Luzhou Laojiao Co (000568) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 122B CNY

A solid business, screening 71% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥94.18). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
• Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
• A fairly wide model range (¥94.18 to ¥230.43) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥74.91 – ¥244.69 · fair‑value band ¥94.18 – ¥230.43 · the ¥87.01 price screens below the ¥149.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Luzhou Laojiao Co (000568) currently trades at ¥87.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥149.17, implying the stock looks roughly 71.4% undervalued today. We read business quality at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Luzhou Laojiao Co generated revenue of 24.4B CNY at a net margin of 40.8%. Revenue declined 14.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 27.3B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥94.18 (bear case) to ¥230.43 (bull case); at ¥87.01, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 71%, 000568 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥173.34) versus Asset-Based (¥22.66). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Luzhou Laojiao Co.,Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells alcoholic products in China and internationally.

Full company description

Luzhou Laojiao Co.,Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells alcoholic products in China and internationally. The company offers liquor products; and cellar-aged, red, and health wine under the Guojiao 1573, Luzhou Laojiao Special Liquor, Centennial Luzhou Laojiao Cellar-aged Liquor, Luzhou Laojiao Touqu, Luzhou Laojiao Black Cap, Gaoguang, Luzhou Laojiao 1952, Luzhou Laojiao Tequ, Touqu, and Heigai brands. It is also involved in the sales of fruit wine; cultivation and sale of agricultural products; import and export of food and alcoholic beverages; and technology and business development services. In addition, the company provides support services comprising contact district, advertising and procurement platforms, online consultation, and service platforms. Luzhou Laojiao Co.,Ltd was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Luzhou, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Luzhou Laojiao Co reported revenue of ¥25.7B in FY2025 versus ¥20.6B in FY2021, a compound +5.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥10.8B in FY2025, compounding +8.0%/yr from FY2021.

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Peer Group

Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 96 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.