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Wuliangye Yibin Co (000858) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 286B CNY

WY Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 · SHE
Price¥74.48
Fair Value¥48.44
Upside-35.0%
Quality60/100
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Weak Growth
Highly profitable · 27.2% net margin
generates free cash flow
7.27% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (9/14)
Wide moat 70/100
Evidence: High Range ¥36.33 – ¥60.55 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated 27 days ago

Share price +3.8% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 35% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥60.55). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥295.62 ¥70.90 Fair Value ¥48.44 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥70.90 – ¥295.62 · fair‑value band ¥36.33 – ¥60.55 · the ¥74.48 price screens above the ¥48.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

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Analysis

Wuliangye Yibin Co (000858) currently trades at ¥74.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥48.44, implying the stock looks roughly 35.0% overvalued today. We read business quality at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Wuliangye Yibin Co generated revenue of 46.3B CNY at a net margin of 27.2%. Revenue grew 33.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 127B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥36.33 (bear case) to ¥60.55 (bull case); at ¥74.48, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 18% fair-value upside, at -35%, 000858 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥25.77 ¥27.53 ¥30.79 76
Growth DCF ¥127.41 ¥199.14 ¥325.88 72
Growth-Adj P/E ¥28.07 ¥40.09 ¥52.12 68
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥127.25 ¥202.39 ¥335.36 38
Owner Earnings ¥60.50 ¥82.58 ¥121.66 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥74.68 ¥92.32 ¥113.97 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥79.21 ¥101.45 ¥127.42 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥84.14 ¥111.41 ¥141.06 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥90.59 ¥112.80 ¥142.51 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥94.27 ¥119.56 ¥153.79 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥97.59 ¥126.94 ¥165.23 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥15.69 ¥67.26 ¥91.90 54
Lynch FV ¥17.21 ¥24.59 ¥31.97 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥17.21 ¥24.59 ¥31.97 46
EPV ¥44.95 ¥47.11 ¥49.02 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥34.60 ¥46.14 ¥57.67 63
P/S Multiple ¥19.58 ¥26.10 ¥32.63 58
P/B Multiple ¥29.41 ¥39.22 ¥49.02 55
EV/EBIT ¥65.73 ¥76.74 ¥87.74 53
EV/EBITDA ¥59.49 ¥68.41 ¥77.33 54
EV/Revenue ¥50.99 ¥58.83 ¥66.66 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥15.45 ¥20.70 ¥30.90 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥127.41 ¥199.14 ¥325.88 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥25.77 ¥27.53 ¥30.79 76
ROIC Compounder ¥44.95 ¥47.11 ¥49.02 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥28.07 ¥40.09 ¥52.12 68

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (¥199.14) versus Asset-Based (¥20.70). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 46.3B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +33.7%
Net margin 27.2%
Return on equity 9.2%
Free cash flow 27.7B CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 25.0
More key figures
Operating margin 44.3%
EPS (TTM) ¥3.24
Dividend yield 6.4%
EPS growth (YoY) +82.6%
Net cash 127B CNY FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 60/100

Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31

Profitability 41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 31
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 99
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 99
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 79
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 92
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 7
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 3
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Wuliangye Yibin Co.,Ltd. manufactures and sells liquor and wine products and related auxiliary products under the Wuliangye brand in China. The company's Wuliangye products include eighth-generation Wuliangye, 39 -degree Wuliangye, classic Wuliangye, 29 -degree Wuliangye, etc.

Full company description

Wuliangye Yibin Co.,Ltd. manufactures and sells liquor and wine products and related auxiliary products under the Wuliangye brand in China. The company's Wuliangye products include eighth-generation Wuliangye, 39 -degree Wuliangye, classic Wuliangye, 29 -degree Wuliangye, etc. It also offers other alcoholic beverage products, such as Wuliangchun, Wuliangchun, Wuliangtequ, Jianzhuang, etc. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Xuzhou, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Wuliangye Yibin Co reported revenue of ¥40.5B in FY2025 versus ¥66.2B in FY2021, a compound −11.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥9.0B in FY2025, compounding −21.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
40.5B CNY
Latest YoY
−54.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−18.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
−6.7%
Avg. growth/yr (30Y)
+13.5%
Revenue −11.5%/yr
FY21 ¥66.2B
FY22 ¥74.0B
FY23 ¥83.3B
FY24 ¥89.2B
FY25 ¥40.5B
Net income −21.3%/yr
FY21 ¥23.4B
FY22 ¥26.7B
FY23 ¥30.2B
FY24 ¥31.9B
FY25 ¥9.0B

000858 screens 35% overvalued. Compare with Kweichow Moutai Co →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Wuliangye Yibin Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000858

Peer Group

Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 96 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −35% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 27% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 44% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 34% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 7.3% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 22.7× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.38× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 6.18× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 1.5× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 11.0× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.48× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 20
FUTURE 100 · sector 0
PAST 37 · sector 17
HEALTH 0 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 61

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 35/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Alcohol

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 ¥1,251 ¥1,238 -1%
Diageo plc DEON 1,487 MXN 1,239 MXN -17%
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 ¥110.50 ¥185.80 +68%
Pernod Ricard SA RI €65.24 €76.68 +18%
Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 ¥83.12 ¥149.17 +79%
Brown-Forman Corporation BFA $26.60 $28.15 +6%
United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR ₹1,376 ₹440.56 -68%
Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 0.4450 SGD 0.6900 SGD +55%
Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 ¥38.08 ¥27.82 -27%
Anhui Gujing Distillery Co 000596 ¥79.23 ¥128.26 +62%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Wuliangye Yibin Co (000858) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥48.44 versus a price of ¥74.48, about −35% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 000858?
Our model-based fair value for Wuliangye Yibin Co is ¥48.44 (as of Jul 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥74.48.
What is the quality score of 000858?
Wuliangye Yibin Co has a Quality Score of 60/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Wuliangye Yibin Co (000858)?
Wuliangye Yibin Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 46.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 12, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 000858?
The net profit margin of Wuliangye Yibin Co is about 27.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 27.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Wuliangye Yibin Co pay a dividend?
Wuliangye Yibin Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.36% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 12, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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