China Ouhua Winery Holdings (5188) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of China Ouhua Winery Holdings stock MYR 0.03, price MYR 0.05, upside -40.0%, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.0300 MYR – 0.1300 MYR · the 0.0500 MYR price screens above the 0.0300 MYR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 30, 2026.
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China Ouhua Winery Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in importing, bottling, sale, and distribution of grape win in the People's Republic of China. It produces and trades in red and white wine.
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China Ouhua Winery Holdings Limited was founded in 1997 and is based in Yantai, China.
Stock analysis
China Ouhua Winery Holdings (5188) currently trades at 0.0500 MYR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.0300 MYR, 40.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
China Ouhua Winery Holdings reported revenue of 11.5M CNY in FY2025 versus 15.7M CNY in FY2021, a compound −7.6%/yr. Reported net income was −5.6M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 33.4M MYR (≈ $8.2M) Micro · P/S ratio 1.90 · EPS (TTM) −0.0100 MYR · Net margin −38.2% · Return on equity −6.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −14.3% · Operating margin −41.7% · Revenue (TTM) 17.6M CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 5 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 67% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 44% fair-value upside, at −40%, 5188 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear0.0300 MYRFair Value 0.0300 MYRBull0.0300 MYR
Price 0.0500 MYR · Upside -40.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−19.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.2% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−18.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−81.6% (2020) → −51.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 93 stocks
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Is China Ouhua Winery Holdings (5188) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 0.0300 MYR versus a price of 0.0500 MYR, about −40% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 5188?
Our model-based fair value for China Ouhua Winery Holdings is 0.0300 MYR (as of Oct 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 0.0500 MYR.
What is the quality score of 5188?
China Ouhua Winery Holdings has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Ouhua Winery Holdings (5188)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 0.0300 MYR (as of Oct 30, 2026) from 1 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Ouhua Winery Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 0.0300 MYR, about −40% upside versus a price of 0.0500 MYR (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Ouhua Winery Holdings (5188)?
China Ouhua Winery Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 17.6M CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 30, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Ouhua Winery Holdings (5188)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Ouhua Winery Holdings it is 0.0300 MYR per share (as of Oct 30, 2026), against a price of 0.0500 MYR. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Ouhua Winery Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 30, 2026, 5188 trades above its calculated fair value: price 0.0500 MYR, fair value 0.0300 MYR, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 5188?
No. The price is what the market pays today (0.0500 MYR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (0.0300 MYR). For China Ouhua Winery Holdings the two are 0.0200 MYR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Ouhua Winery Holdings worth?
The market values China Ouhua Winery Holdings at about 33.4M MYR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 30, 2026). Per share that is 0.0500 MYR; our models calculate a fair value of 0.0300 MYR per share.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Ouhua Winery Holdings (5188)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Ouhua Winery Holdings (as of Oct 30, 2026): return on equity −6.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 5188 from its 52-week high?
China Ouhua Winery Holdings trades at 0.0500 MYR, about 9% below its 52-week high of 0.0550 MYR and 67% above the low of 0.0300 MYR (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 0.0300 MYR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Ouhua Winery Holdings?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Ouhua Winery Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 30, 2026: price 0.0500 MYR, calculated fair value 0.0300 MYR (−40%), Quality Score 48/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 5188 calculated?
We run China Ouhua Winery Holdings through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 0.0300 MYR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. China Ouhua Winery Holdings itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Ouhua Winery Holdings (5188)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was 0.0500 MYR. Our model-based fair value is 0.0300 MYR, about −40% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Ouhua Winery Holdings right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (0.0300 MYR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of China Ouhua Winery Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of China Ouhua Winery Holdings (5188)?
The market capitalisation of China Ouhua Winery Holdings is 33.4M MYR (≈ $8.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Ouhua Winery Holdings (5188)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Ouhua Winery Holdings is 1.90 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Ouhua Winery Holdings (5188)?
Earnings per share at China Ouhua Winery Holdings are −0.0100 MYR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of China Ouhua Winery Holdings (5188)?
The net margin of China Ouhua Winery Holdings is −38.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Ouhua Winery Holdings (5188)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Ouhua Winery Holdings is −6.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Ouhua Winery Holdings (5188)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Ouhua Winery Holdings is −14.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Ouhua Winery Holdings (5188)?
The operating margin of China Ouhua Winery Holdings is −41.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Ouhua Winery Holdings (5188)?
Revenue at China Ouhua Winery Holdings is growing +89.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does China Ouhua Winery Holdings (5188) generate?
The free cash flow of China Ouhua Winery Holdings is −3.9M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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Thin data
Oct 30, 2026