Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A (603278) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A stock ¥8.22, price ¥19.52, upside -57.9%, quality 39 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥5.00 – ¥19.52 · fair‑value band ¥7.62 – ¥8.72 · the ¥19.52 price screens above the ¥8.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 30, 2026.
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Shandong Daye Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, production, and sales of bead wires, steel cords, and hose steel, aluminum-clad steel and rope wires in China.
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It also provides steel nails, aluminum products, metallurgical rollers and accessories, textile machinery and accessories, auto parts, and motorcycle accessories. In addition, it provides spraying, metal surface treatment, and hardening, anti-corrosion.
Further, it engages in the sales of steel, wire, and aluminum profiles; import and export of goods; investment, construction, and production and electricity sales of solar energy projects.
The company's products are used in vehicle tires, truck tires, engineering tires, aviation tires and other tire products, and other rubber products, as well as passenger vehicles. Shandong Daye Co., Ltd. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Zhucheng, China.
Stock analysis
Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A (603278) currently trades at ¥19.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥8.22, 57.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of ¥4.11 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the ¥19.52 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥2.71, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥7.62 (bear) to ¥8.72 (bull), the price of ¥19.52 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A reported revenue of 5.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 5.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound −0.3%/yr. Reported net income was −13.5M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 6.7B CNY (≈ $1.0B) Small · P/S ratio 1.33 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.3500 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin −2.4% · Return on equity −6.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.8% · Operating margin −1.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 16 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 142% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at −58%, 603278 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.3400 to ¥8.71). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear¥7.62Fair Value ¥8.22Bull¥8.72
Price ¥19.52 · Upside -57.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.30/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.0% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.7% (2020) → 2.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 259 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−57.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−0.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−2.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−1.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)1.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.28× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
P/B3.40× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.34× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA19.7× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)6· sector 65
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)86· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)23· sector 25
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603278
Frequently asked questions
Is Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A (603278) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥8.22 versus a price of ¥19.52, about −58% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603278?
Our model-based fair value for Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A is ¥8.22 (as of Oct 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥19.52.
What is the quality score of 603278?
Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A (603278)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥8.22 (as of Oct 30, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥7.62, optimistic scenario ¥8.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥8.22, about −58% upside versus a price of ¥19.52 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥7.62, optimistic scenario ¥8.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A (603278)?
Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 30, 2026).
Does Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A pay a dividend?
Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A currently shows a dividend yield of 1.14% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 30, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A (603278)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A it is ¥8.22 per share (as of Oct 30, 2026), against a price of ¥19.52. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 30, 2026, 603278 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥19.52, fair value ¥8.22, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603278?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥19.52); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥8.22). For Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A the two are ¥11.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A worth?
The market values Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A at about 6.7B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 30, 2026). Per share that is ¥19.52; our models calculate a fair value of ¥8.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603278?
Our models span a range for Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A: cautious scenario ¥7.62, base ¥8.22, optimistic ¥8.72 per share (as of Oct 30, 2026, price ¥19.52). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A (603278)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A (as of Oct 30, 2026): return on equity −6.0%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603278 from its 52-week high?
Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A trades at ¥19.52, at its 52-week high of ¥19.52 and 142% above the low of ¥8.08 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥8.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ATI Inc, Carpenter Technology Corporation, Mueller Industries, Inc, Bharat Forge Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 30, 2026: price ¥19.52, calculated fair value ¥8.22 (−58%), Quality Score 39/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603278 calculated?
We run Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥8.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A (603278)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was ¥19.52. Our model-based fair value is ¥8.22, about −58% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥8.72). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The models converge in a tight band (¥7.62 to ¥8.72), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Key figures of Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A
How large is the market capitalisation of Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A (603278)?
The market capitalisation of Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A is 6.7B CNY (≈ $1.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A (603278)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A is 1.33 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A (603278)?
Earnings per share at Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A are ¥−0.3500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A (603278)?
The dividend yield of Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A is 1.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A (603278)?
The net margin of Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A is −2.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A (603278)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A is −6.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A (603278)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A is −0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A (603278)?
The operating margin of Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A is −1.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A (603278)?
Revenue at Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A is growing +1.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A (603278)?
Earnings per share at Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A are growing −50.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A (603278) generate?
The free cash flow of Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A is −302M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A (603278) carry?
The net debt of Shandong Daye Co Ltd Class A is 1.2B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 30, 2026