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Noah Holdings (6686) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Noah Holdings HK$25.47, price HK$12.80, upside +99.0%, quality 73 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 28, 2026
Noah Holdings
6686 · HKClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value HK$25.47 · Strongly undervalued (+99.0%)
✓Quality 73/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −4.6 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 22.5% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 68/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
51‑month range HK$9.33 – HK$21.11 · fair‑value band HK$24.91 – HK$30.90 · the HK$12.80 price screens below the HK$25.47 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
Company profile
Noah Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a wealth and asset management service provider with the focus on investment and asset allocation services for high net worth individuals and corporate entities in Mainland of China, Hong Kong, and internationally.
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Noah Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a wealth and asset management service provider with the focus on investment and asset allocation services for high net worth individuals and corporate entities in Mainland of China, Hong Kong, and internationally. It operates through Domestic Public Securities, Domestic Asset Management, Domestic Insurance, Overseas Wealth Management, Overseas Asset Management, and Overseas Insurance and Comprehensive Services segments. The company offers mutual fund products, which are publicly-raised, public securities investment funds, including money market funds; private secondary products; private equity products; investor education; trust services; and insurance products by referring clients, as well as individual whole life insurance, participating insurance, and individual health insurance products. It also provides domestic and overseas private equity, FOFs, public securities, real estate, and multi-strategy and other investments, as well as manages feeder funds. Noah Holdings Limited was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Singapore.
Stock analysis
Noah Holdings (6686) currently trades at HK$12.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$25.47, implying the stock looks roughly 49.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$40.44 per share, and 10 of the 10 models we run sit above the HK$12.80 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$15.81, and 0 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$24.91 (bear) to HK$30.90 (bull), the price of HK$12.80 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Noah Holdings reported revenue of 2.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 4.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound −11.7%/yr. Reported net income was 559M CNY in FY2025, compounding −19.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$4.7B (≈ $595M) · P/E ratio 6.9 · P/S ratio 1.47 · EPS (TTM) HK$1.90 · Net margin 21.4% · Return on equity 6.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.2% · Operating margin 34.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at 99%, 6686 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$24.91
Fair Value HK$25.47
Bull HK$30.90
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Growth DCF
HK$38.87
HK$45.57
HK$55.95
77
Residual Income
HK$25.06
HK$25.67
HK$27.03
76
Owner Earnings
HK$30.91
HK$35.79
HK$43.98
75
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings
HK$30.91
HK$35.79
HK$43.98
75
5Y P/E Exit
HK$33.98
HK$41.17
HK$49.81
69
10Y P/E Exit
HK$35.67
HK$40.44
HK$44.86
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
HK$12.94
HK$15.81
HK$17.79
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
HK$18.55
HK$24.73
HK$30.91
63
P/B Multiple
HK$24.26
HK$32.34
HK$40.43
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
HK$16.73
HK$22.41
HK$33.45
51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
HK$38.87
HK$45.57
HK$55.95
77
Rev-Margin DCF
HK$31.47
HK$37.44
HK$44.99
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
HK$25.06
HK$25.67
HK$27.03
76
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
73/100
Of which business quality 72 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17
Profitability
38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
57
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
92
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
92
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
38
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
13
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
49
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.3%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−45.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−45.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.38% → 30%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.5% a year for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−2.6%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−0.9%
Projected 2028 (sales)−0.6%
Projected 2029 (sales)−0.2%
Projected 2030 (sales)+0.2%
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Context: sector, industry, market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackstone Inc BX | $112.09 | $52.29 | −53% |
| KKR & Co KKR | $93.18 | $29.26 | −69% |
| Brookfield Corporation BN | $36.87 | $13.45 | −64% |
| Apollo Global Management, Inc APO | $116.06 | $197.23 | +70% |
| State Street Corporation STT | $177.78 | $139.37 | −22% |
| Ameriprise Financial, Inc AMP | $494.82 | $595.40 | +20% |
| Ares Management Corporation ARES | $122.01 | $103.68 | −15% |
| Northern Trust Corporation NTRS | $175.73 | $123.42 | −30% |
| Raymond James Financial, Inc RJF | $161.16 | $317.27 | +97% |
| Exor N.V EXO | €68.10 | €136.20 | +100% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Noah Holdings (6686) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$25.47 versus a price of HK$12.80, about +99% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 6686?
Our model-based fair value for Noah Holdings is HK$25.47 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$12.80.
What is the quality score of 6686?
Noah Holdings has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Noah Holdings (6686)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$25.47 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$24.91, optimistic scenario HK$30.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Noah Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$25.47, about +99% upside versus a price of HK$12.80 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$24.91, optimistic scenario HK$30.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Noah Holdings (6686)?
Noah Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Noah Holdings (6686)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Noah Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -4.6 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 6686 use?
Our models discount Noah Holdings at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.81, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Noah Holdings that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Noah Holdings (6686) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Noah Holdings grew -4.6 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Noah Holdings (6686) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Noah Holdings (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Noah Holdings (6686)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 23.52 %: that much free cash flow Noah Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Noah Holdings (6686)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Noah Holdings it is HK$25.47 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of HK$12.80. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Noah Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, 6686 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$12.80, fair value HK$25.47, a gap of about +99% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 6686?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$12.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$25.47). For Noah Holdings the two are HK$12.67 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Noah Holdings worth?
The market values Noah Holdings at about HK$4.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is HK$12.80; our models calculate a fair value of HK$25.47 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 6686?
Our models span a range for Noah Holdings: cautious scenario HK$24.91, base HK$25.47, optimistic HK$30.90 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price HK$12.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 6686 from its 52-week high?
Noah Holdings trades at HK$12.80, about 36% below its 52-week high of HK$19.99 and at the low of HK$12.80 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$25.47 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Noah Holdings?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, KKR & Co, Brookfield Corporation, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Noah Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price HK$12.80, calculated fair value HK$25.47 (+99%), Quality Score 73/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 6686 calculated?
We run Noah Holdings through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$25.47, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Noah Holdings currently trades 50 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Noah Holdings (6686)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$12.80. Our model-based fair value is HK$25.47, about +99% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Noah Holdings right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (73/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$24.91). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Noah Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Noah Holdings (6686)?
The market capitalisation of Noah Holdings is HK$4.7B (≈ $595M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Noah Holdings (6686)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Noah Holdings is 6.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Noah Holdings (6686)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Noah Holdings is 1.47 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Noah Holdings (6686)?
Earnings per share at Noah Holdings are HK$1.90 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Noah Holdings (6686)?
The net margin of Noah Holdings is 21.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Noah Holdings (6686)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Noah Holdings is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Noah Holdings (6686)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Noah Holdings is 8.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Noah Holdings (6686)?
The operating margin of Noah Holdings is 34.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Noah Holdings (6686)?
Revenue at Noah Holdings is growing −1.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Noah Holdings (6686)?
Earnings per share at Noah Holdings are growing +31.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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