Diageo PLC ADR (DEO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Diageo PLC ADR is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $54.0B · ISIN US25243Q2057
At a glance
DPDiageo PLC ADRDEO · US
Price$87.14
Fair Value$73.29
Upside−15.9%
Quality51/100
A solid business, but trading 19% above our fair value of $73.29.
As of Sep 7, 2026, the fair value of Diageo PLC ADR is $73.29 per share against a price of $87.14, so the fair value sits 16% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +11.5 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 12.2% net margin
!High debt · generates free cash flow
·3.81% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
✓Wide moat 75/100
!Weak on balance sheet: 6 out of 100
Evidence: HighRange $41.44 to $95.28
Fair value as of: Sep 7, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price −9.6% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
A fairly wide model range ($41.44 to $95.28) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $71.75 – $196.06 · fair‑value band $41.44 – $95.28 · the $87.14 price screens above the $73.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.
Diageo PLC ADR (DEO) currently trades at $87.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $73.29, implying the stock looks roughly 18.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $73.29 per share, and 4 of the 25 models we run sit above the $87.14 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $13.37, and 21 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Diageo PLC ADR generated revenue of $19.8B at a net margin of 12.2%. Revenue declined 4.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.7%. Net debt stands at $22.2B. Fundamentals as of Sep 7, 2026
Scenario range: $41.44 (bear) to $95.28 (bull), the price of $87.14 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 23% fair-value upside, at −16%, DEO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.01 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio20.1
P/S ratio2.34P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)$4.33price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.1
Dividend yield3.8%payout 76.7%
Net margin11.6%FY2025
Return on equity19.7%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)11.9%avg 5y
Operating margin31.3%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)$19.8BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)−4.0%3y avg +6.1%
EPS growth (YoY)+2.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow$2.7BFY2025
Net debt$22.2BFY2025 · ≈ 8.3 yrs of FCF
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality51/100
Of which business quality 49
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Profitability47
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth24
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow68
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength22
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment51
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility79
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum44
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum26
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance91
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Diageo plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, marketing, and distribution of alcoholic beverages in North America, Europe, the Asia Pacific, Latin America and Caribbean, and Africa.
Full company description
Diageo plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, marketing, and distribution of alcoholic beverages in North America, Europe, the Asia Pacific, Latin America and Caribbean, and Africa. It offers beer, scotch, gin, vodka, rum, liqueur, raki, wine, Irish and Canadian whisky, US and Indian whisky, Chinese whisky, cachaça, tequila, brandy, and Chinese white spirit beverages. The company also provides ready-to-drink and non-alcoholic beverages. Its principal brands include Johnnie Walker, Don Julio, Guinness, Crown Royal, Smirnoff, Baileys, Captain Morgan, Casamigos, Shui Jing Fang, and McDowell's. The company was formerly known as Guinness plc and changed its name to Diageo plc in February 1998. The company was incorporated in 1886 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Diageo PLC ADR reported revenue of $20.2B in FY2025 versus $12.7B in FY2021, a compound +12.3%/yr. Reported net income was $2.4B in FY2025, compounding −3.0%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 88/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$20.2B
Latest YoY
−0.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (28Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.5%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+3.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−0.3%
Dividend yield3.8%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −1.4% vs 10Y 1.7%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.29.7% (2020) → 21.4% (2025) · falling
Worst earnings drop84% (2015) · in USD
Revenue+12.3%/yr
FY21$12.7B
FY22$17.0B
FY23$16.2B
FY24$20.3B
FY25$20.2B
Net income−3.0%/yr
FY21$2.7B
FY22$3.5B
FY23$3.5B
FY24$3.9B
FY25$2.4B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025)+13.7 % p.a.
Revenue per share+16.3 %
of which total revenue +6.3 % · buybacks/dilution +9.4 %
EBIT margin−0.2 %
Tax rate−1.0 %
Residual (interest, one-offs)−1.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside+11% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)20% · Top 25%
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)12% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)31% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.88× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)20.1× · Pricier than median
P/B4.87× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)2.73× · Pricier than median
P/FCF20.1× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA11.7× · Pricier than median
PEG0.80× · Cheaper than median
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Diageo PLC ADR deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years+7.2 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+11.5 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+2.9 %
FCF yield on price5.53 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models7.9 %
The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE52· sector 15
FUTURE0· sector 0
PAST79· sector 19
HEALTH6· sector 96
DIVIDEND76· sector 62
Insider activity: 25/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Alcohol
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 7, 2026).
Is Diageo PLC ADR (DEO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $73.29 versus a price of $87.14, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DEO?
Our model-based fair value for Diageo PLC ADR is $73.29 (as of Sep 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $87.14.
What is the quality score of DEO?
Diageo PLC ADR has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Diageo PLC ADR (DEO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $73.29 (as of Sep 7, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $41.44, optimistic scenario $95.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Diageo PLC ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $73.29, about −16% upside versus a price of $87.14 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $41.44, optimistic scenario $95.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Diageo PLC ADR (DEO)?
Diageo PLC ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $19.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 7, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of DEO?
The net profit margin of Diageo PLC ADR is about 12.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 12.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Diageo PLC ADR pay a dividend?
Diageo PLC ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.81% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Diageo PLC ADR (DEO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Diageo PLC ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +7.2 % per year for ten years (discount rate 7.9 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.5 % per year. As of Sep 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DEO use?
Our models discount Diageo PLC ADR at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.30. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Diageo PLC ADR (DEO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Diageo PLC ADR it is $73.29 per share (as of Sep 7, 2026), against a price of $87.14. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Diageo PLC ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 7, 2026, DEO trades above its calculated fair value: price $87.14, fair value $73.29, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DEO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($87.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($73.29). For Diageo PLC ADR the two are $13.85 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Diageo PLC ADR worth?
The market values Diageo PLC ADR at about $54.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 7, 2026). Per share that is $87.14; our models calculate a fair value of $73.29 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DEO?
Our models span a range for Diageo PLC ADR: cautious scenario $41.44, base $73.29, optimistic $95.28 per share (as of Sep 7, 2026, price $87.14). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DEO?
Diageo PLC ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.1 (as of Sep 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $73.29 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 4.9, P/S 2.7, EV/EBITDA 11.7.
What is the PEG ratio of DEO?
The PEG ratio of Diageo PLC ADR is 0.80 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 7, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Diageo PLC ADR (DEO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Diageo PLC ADR (as of Sep 7, 2026): return on equity 19.7%, debt of 1.88 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DEO from its 52-week high?
Diageo PLC ADR trades at $87.14, about 22% below its 52-week high of $112.30 and 21% above the low of $71.73 (as of Sep 7, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $73.29 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Diageo PLC ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Diageo PLC ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 7, 2026: price $87.14, calculated fair value $73.29 (−16%), Quality Score 51/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DEO calculated?
We run Diageo PLC ADR through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $73.29, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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Diageo PLC ADR
DEO · US