Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd (603869) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd ¥1.66, price ¥8.60, upside -80.7%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.29 – ¥14.78 · fair‑value band ¥1.25 – ¥2.08 · the ¥8.60 price screens above the ¥1.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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ENC Digital Technology Co., Ltd engages in the construction and operation of building social security prevention and control systems in China. The company offers enterprise security, park security, urban safety, and intelligent integration solutions. It also provides government, enterprise, and user services.
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ENC Digital Technology Co., Ltd engages in the construction and operation of building social security prevention and control systems in China. The company offers enterprise security, park security, urban safety, and intelligent integration solutions. It also provides government, enterprise, and user services. The company was formerly known as Beibu Gulf Tourism Corporation Limited. ENC Digital Technology Co., Ltd was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Stock analysis
Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd (603869) currently trades at ¥8.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.66, 80.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥5.13 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the ¥8.60 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥1.08, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥1.25 (bear) to ¥2.08 (bull), the price of ¥8.60 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd reported revenue of 681M CNY in FY2025 versus 937M CNY in FY2021, a compound −7.7%/yr. Reported net income was 36.9M CNY in FY2025, compounding +13.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 4.2B CNY (≈ $634M) · P/E ratio 107.5 · P/S ratio 5.83 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0800 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 5.4% · Return on equity 0.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 44% fair-value upside, at −81%, 603869 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.1300 to ¥5.13). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ¥1.25Fair Value ¥1.66Bull ¥2.08
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0416 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.14/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.4% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ −15.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13.3% vs −11.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 91% above its own trend.
Compare Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Information Technology Services · 464 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−80.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)0.9% · Below median
Return on assets0.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)5.2% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)−13.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−11.2% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.05× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)107.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.13× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)6.36× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA28.4× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 43
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 30
PAST (return on equity)4· sector 35
HEALTH (low debt)97· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)6· sector 43
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd (603869) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.66 versus a price of ¥8.60, about −81% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603869?
Our model-based fair value for Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd is ¥1.66 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥8.60.
What is the quality score of 603869?
Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd (603869)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥1.66 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.25, optimistic scenario ¥2.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥1.66, about −81% upside versus a price of ¥8.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.25, optimistic scenario ¥2.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd (603869)?
Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 668M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd pay a dividend?
Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.29% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd (603869)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd it is ¥1.66 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥8.60. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 603869 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥8.60, fair value ¥1.66, a gap of about −81% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603869?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥8.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥1.66). For Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd the two are ¥6.94 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd worth?
The market values Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd at about 4.2B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥8.60; our models calculate a fair value of ¥1.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603869?
Our models span a range for Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd: cautious scenario ¥1.25, base ¥1.66, optimistic ¥2.08 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥8.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 603869?
Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 107.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥1.66 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 6.4, EV/EBITDA 28.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd (603869)?
Balance-sheet figures for Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 0.9%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603869 from its 52-week high?
Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd trades at ¥8.60, about 24% below its 52-week high of ¥11.27 and 16% above the low of ¥7.44 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥1.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value International Business Machines Corporation, Accenture plc, Tata Consultancy Services Limited, Infosys Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥8.60, calculated fair value ¥1.66 (−81%), Quality Score 52/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603869 calculated?
We run Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥1.66, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd (603869)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was ¥8.60. Our model-based fair value is ¥1.66, about −81% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.08). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd (603869)?
The market capitalisation of Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd is 4.2B CNY (≈ $634M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd (603869)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd is 5.83 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd (603869)?
Earnings per share at Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd are ¥0.0800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 107.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd (603869)?
The dividend yield of Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd is 0.3% (payout 31.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd (603869)?
The net margin of Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd is 5.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd (603869)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd is 0.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd (603869)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd is −0.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd (603869)?
The operating margin of Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd is −13.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd (603869)?
Revenue at Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd is growing −11.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd (603869)?
Earnings per share at Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd are growing −35.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd (603869) generate?
The free cash flow of Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd is −192M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd (603869) hold?
Beibu Gulf Tourism Corp Ltd holds more cash than debt, 866M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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