Molina Healthcare, Inc (MOH) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $12.1B
Molina Healthcare, Inc
MOH · US
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from $200.60 to $199.31 (−0.6%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −17.6% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from $149.48 (bear) to $249.14 (bull), base $199.31. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 52/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $122.65 – $419.53 · fair‑value band $149.48 – $249.14 · the $191.88 price screens below the $199.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Molina Healthcare, Inc (MOH) currently trades at $191.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $199.31, implying the stock looks roughly 3.9% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Molina Healthcare, Inc generated revenue of $43.1B at a net margin of 0.4%. Revenue declined 4.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $298M. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $149.48 (bear case) to $249.14 (bull case); at $191.88, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at 4%, MOH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($351.01) versus Asset-Based ($52.33). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Molina Healthcare, Inc. provides managed healthcare services to low-income families and individuals under the Medicaid and Medicare programs and through the state insurance marketplaces in the United States. It operates in four segments: Medicaid, Medicare, Marketplace, and Other.
Full company description
Molina Healthcare, Inc. provides managed healthcare services to low-income families and individuals under the Medicaid and Medicare programs and through the state insurance marketplaces in the United States. It operates in four segments: Medicaid, Medicare, Marketplace, and Other. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Long Beach, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Molina Healthcare, Inc reported revenue of $45.4B in FY2025 versus $27.8B in FY2021, a compound +13.1%/yr. Reported net income was $472M in FY2025, compounding −8.0%/yr from FY2021.
Watch MOH: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Notable healthcare headlines for the week: Eli Lilly, Molina Healthcare, and Roche in focus
- Molina Healthcare (MOH) Plans Big 2027 ACA Pullback After Profit Pressure
Peer Group
Healthcare Plans · 15 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Healthcare Plans median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Healthcare Plans stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| UnitedHealth Group UNH | $423.38 | $292.06 | -31% |
| CVS Health Corporation CVS | $104.15 | $42.54 | -59% |
| Elevance Health, Inc ELV | $372.85 | $431.40 | +16% |
| The Cigna Group CI | $304.50 | $495.42 | +63% |
| Humana Inc HUM | $400.00 | $127.61 | -68% |
| Centene Corporation CNC | $66.61 | $111.96 | +68% |
| Oscar Health, Inc OSCR | $29.10 | $58.20 | +100% |
| Alignment Healthcare, Inc ALHC | $20.60 | $2.37 | -88% |
| Progyny, Inc PGNY | $31.93 | $16.44 | -49% |
| Bradsaúde S.A SAUD3 | R$15.35 | R$20.75 | +35% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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