Wuliangye Yibin Co (000858) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 286B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price +3.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 35% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥60.55). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥70.90 – ¥295.62 · fair‑value band ¥36.33 – ¥60.55 · the ¥74.48 price screens above the ¥48.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Wuliangye Yibin Co (000858) currently trades at ¥74.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥48.44, implying the stock looks roughly 35.0% overvalued today. We read business quality at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Wuliangye Yibin Co generated revenue of 46.3B CNY at a net margin of 27.2%. Revenue grew 33.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 127B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥36.33 (bear case) to ¥60.55 (bull case); at ¥74.48, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 18% fair-value upside, at -35%, 000858 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (¥199.14) versus Asset-Based (¥20.70). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Wuliangye Yibin Co.,Ltd. manufactures and sells liquor and wine products and related auxiliary products under the Wuliangye brand in China. The company's Wuliangye products include eighth-generation Wuliangye, 39 -degree Wuliangye, classic Wuliangye, 29 -degree Wuliangye, etc.
Full company description
Wuliangye Yibin Co.,Ltd. manufactures and sells liquor and wine products and related auxiliary products under the Wuliangye brand in China. The company's Wuliangye products include eighth-generation Wuliangye, 39 -degree Wuliangye, classic Wuliangye, 29 -degree Wuliangye, etc. It also offers other alcoholic beverage products, such as Wuliangchun, Wuliangchun, Wuliangtequ, Jianzhuang, etc. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Xuzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Wuliangye Yibin Co reported revenue of ¥40.5B in FY2025 versus ¥66.2B in FY2021, a compound −11.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥9.0B in FY2025, compounding −21.3%/yr from FY2021.
000858 screens 35% overvalued. Compare with Kweichow Moutai Co →
Peer Group
Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 96 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 | ¥1,251 | ¥1,238 | -1% |
| Diageo plc DEON | 1,487 MXN | 1,239 MXN | -17% |
| Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 | ¥110.50 | ¥185.80 | +68% |
| Pernod Ricard SA RI | €65.24 | €76.68 | +18% |
| Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 | ¥83.12 | ¥149.17 | +79% |
| Brown-Forman Corporation BFA | $26.60 | $28.15 | +6% |
| United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR | ₹1,376 | ₹440.56 | -68% |
| Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 | 0.4450 SGD | 0.6900 SGD | +55% |
| Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 | ¥38.08 | ¥27.82 | -27% |
| Anhui Gujing Distillery Co 000596 | ¥79.23 | ¥128.26 | +62% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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