Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd (600519) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd stock ¥1,653, price ¥1,452, upside +13.9%, quality 80 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥1,169 – ¥1,945 · fair‑value band ¥883.25 – ¥2,267 · the ¥1,452 price screens below the ¥1,653 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells liquor products in China and internationally. The company offers liquor and soy sauce products under the Kweichow Moutai, Moutai Wangzi liquor, Moutai 1935 liquor, Han Jiang liquor, and Lai Mao liquor brands.
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It also engages in the production and sale of beverage, food, and packaging materials; development of anti-counterfeiting technology; research and development of information industry related products; operation and management of hotel, accommodation, catering, entertainment, bathing, and parking lot services; and provision of vehicle transportation and maintenance, and value-added telecommunication services.
The company was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Renhuai, China. Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of China Kweichow Moutai Distillery(Group)Co,.Ltd.
Stock analysis
Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd (600519) currently trades at ¥1,452, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1,653, implying the stock looks roughly 12% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥1,744 per share, and 9 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥1,452 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at ¥493.82, and 17 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥883.25 (bear) to ¥2,267 (bull), the price of ¥1,452 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd reported revenue of 172B CNY in FY2025 versus 94.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound +16.3%/yr. Reported net income was 82.3B CNY in FY2025, compounding +11.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.8T CNY (≈ $273B) Mega · P/E ratio 21.6 · P/S ratio 10.6 · EPS (TTM) ¥65.66 · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 48.0% · Return on equity 31.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 35.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 94 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at 14%, 600519 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥883.25Fair Value ¥1,653Bull¥2,267
Price ¥1,452 · Upside +13.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥31.99 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.94/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +19.1% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+14.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.1% vs 18.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.79% → 66%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.9% a year for the price and +3.5% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Durable brand strength and pricing power form the core advantage, offset by limited innovation signals and governance opacity tied to state ownership influence on capital allocation.
Main risk: Stricter Chinese anti-corruption and austerity regulations could further restrict baijiu consumption at government and corporate banquets as well as in gifting, reducing demand and pressuring sales volumes.
Bull case: The company could develop its own lower-alcohol lines and strengthen direct-to-consumer channels to better match evolving tastes and maintain relevance.
Bear case: Ongoing regulatory limits combined with rival innovations might lead to structurally lower demand for premium baijiu, requiring production cuts and sustained margin pressure.
Moutai's direct sales platform has expanded quickly and now drives a substantial portion of revenue while helping maintain pricing discipline. At the same time the wider baijiu sector contends with sluggish corporate and gifting demand that has yet to fully recover. Our models see the stock as undervalued, yet will the flagship brand's channel strength prove more durable than the consumption slowdown affecting the category?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 89 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600519
Frequently asked questions
Is Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd (600519) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1,653 versus a price of ¥1,452, about +14% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 600519?
Our model-based fair value for Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd is ¥1,653 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥1,452.
What is the quality score of 600519?
Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 80/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd (600519)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥1,653 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥883.25, optimistic scenario ¥2,267. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥1,653, about +14% upside versus a price of ¥1,452 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥883.25, optimistic scenario ¥2,267. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd (600519)?
Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 171B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.93% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd (600519)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +12.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.4 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 600519 use?
Our models discount Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd at 8.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.29, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd that is +12.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd (600519) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd grew +15.4 % a year. The price currently implies +12.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd (600519) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd (+12.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd (600519)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.21 %: that much free cash flow Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd (600519)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd it is ¥1,653 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of ¥1,452. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, 600519 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥1,452, fair value ¥1,653, a gap of about +14% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600519?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥1,452); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥1,653). For Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd the two are ¥201.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd worth?
The market values Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd at about 1.8T CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is ¥1,452; our models calculate a fair value of ¥1,653 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600519?
Our models span a range for Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥883.25, base ¥1,653, optimistic ¥2,267 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price ¥1,452). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 600519?
Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.6 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥1,653 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 30.7. Other multiples: PEG 2.5, P/B 7.4, P/S 10.6, EV/EBITDA 15.7.
What is the PEG ratio of 600519?
The PEG ratio of Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd is 2.47 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd (600519)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 31.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 80/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600519 from its 52-week high?
Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd trades at ¥1,452, about 4% below its 52-week high of ¥1,519 and 24% above the low of ¥1,169 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥1,653 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, Luzhou Laojiao Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price ¥1,452, calculated fair value ¥1,653 (+14%), Quality Score 80/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600519 calculated?
We run Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥1,653, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd currently trades 12% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd (600519)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was ¥1,452. Our model-based fair value is ¥1,653, about +14% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd right now?
A fairly wide model range (¥883.25 to ¥2,267) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd (600519) come from?
Earnings per share at Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd grew +19.2 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +18.7 %, EBIT margin +0.0 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd (600519)?
The market capitalisation of Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd is 1.8T CNY (≈ $273B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd (600519)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd is 10.6 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd (600519)?
Earnings per share at Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd are ¥65.66 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd (600519)?
The dividend yield of Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd is 1.9% (payout 42.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd (600519)?
The net margin of Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd is 48.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd (600519)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd is 31.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd (600519)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd is 35.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd (600519)?
The operating margin of Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd is 66.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd (600519)?
Revenue at Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd is growing +3.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd (600519)?
Earnings per share at Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd are growing +4.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd (600519) hold?
Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 35.8B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026