Kweichow Moutai Co (600519) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 1.6T CNY

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

• The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
• A fairly wide model range (¥931.82 to ¥2,267) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥1,169 – ¥1,976 · fair‑value band ¥931.82 – ¥2,267 · the ¥1,309 price screens above the ¥1,238 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Kweichow Moutai Co (600519) currently trades at ¥1,309, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1,238, implying the stock looks roughly 5.4% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Kweichow Moutai Co generated revenue of 172B CNY at a net margin of 48.1%. Revenue grew 6.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 31.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 35.8B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥931.82 (bear case) to ¥2,267 (bull case); at ¥1,309, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 18% fair-value upside, at -5%, 600519 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥1,716) versus Asset-Based (¥131.12). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells liquor products in China and internationally. The company offers liquor and soy sauce products under the Kweichow Moutai, Moutai Wangzi liquor, Moutai 1935 liquor, Han Jiang liquor, and Lai Mao liquor brands.

Full company description

Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells liquor products in China and internationally. The company offers liquor and soy sauce products under the Kweichow Moutai, Moutai Wangzi liquor, Moutai 1935 liquor, Han Jiang liquor, and Lai Mao liquor brands. It also engages in the production and sale of beverage, food, and packaging materials; development of anti-counterfeiting technology; research and development of information industry related products; operation and management of hotel, accommodation, catering, entertainment, bathing, and parking lot services; and provision of vehicle transportation and maintenance, and value-added telecommunication services. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Renhuai, China. Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of China Kweichow Moutai Distillery(Group)Co,.Ltd.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Kweichow Moutai Co reported revenue of ¥172B in FY2025 versus ¥94.2B in FY2021, a compound +16.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥82.3B in FY2025, compounding +11.9%/yr from FY2021.

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Peer Group

Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 96 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Insider activity: 45/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.