Mueller Industries, Inc (MLI) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $13.0B
Mueller Industries, Inc
MLI · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from $120.61 to $60.24 (−50.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +24.8% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 13% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range ($41.42 to $76.81) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from $41.42 (bear) to $76.81 (bull), base $60.24. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 82/100 (high quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.03 – $70.23 · fair‑value band $41.42 – $76.81 · the $69.46 price screens above the $60.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Mueller Industries, Inc (MLI) currently trades at $69.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $60.24, implying the stock looks roughly 13.3% overvalued today. We read business quality at 82/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Mueller Industries, Inc generated revenue of $4.4B at a net margin of 19.4%. Revenue grew 19.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 28.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $1.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $41.42 (bear case) to $76.81 (bull case); at $69.46, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -72% fair-value upside, at -13%, MLI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($61.29) versus Dividend Discount ($7.41). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 83 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Mueller Industries, Inc. manufactures and sells copper, brass, and aluminum products in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Asia and the Middle East, and Mexico. It operates through three segments: Piping Systems, Industrial Metals, and Climate.
Full company description
Mueller Industries, Inc. manufactures and sells copper, brass, and aluminum products in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Asia and the Middle East, and Mexico. It operates through three segments: Piping Systems, Industrial Metals, and Climate. The Piping Systems segment offers copper tubes, fittings, line sets, and pipe nipples; resells steel pipe, brass and plastic plumbing valves, malleable iron fittings, faucets, and plumbing specialties. This segment sells its products to wholesalers in the plumbing and refrigeration markets, distributors to the manufactured housing and recreational vehicle industries, building material retailers, and air-conditioning original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). The Industrial Metals segment offers brass, bronze, and copper alloy rods; brass rod, bar, and shapes; cold-form aluminum and copper products; high-volume machining of aluminum, steel, brass, and cast-iron impacts and castings for automotive applications; brass and aluminum forgings; brass, aluminum, and stainless steel valves; fluid control solutions; and gas train assembles; specialty copper, copper alloy, and aluminum tube to OEMs in the industrial, construction, plumbing, refrigeration, utility, telecommunication, and electrical transmission and distribution markets, as well as heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) markets. The Climate segment provides valves, protection devices, and brass fittings; and coaxial heat exchangers and twisted tubes to wholesalers and OEMs in the HVAC and refrigeration markets. This segment also manufactures and distributes high-pressure components and accessories, as well as insulated HVAC flexible duct systems. Mueller Industries, Inc. was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Collierville, Tennessee.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Mueller Industries, Inc reported revenue of $4.2B in FY2025 versus $3.8B in FY2021, a compound +2.6%/yr. Reported net income was $765M in FY2025, compounding +13.0%/yr from FY2021.
MLI screens 13% overvalued. Compare with Carpenter Technology Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Mueller Industries Grew Sales 25% With Piping Up 27%. Here's the Backdrop to an Insider Filing
- Mueller's Sales Jumped 25% as Copper Climbed. Here's How to Read the CFO's Latest Insider Filing
- Should You Read Anything Into Mueller's CEO Parting With Shares After a 53% Run?
- Mueller Industries beats second-quarter estimates as demand drives revenue growth (MLI)
Peer Group
Metal Fabrication · 244 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Metal Fabrication stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carpenter Technology Corporation CRS | $577.10 | $103.31 | -82% |
| ATI Inc ATI | $186.17 | $36.51 | -80% |
| China International Marine Containers (Group) Co 000039 | ¥7.45 | ¥1.15 | -85% |
| JL Mag Rare-Earth Co 300748 | ¥31.69 | ¥8.74 | -72% |
| Anhui Yingliu Electromechanical Co 603308 | ¥55.43 | ¥8.07 | -85% |
| Western Superconducting Technologies Co 688122 | ¥56.73 | ¥24.43 | -57% |
| Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co 300953 | ¥131.65 | ¥44.23 | -66% |
| Baoding Technology Co 002552 | ¥43.95 | ¥5.44 | -88% |
| SINOMACH HEAVY EQUIPMENT GROUP CO.,LTD researches, 601399 | ¥3.13 | ¥1.35 | -57% |
| Xiamen Voke Mold & Plastic Engineering Co 301196 | ¥110.08 | ¥42.71 | -61% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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