Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd (688039) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd ¥3.45, price ¥34.12, upside -89.9%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value ¥3.45 · Strongly overvalued (−90%)
!Quality 58/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y −1.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -26.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers(4/12)
!Narrow moat16/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥17.35 – ¥67.56 · fair‑value band ¥3.03 – ¥4.03 · the ¥34.12 price screens above the ¥3.45 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, production, and sales of intelligent video technology and overall solutions in China. The company smart cockpit products, including immersive 5D experience, multi screen interaction, AR-HUD and holography, in-car 3D sound, and remote overwatch.
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Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, production, and sales of intelligent video technology and overall solutions in China. The company smart cockpit products, including immersive 5D experience, multi screen interaction, AR-HUD and holography, in-car 3D sound, and remote overwatch. It also provides arcvideo encoder and decoder, VOD, and AI enhancement; and cloud services, including cloud VOD, live streaming, program director, converge, and editing, as well as graphic and text packing and playback engine; and edge video compression. Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co., Ltd. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.
Stock analysis
Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd (688039) currently trades at ¥34.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.45, implying the stock looks roughly 889.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥6.39 per share, and 0 of the 9 models we run sit above the ¥34.12 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥0.4000, and 9 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥3.03 (bear) to ¥4.03 (bull), the price of ¥34.12 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd reported revenue of 349M CNY in FY2025 versus 418M CNY in FY2021, a compound −4.4%/yr. Reported net income was −88.7M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 3.8B CNY (≈ $565M) · P/S ratio 13.2 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.8600 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin −25.4% · Return on equity −9.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.0% · Operating margin −20.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 66% fair-value upside, at −90%, 688039 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.4000 to ¥6.39). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ¥3.03Fair Value ¥3.45Bull ¥4.03
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.26/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
27.9% (2020) → −33.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Information Technology Services · 481 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside−90% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−27% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−21% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth69% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.54× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.59× · Pricier than median
P/FCF79.2× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 43
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 31
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 35
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)1· sector 41
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/688039
Frequently asked questions
Is Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd (688039) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥3.45 versus a price of ¥34.12, about −90% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 688039?
Our model-based fair value for Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd is ¥3.45 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥34.12.
What is the quality score of 688039?
Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd (688039)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥3.45 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥3.03, optimistic scenario ¥4.03. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥3.45, about −90% upside versus a price of ¥34.12 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥3.03, optimistic scenario ¥4.03. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd (688039)?
Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 356M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.07% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd (688039)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 688039 use?
Our models discount Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.80, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd (688039) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd grew -1.0 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd (688039) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd (688039)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.19 %: that much free cash flow Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd (688039)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd it is ¥3.45 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥34.12. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 688039 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥34.12, fair value ¥3.45, a gap of about −90% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 688039?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥34.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥3.45). For Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd the two are ¥30.67 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd worth?
The market values Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd at about 3.8B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥34.12; our models calculate a fair value of ¥3.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 688039?
Our models span a range for Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥3.03, base ¥3.45, optimistic ¥4.03 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥34.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd (688039)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −9.9%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 688039 from its 52-week high?
Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd trades at ¥34.12, about 52% below its 52-week high of ¥70.97 and 15% above the low of ¥29.68 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥3.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value International Business Machines Corporation, Accenture plc, Tata Consultancy Services Limited, Infosys Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥34.12, calculated fair value ¥3.45 (−90%), Quality Score 58/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 688039 calculated?
We run Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥3.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd (688039)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥34.12. Our model-based fair value is ¥3.45, about −90% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥4.03). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd (688039)?
The market capitalisation of Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd is 3.8B CNY (≈ $565M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd (688039)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd is 13.2 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd (688039)?
Earnings per share at Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd are ¥−0.8600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd (688039)?
The dividend yield of Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd is 0.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd (688039)?
The net margin of Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd is −25.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd (688039)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd is −9.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd (688039)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd is −6.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd (688039)?
The operating margin of Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd is −20.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd (688039)?
Revenue at Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd is growing +68.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd (688039) carry?
The net debt of Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co Ltd is 8.9M CNY (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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