Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Allegheny Technologies Incorporated is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $35.74 · Strongly overvalued (−81%)
!Quality 62/100
✓Healthy Growth(revenue YoY +5.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers(6/15)
!Moderate moat61/100
!Insider activity40/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $14.06 – $231.78 · fair‑value band $20.55 – $53.04 · the $189.16 price screens above the $35.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
ATI Inc. produces and sells specialty materials and complex components worldwide. It operates in two segments, High Performance Materials & Components, and Advanced Alloys & Solutions.
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ATI Inc. produces and sells specialty materials and complex components worldwide. It operates in two segments, High Performance Materials & Components, and Advanced Alloys & Solutions. The company produces high performance materials, including titanium and titanium-based alloys, nickel- and cobalt-based alloys and superalloys, advanced powder alloys and other specialty materials, and metallic powder alloys, as well as long product forms, such as ingot, billet, bar, rod, wire, shapes and rectangles, seamless tubes, plus precision forgings, components, and machined parts. It also offers zirconium and related alloys, including hafnium and niobium, nickel-based alloys, titanium and titanium-based alloys, and specialty alloys in various forms, such as plate, sheet, and precision rolled strip products. In addition, the company provides hot-rolling conversion services comprising carbon steel products. It serves medical and specialty energy, aerospace and defense, construction and mining, transportation, oil and gas, automotive, food equipment and appliances, and mining markets. The company was formerly known as Allegheny Technologies Incorporated. ATI Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Stock analysis
Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI) currently trades at $189.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $35.74, implying the stock looks roughly 429.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $49.29 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the $189.16 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $8.86, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $20.55 (bear) to $53.04 (bull), the price of $189.16 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Allegheny Technologies Incorporated reported revenue of $4.6B in FY2025 versus $2.8B in FY2021, a compound +13.1%/yr. Reported net income was $404M in FY2025, compounding +21.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $26.8B · P/E ratio 62.4 · P/S ratio 5.50 · EPS (TTM) $3.03 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 8.8% · Return on equity 22.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades near its 52-week high and 169% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −81%, ATI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($1.28 to $55.57). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $20.55Fair Value $35.74Bull $53.04
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.19 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.69/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−44% → 14%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.6%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+35.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Allegheny Technologies Incorporated with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 263 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−83% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)23% · Top 25%
Return on assets8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.95× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)62.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B14.08× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)5.53× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF76.1× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA31.5× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.20× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)3· sector 34
PAST (return on equity)91· sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)52· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)1· sector 25
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $35.74 versus a price of $189.16, about −81% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ATI?
Our model-based fair value for Allegheny Technologies Incorporated is $35.74 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $189.16.
What is the quality score of ATI?
Allegheny Technologies Incorporated has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $35.74 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $20.55, optimistic scenario $53.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Allegheny Technologies Incorporated stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $35.74, about −81% upside versus a price of $189.16 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $20.55, optimistic scenario $53.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI)?
Allegheny Technologies Incorporated reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Allegheny Technologies Incorporated pay a dividend?
Allegheny Technologies Incorporated currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.05% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Allegheny Technologies Incorporated would have to grow free cash flow by +35.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.0 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ATI use?
Our models discount Allegheny Technologies Incorporated at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.96, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Allegheny Technologies Incorporated that is +35.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Allegheny Technologies Incorporated grew +9.0 % a year. The price currently implies +35.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (+35.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.23 %: that much free cash flow Allegheny Technologies Incorporated produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Allegheny Technologies Incorporated it is $35.74 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of $189.16. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Allegheny Technologies Incorporated stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, ATI trades above its calculated fair value: price $189.16, fair value $35.74, a gap of about −81% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ATI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($189.16); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($35.74). For Allegheny Technologies Incorporated the two are $153.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Allegheny Technologies Incorporated worth?
The market values Allegheny Technologies Incorporated at about $26.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is $189.16; our models calculate a fair value of $35.74 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ATI?
Our models span a range for Allegheny Technologies Incorporated: cautious scenario $20.55, base $35.74, optimistic $53.04 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price $189.16). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ATI?
Allegheny Technologies Incorporated trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 62.4 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $35.74 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 14.1, P/S 5.5, EV/EBITDA 31.5.
What is the PEG ratio of ATI?
The PEG ratio of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated is 1.20 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 22.7%, debt of 0.95 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ATI from its 52-week high?
Allegheny Technologies Incorporated trades at $189.16, about 3% below its 52-week high of $183.30 and 169% above the low of $70.42 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $35.74 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Allegheny Technologies Incorporated?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Carpenter Technology Corporation, Mueller Industries, Inc, Aurubis AG, China International Marine Containers (Group) Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Allegheny Technologies Incorporated stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price $189.16, calculated fair value $35.74 (−81%), Quality Score 62/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ATI calculated?
We run Allegheny Technologies Incorporated through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $35.74, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Allegheny Technologies Incorporated itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was $189.16. Our model-based fair value is $35.74, about −81% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Allegheny Technologies Incorporated right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($53.04). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($20.55 to $53.04) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated
How large is the market capitalisation of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI)?
The market capitalisation of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated is $26.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated is 5.50 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI)?
Earnings per share at Allegheny Technologies Incorporated are $3.03 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 62.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI)?
The dividend yield of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated is 0.1% (payout 3.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI)?
The net margin of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated is 8.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated is 22.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated is 8.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI)?
The operating margin of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated is 16.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI)?
Revenue at Allegheny Technologies Incorporated is growing +0.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI)?
Earnings per share at Allegheny Technologies Incorporated are growing +26.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI) carry?
The net debt of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated is $1.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 18, 2026