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Rajkumar Forge Limited (513369) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Rajkumar Forge Limited ₹66.69, price ₹136, upside -50.8%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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RF
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Rajkumar Forge Limited
513369 · BSEStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value ₹66.69 · Strongly overvalued (−50.8%)
!Quality 59/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +17.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 8.4% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Moderate moat 53/100
!The models disagree: range ₹49.35 to ₹197.08
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹36.03 – ₹171.35 · fair‑value band ₹49.35 – ₹197.08 · the ₹135.50 price screens above the ₹66.69 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Rajkumar Forge Limited manufactures and sells open die forging products in India, Singapore, Malaysia, the Middle East, Europe, the United States, Latin America, etc. Its products include shafts, square and rectangular section, blanks, ring, and hollow products.
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Rajkumar Forge Limited manufactures and sells open die forging products in India, Singapore, Malaysia, the Middle East, Europe, the United States, Latin America, etc. Its products include shafts, square and rectangular section, blanks, ring, and hollow products. The company serves oil and gas, gear box manufacturing, steel plant, cement, sugar mill, power transmission, infrastructure, wind mill, construction and mining, and other sectors. It also exports its products. Rajkumar Forge Limited was founded in 1990 and is based in Pune, India. Rajkumar Forge Limited is a subsidiary of Western India Forgings Private Limited.
Stock analysis
Rajkumar Forge Limited (513369) currently trades at ₹135.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹66.69, 50.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹263.25 per share, and 10 of the 17 models we run sit above the ₹135.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹31.50, and 7 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹49.35 (bear) to ₹197.08 (bull), the price of ₹135.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrial Goods sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Rajkumar Forge Limited reported revenue of ₹893M in FY2026 versus ₹672M in FY2022, a compound +7.4%/yr. Reported net income was ₹114M in FY2026, compounding +31.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹264M (≈ $2.7M) · P/E ratio 7.2 · P/S ratio 0.91 · EPS (TTM) ₹3.42 · Net margin 12.7% · Return on equity 13.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.8% · Operating margin 12.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrial Goods peers we cover trades at −57% fair-value upside, at −51%, 513369 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹49.35
Fair Value ₹66.69
Bull ₹197.08
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹1.74 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV
₹78.86
₹91.32
₹102.06
74
Owner Earnings
₹111.47
₹232.70
₹466.17
72
Residual Income
₹64.90
₹91.16
₹175.96
72
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings
₹111.47
₹232.70
₹466.17
72
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
₹70.72
₹449.27
₹627.88
63
Lynch FV
₹129.88
₹185.54
₹241.20
61
PEG = 1.0
₹129.88
₹185.54
₹241.20
57
EPV
₹78.86
₹91.32
₹102.06
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
₹21.96
₹43.75
₹66.25
67
DDM Multi-Stage
₹21.96
₹37.81
₹46.18
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
₹163.80
₹218.40
₹273.00
63
P/S Multiple
₹122.45
₹163.27
₹204.09
58
P/B Multiple
₹132.60
₹176.80
₹221.00
55
EV/EBIT
₹122.90
₹163.86
₹204.82
66
EV/EBITDA
₹107.99
₹143.99
₹179.98
67
EV/Revenue
₹87.71
₹125.31
₹162.90
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
₹23.51
₹31.50
₹47.02
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
₹64.90
₹91.16
₹175.96
72
ROIC Compounder
₹94.67
₹135.40
₹186.27
71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
₹184.28
₹263.25
₹342.23
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
59/100
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Profitability
81
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
7
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
75
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
47
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
55
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
39
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +21.9% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+26.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+26.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 12%
2026 sits 185% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
513369 screens overvalued: fair value 51% below the price. Compare with ATI Inc →
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 252 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Indian Stocks
- Valuation of the India market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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10 more Metal Fabrication stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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|---|---|---|---|
| ATI Inc ATI | $185.48 | $46.88 | −75% |
| Carpenter Technology Corporation CRS | $396.84 | $140.67 | −65% |
| Mueller Industries, Inc MLI | $60.97 | $59.41 | −3% |
| Bharat Forge Limited BHARATFORG | ₹2,008 | ₹398.69 | −80% |
| Aurubis AG NDA | €167.90 | €109.89 | −35% |
| Commercial Metals Company CMC | $65.73 | $13.01 | −80% |
| China International Marine Containers (Group) Co 000039 | ¥8.66 | ¥11.28 | +30% |
| SINOMACH HEAVY EQUIPMENT GROUP CO.,LTD researches, 601399 | ¥3.15 | ¥1.35 | −57% |
| JL Mag Rare-Earth Co 300748 | ¥25.29 | ¥5.04 | −80% |
| Western Superconducting Technologies Co 688122 | ¥51.33 | ¥24.43 | −52% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Rajkumar Forge Limited (513369) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹66.69 versus a price of ₹135.50, about −51% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 513369?
Our model-based fair value for Rajkumar Forge Limited is ₹66.69 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹135.50.
What is the quality score of 513369?
Rajkumar Forge Limited has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Rajkumar Forge Limited (513369)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹66.69 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹49.35, optimistic scenario ₹197.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Rajkumar Forge Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹66.69, about −51% upside versus a price of ₹135.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹49.35, optimistic scenario ₹197.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Rajkumar Forge Limited (513369)?
Rajkumar Forge Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹444M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Rajkumar Forge Limited (513369)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Rajkumar Forge Limited it is ₹66.69 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ₹135.50. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Rajkumar Forge Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 513369 trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹135.50, fair value ₹66.69, a gap of about −51% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 513369?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹135.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹66.69). For Rajkumar Forge Limited the two are ₹68.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Rajkumar Forge Limited worth?
The market values Rajkumar Forge Limited at about ₹264M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ₹135.50; our models calculate a fair value of ₹66.69 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 513369?
Our models span a range for Rajkumar Forge Limited: cautious scenario ₹49.35, base ₹66.69, optimistic ₹197.08 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ₹135.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 513369?
Rajkumar Forge Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹66.69 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.5, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 3.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Rajkumar Forge Limited (513369)?
Balance-sheet figures for Rajkumar Forge Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 13.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 513369 from its 52-week high?
Rajkumar Forge Limited trades at ₹135.50, about 21% below its 52-week high of ₹171.35 and 24% above the low of ₹109.50 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹66.69 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Rajkumar Forge Limited?
From the same area (Industrial Goods) we also value ATI Inc, Carpenter Technology Corporation, Mueller Industries, Inc, Bharat Forge Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Rajkumar Forge Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ₹135.50, calculated fair value ₹66.69 (−51%), Quality Score 59/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 513369 calculated?
We run Rajkumar Forge Limited through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹66.69, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Rajkumar Forge Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Rajkumar Forge Limited (513369)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹135.50. Our model-based fair value is ₹66.69, about −51% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Rajkumar Forge Limited right now?
The model range is unusually wide (₹49.35 to ₹197.08). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Rajkumar Forge Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Rajkumar Forge Limited (513369)?
The market capitalisation of Rajkumar Forge Limited is ₹264M (≈ $2.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Rajkumar Forge Limited (513369)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Rajkumar Forge Limited is 0.91 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Rajkumar Forge Limited (513369)?
Earnings per share at Rajkumar Forge Limited are ₹3.42 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Rajkumar Forge Limited (513369)?
The net margin of Rajkumar Forge Limited is 12.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Rajkumar Forge Limited (513369)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Rajkumar Forge Limited is 13.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Rajkumar Forge Limited (513369)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Rajkumar Forge Limited is 10.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Rajkumar Forge Limited (513369)?
The operating margin of Rajkumar Forge Limited is 12.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Rajkumar Forge Limited (513369)?
Revenue at Rajkumar Forge Limited is growing −19.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Rajkumar Forge Limited (513369)?
Earnings per share at Rajkumar Forge Limited are growing −11.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Rajkumar Forge Limited (513369) generate?
The free cash flow of Rajkumar Forge Limited is −₹25.4M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Rajkumar Forge Limited (513369) carry?
The net debt of Rajkumar Forge Limited is ₹53.2M (fiscal year 2022). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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