Nile Limited (530129) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Nile Limited ₹197, price ₹1,246, upside -84.2%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹332.58 – ₹2,707 · fair‑value band ₹133.62 – ₹255.59 · the ₹1,246 price screens above the ₹196.60 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Nile Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells lead and lead alloys in India. The company operates through two divisions, Lead and Wind Energy. It serves the manufacturers of lead acid batteries, PVC stabilizers, and lead-oxide. The company also generates electrical energy through its windmills located at Ramagiri, Andhra Pradesh.
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Nile Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells lead and lead alloys in India. The company operates through two divisions, Lead and Wind Energy. It serves the manufacturers of lead acid batteries, PVC stabilizers, and lead-oxide. The company also generates electrical energy through its windmills located at Ramagiri, Andhra Pradesh. Nile Limited was incorporated in 1984 and is based in Hyderabad, India.
Stock analysis
Nile Limited (530129) currently trades at ₹1,246, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹196.60, 84.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of ₹1,813 per share, and 23 of the 24 models we run sit above the ₹1,246 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹705.63, and 1 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ₹133.62 (bear) to ₹255.59 (bull), the price of ₹1,246 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Nile Limited reported revenue of ₹10.4B in FY2026 versus ₹7.0B in FY2022, a compound +10.3%/yr. Reported net income was ₹553M in FY2026, compounding +23.4%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹780M (≈ $8.1M) · P/E ratio 7.0 · P/S ratio 0.37 · EPS (TTM) ₹35.83 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 5.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.0% · Operating margin 3.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −84%, 530129 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹133.62Fair Value ₹196.60Bull ₹255.59
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹17.24 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.4% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+28.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+28.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.32.0% vs 7.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 7%
2026 sits 77% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−8.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −11.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 354 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+46.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0.0% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)2.1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)3.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−48.1% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nile Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/530129
Frequently asked questions
Is Nile Limited (530129) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹196.60 versus a price of ₹1,246, about −84% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 530129?
Our model-based fair value for Nile Limited is ₹196.60 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹1,246.
What is the quality score of 530129?
Nile Limited has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nile Limited (530129)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹196.60 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹133.62, optimistic scenario ₹255.59. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nile Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹196.60, about −84% upside versus a price of ₹1,246 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹133.62, optimistic scenario ₹255.59. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nile Limited (530129)?
Nile Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹5.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Nile Limited pay a dividend?
Nile Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.74% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nile Limited (530129)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nile Limited would have to grow free cash flow by -8.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 530129 use?
Our models discount Nile Limited at 12.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.99, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nile Limited that is -8.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nile Limited (530129) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nile Limited grew +14.2 % a year. The price currently implies -8.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nile Limited (530129) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nile Limited (-8.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nile Limited (530129)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.61 %: that much free cash flow Nile Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nile Limited (530129)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nile Limited it is ₹196.60 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ₹1,246. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nile Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 530129 trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹1,246, fair value ₹196.60, a gap of about −84% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 530129?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹1,246); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹196.60). For Nile Limited the two are ₹1,049 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nile Limited worth?
The market values Nile Limited at about ₹780M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ₹1,246; our models calculate a fair value of ₹196.60 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 530129?
Our models span a range for Nile Limited: cautious scenario ₹133.62, base ₹196.60, optimistic ₹255.59 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ₹1,246). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 530129?
Nile Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹196.60 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nile Limited (530129)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nile Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 530129 from its 52-week high?
Nile Limited trades at ₹1,246, about 36% below its 52-week high of ₹1,944 and 2% above the low of ₹1,225 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹196.60 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nile Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nile Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ₹1,246, calculated fair value ₹196.60 (−84%), Quality Score 63/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 530129 calculated?
We run Nile Limited through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹196.60, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Nile Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nile Limited (530129)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹1,246. Our model-based fair value is ₹196.60, about −84% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nile Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹255.59). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (₹133.62 to ₹255.59) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Nile Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Nile Limited (530129)?
The market capitalisation of Nile Limited is ₹780M (≈ $8.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nile Limited (530129)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nile Limited is 0.37 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nile Limited (530129)?
Earnings per share at Nile Limited are ₹35.83 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nile Limited (530129)?
The dividend yield of Nile Limited is 0.7% (payout 25.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nile Limited (530129)?
The net margin of Nile Limited is 5.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nile Limited (530129)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nile Limited is 17.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nile Limited (530129)?
The operating margin of Nile Limited is 3.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nile Limited (530129)?
Revenue at Nile Limited is growing −48.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Nile Limited (530129) carry?
The net debt of Nile Limited is ₹210M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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