Nestlé India Limited (500790) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Nestlé India Limited ₹196, price ₹1,304, upside -85.0%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹777.95 – ₹1,540 · fair‑value band ₹107.22 – ₹324.75 · the ₹1,304 price screens above the ₹195.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Nestl?? India Limited manufactures and sells food products in India. The company provides various prepared dishes and cooking aids; chocolates and confectionery products; milk and nutrition products; and coffee and beverages. It also offers vending and food services, such as beverage systems and food service products. The company also exports its products.
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Nestl?? India Limited manufactures and sells food products in India. The company provides various prepared dishes and cooking aids; chocolates and confectionery products; milk and nutrition products; and coffee and beverages. It also offers vending and food services, such as beverage systems and food service products. The company also exports its products. Nestl?? India Limited was incorporated in 1959 and is headquartered in Gurgaon, India. Nestl?? India Limited is a subsidiary of NESTL?? S.A.
Stock analysis
Nestlé India Limited (500790) currently trades at ₹1,304, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹195.75, 85.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹270.95 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the ₹1,304 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at ₹94.20, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ₹107.22 (bear) to ₹324.75 (bull), the price of ₹1,304 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Other sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Nestlé India Limited reported revenue of ₹202B in FY2024 versus ₹134B in FY2020, a compound +10.9%/yr. Reported net income was ₹32.1B in FY2024, compounding +11.4%/yr from FY2020.
Key figures
Market cap ₹2.5T (≈ $26.1B) · P/E ratio 78.7 · P/S ratio 12.5 · EPS (TTM) ₹15.32 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 15.9% · Return on equity 7,079% · Return on assets (EBIT) 39.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Other peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −85%, 500790 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (₹14.43 to ₹494.56). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ₹107.22Fair Value ₹195.75Bull ₹324.75
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2024 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹15.32 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.53/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−17.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.3%
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−38.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−39.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21% → 22%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 32.0%/yr over ~6Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+71.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +64.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other · 106 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside−44.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets0.0% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)15.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)0.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)78.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.65× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF2.8× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 25
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)13· sector 24
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nestlé India Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/500790
Frequently asked questions
Is Nestlé India Limited (500790) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹195.75 versus a price of ₹1,304, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 500790?
Our model-based fair value for Nestlé India Limited is ₹195.75 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹1,304.
What is the quality score of 500790?
Nestlé India Limited has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nestlé India Limited (500790)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹195.75 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹107.22, optimistic scenario ₹324.75. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nestlé India Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹195.75, about −85% upside versus a price of ₹1,304 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹107.22, optimistic scenario ₹324.75. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Nestlé India Limited pay a dividend?
Nestlé India Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.67% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nestlé India Limited (500790)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nestlé India Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +71.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 500790 use?
Our models discount Nestlé India Limited at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nestlé India Limited that is +71.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nestlé India Limited (500790) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nestlé India Limited grew +10.3 % a year. The price currently implies +71.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nestlé India Limited (500790) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nestlé India Limited (+71.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nestlé India Limited (500790)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.37 %: that much free cash flow Nestlé India Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nestlé India Limited (500790)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nestlé India Limited it is ₹195.75 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ₹1,304. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nestlé India Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 500790 trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹1,304, fair value ₹195.75, a gap of about −85% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 500790?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹1,304); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹195.75). For Nestlé India Limited the two are ₹1,108 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nestlé India Limited worth?
The market values Nestlé India Limited at about ₹2.5T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ₹1,304; our models calculate a fair value of ₹195.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 500790?
Our models span a range for Nestlé India Limited: cautious scenario ₹107.22, base ₹195.75, optimistic ₹324.75 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ₹1,304). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 500790?
Nestlé India Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 78.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹195.75 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nestlé India Limited (500790)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nestlé India Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 500790 from its 52-week high?
Nestlé India Limited trades at ₹1,304, about 15% below its 52-week high of ₹1,540 and 13% above the low of ₹1,158 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹195.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nestlé India Limited?
From the same area (Other) we also value 542772, 590024, Indiabulls Real Estate Limited, 542851, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nestlé India Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ₹1,304, calculated fair value ₹195.75 (−85%), Quality Score 59/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 500790 calculated?
We run Nestlé India Limited through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹195.75, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Nestlé India Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nestlé India Limited (500790)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹1,304. Our model-based fair value is ₹195.75, about −85% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nestlé India Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹324.75). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (₹107.22 to ₹324.75). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Nestlé India Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Nestlé India Limited (500790)?
The market capitalisation of Nestlé India Limited is ₹2.5T (≈ $26.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nestlé India Limited (500790)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nestlé India Limited is 12.5 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nestlé India Limited (500790)?
Earnings per share at Nestlé India Limited are ₹15.32 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 78.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nestlé India Limited (500790)?
The dividend yield of Nestlé India Limited is 0.7% (payout 57.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nestlé India Limited (500790)?
The net margin of Nestlé India Limited is 15.9% (fiscal year 2024). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nestlé India Limited (500790)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nestlé India Limited is 7,079% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nestlé India Limited (500790)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nestlé India Limited is 39.8% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
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