The TJX Companies, Inc (TJX) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $171B
The TJX Companies, Inc
TJX · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Share price +5.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 48% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 72/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($107.83). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $51.97 – $168.41 · fair‑value band $62.07 – $107.83 · the $162.06 price screens above the $84.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
The TJX Companies, Inc (TJX) currently trades at $162.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $84.95, implying the stock looks roughly 47.6% overvalued today. We read business quality at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, The TJX Companies, Inc generated revenue of $61.6B at a net margin of 9.4%. Revenue grew 9.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 61.3%. Net debt stands at $7.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $62.07 (bear case) to $107.83 (bull case); at $162.06, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -48%, TJX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($96.80) versus Asset-Based ($6.18). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
The TJX Companies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an off-price apparel and home fashions retailer worldwide. It operates through four segments: Marmaxx, HomeGoods, TJX Canada, and TJX International.
Full company description
The TJX Companies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an off-price apparel and home fashions retailer worldwide. It operates through four segments: Marmaxx, HomeGoods, TJX Canada, and TJX International. The company provides family apparel comprising footwear; accessories, such as beauty and jewelry; home fashion products, including home basics, decorative accessories and giftware, as well as furniture, rugs, lighting, soft home, decorative accessories, tabletop, and cookware; pet and gourmet food; and other merchandise. It also offers home decor, furniture, and seasonal home merchandise. The company sells its products through stores and e-commerce sites. The TJX Companies, Inc. was incorporated in 1962 and is headquartered in Framingham, Massachusetts.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
The TJX Companies, Inc reported revenue of $60.4B in FY2026 versus $48.6B in FY2022, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was $5.5B in FY2026, compounding +13.7%/yr from FY2022.
TJX screens 48% overvalued. Compare with Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A →
Peer Group
Apparel Retail · 106 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Apparel Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Apparel Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A 1ITX | €55.74 | €24.93 | -55% |
| Fast Retailing Co 6288 | HK$40.00 | HK$15.37 | -62% |
| Ross Stores, Inc ROST | $233.46 | $118.41 | -49% |
| Burlington Stores, Inc BURL | $327.72 | $147.08 | -55% |
| Trent Limited TRENT | ₹2,903 | ₹709.49 | -76% |
| lululemon athletica inc., LULU | $116.33 | $299.63 | +158% |
| Aritzia Inc ATZ | C$160.05 | C$87.26 | -45% |
| The Gap, Inc GAP | $20.35 | $37.12 | +82% |
| Urban Outfitters, Inc URBN | $72.95 | $92.88 | +27% |
| Boot Barn Holdings BOOT | $164.32 | $128.55 | -22% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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