14.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 39.1%. Net debt stands at $4.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $70.90 (bear case) to $225.12 (bull case); at $371.15, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -60%, BURL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($164.80) versus Dividend Discount ($5.27). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Burlington Stores, Inc. operates as a retailer of branded merchandise in the United States and Puerto Rico. The company offers fashion-focused merchandise, including women's ready-to-wear apparel, menswear, youth apparel, footwear, accessories, home furnishings, toys, gifts, and coats, as well as baby and beauty merchandise products.
Full company description
Burlington Stores, Inc. operates as a retailer of branded merchandise in the United States and Puerto Rico. The company offers fashion-focused merchandise, including women's ready-to-wear apparel, menswear, youth apparel, footwear, accessories, home furnishings, toys, gifts, and coats, as well as baby and beauty merchandise products. It operates stores under the Burlington Stores, and Cohoes Fashions brands in Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico. The company was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Burlington, New Jersey.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Burlington Stores, Inc reported revenue of $11.6B in FY2026 versus $9.3B in FY2022, a compound +5.5%/yr. Reported net income was $610M in FY2026, compounding +10.5%/yr from FY2022.
BURL screens 60% overvalued. Compare with Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Citi downgrades Burlington to Neutral with stock near all-time highs
- Burlington's Smaller Store Format Improves Sales Productivity
Peer Group
Apparel Retail · 106 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Apparel Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Apparel Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A 1ITX | €55.74 | €24.93 | -55% |
| The TJX Companies, Inc TJX | $154.46 | $84.95 | -45% |
| Fast Retailing Co 6288 | HK$40.00 | HK$15.37 | -62% |
| Ross Stores, Inc ROST | $233.46 | $118.41 | -49% |
| Trent Limited TRENT | ₹2,903 | ₹709.49 | -76% |
| lululemon athletica inc., LULU | $116.33 | $299.63 | +158% |
| Aritzia Inc ATZ | C$160.05 | C$87.26 | -45% |
| The Gap, Inc GAP | $20.35 | $37.12 | +82% |
| Urban Outfitters, Inc URBN | $72.95 | $92.88 | +27% |
| Boot Barn Holdings BOOT | $164.32 | $128.55 | -22% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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