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HCR Co Ltd (688500) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of HCR Co Ltd ¥7.61, price ¥30.70, upside -75.2%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Technology · CN · ISIN CNE1000041Y4

HC Thin data Sep 24, 2026

HCR Co Ltd

688500 · SHG

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value ¥7.61 · Strongly overvalued (−75%)
✓Quality 65/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +7.9 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -9.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (5/11)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥89.30 ¥14.03 Fair Value ¥7.61 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥14.03 – ¥89.30 · fair‑value band ¥5.99 – ¥9.60 · the ¥30.70 price screens above the ¥7.61 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

HCR Co., Ltd. provides data intelligence solutions in China.

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HCR Co., Ltd. provides data intelligence solutions in China. The company offers data intelligence, data insight, and data implementation; business consulting services, including IOB industry research, Entry Compass market entry, CI radar competitive intelligence, IPO consulting service, business due diligence, and background check; ADPre which collect test results with a large amount of samples covering the entire country; and ADTracker, helps track brand performance and also separately identifies the role of each ad/event in the overall effect of brand performance improvement. It also provides consumer insight; channel research; and innovative research solutions. In addition, the company offers ECRM, which gains insight into the elements that drive customer loyalty and the relationships between the various elements from a new perspective; and ECSM that summarizes customer needs by introducing the results of the latest demand research theory, and helps businesses measure, analyze, and interpret customer satisfaction from the perspective of demand. It serves automobile, internet technology, consumer durable, healthcare, industrial sector, tourism, public affairs, telecom, retail, FMCG, finance, tobacco, environmental protection, and education industries. HCR Co., Ltd. was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Stock analysis

HCR Co Ltd (688500) currently trades at ¥30.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.61, implying the stock looks roughly 303.4% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ¥7.27 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the ¥30.70 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥6.45, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: ¥5.99 (bear) to ¥9.60 (bull), the price of ¥30.70 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

HCR Co Ltd reported revenue of 505M CNY in FY2025 versus 452M CNY in FY2021, a compound +2.8%/yr. Reported net income was −41.5M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 2.9B CNY (≈ $436M) · P/S ratio 5.48 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.6900 · Net margin −8.2% · Return on equity −6.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.3% · Operating margin −29.8% · Revenue (TTM) 533M CNY.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 65% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 53% fair-value upside, at −75%, 688500 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥5.99 Fair Value ¥7.61 Bull ¥9.60
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF ¥5.83 ¥7.41 ¥9.62 82
Growth DCF ¥5.83 ¥7.29 ¥9.26 80
5Y Revenue Exit ¥5.60 ¥7.27 ¥9.44 74
All 8 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥5.83 ¥7.41 ¥9.62 82
5Y Revenue Exit ¥5.60 ¥7.27 ¥9.44 74
10Y Revenue Exit ¥5.58 ¥7.07 ¥9.13 68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM n/a n/a ¥0.0100 65
Multiples
EV/Revenue ¥5.57 ¥6.75 ¥7.92 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥4.82 ¥6.45 ¥9.63 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥5.83 ¥7.29 ¥9.26 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥5.60 ¥7.27 ¥9.29 74

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 65/100

Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 18

Profitability 24
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 73
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 92
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 5
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 3
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 76
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 48/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.3% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
11.1% (2020) → −9.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+36.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +34.0% a year for the price.

688500 screens 303% overvalued. Compare with International Business Machines Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Information Technology Services · 492 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −75% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −30% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 37% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.00× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.60× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.82× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 19.0× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 46
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 30
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 35
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 43

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Information Technology Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
International Business Machines Corporation IBM $227.06 $186.56 −18%
Accenture plc ACN $176.11 $305.06 +73%
Tata Consultancy Services Limited TCS ₹2,082 ₹2,993 +44%
Infosys Limited INFY ₹1,000 ₹1,689 +69%
HCL Technologies Limited HCLTECH ₹1,258 ₹1,926 +53%
Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation CTSH $57.33 $138.62 +142%
Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc BR $163.77 $159.88 −2%
Fidelity National Information Services, Inc FIS $35.41 $32.72 −8%
Wipro Limited WIPRO ₹164.02 ₹287.86 +76%
CDW Corporation CDW $135.43 $165.54 +22%

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HCR Co Ltd · Fair Value
¥7.61 −303%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HCR Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/688500

Frequently asked questions

Is HCR Co Ltd (688500) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥7.61 versus a price of ¥30.70, about −75% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 688500?
Our model-based fair value for HCR Co Ltd is ¥7.61 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥30.70.
What is the quality score of 688500?
HCR Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HCR Co Ltd (688500)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥7.61 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥5.99, optimistic scenario ¥9.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HCR Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥7.61, about −75% upside versus a price of ¥30.70 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥5.99, optimistic scenario ¥9.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HCR Co Ltd (688500)?
HCR Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 533M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into HCR Co Ltd (688500)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, HCR Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +36.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 688500 use?
Our models discount HCR Co Ltd at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.45, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For HCR Co Ltd that is +36.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has HCR Co Ltd (688500) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at HCR Co Ltd grew +7.9 % a year. The price currently implies +36.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of HCR Co Ltd (688500) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into HCR Co Ltd (+36.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of HCR Co Ltd (688500)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.01 %: that much free cash flow HCR Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of HCR Co Ltd (688500)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HCR Co Ltd it is ¥7.61 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥30.70. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HCR Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 688500 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥30.70, fair value ¥7.61, a gap of about −75% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 688500?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥30.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥7.61). For HCR Co Ltd the two are ¥23.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HCR Co Ltd worth?
The market values HCR Co Ltd at about 2.9B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥30.70; our models calculate a fair value of ¥7.61 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 688500?
Our models span a range for HCR Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥5.99, base ¥7.61, optimistic ¥9.60 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥30.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of HCR Co Ltd (688500)?
Balance-sheet figures for HCR Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −6.7%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 688500 from its 52-week high?
HCR Co Ltd trades at ¥30.70, about 65% below its 52-week high of ¥86.80 and 12% above the low of ¥27.46 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥7.61 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HCR Co Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value International Business Machines Corporation, Accenture plc, Tata Consultancy Services Limited, Infosys Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HCR Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥30.70, calculated fair value ¥7.61 (−75%), Quality Score 65/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 688500 calculated?
We run HCR Co Ltd through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥7.61, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. HCR Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HCR Co Ltd (688500)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was ¥30.70. Our model-based fair value is ¥7.61, about −75% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HCR Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥9.60). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of HCR Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of HCR Co Ltd (688500)?
The market capitalisation of HCR Co Ltd is 2.9B CNY (≈ $436M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HCR Co Ltd (688500)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HCR Co Ltd is 5.48 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HCR Co Ltd (688500)?
Earnings per share at HCR Co Ltd are ¥−0.6900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of HCR Co Ltd (688500)?
The net margin of HCR Co Ltd is −8.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HCR Co Ltd (688500)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HCR Co Ltd is −6.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HCR Co Ltd (688500)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HCR Co Ltd is −6.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HCR Co Ltd (688500)?
The operating margin of HCR Co Ltd is −29.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HCR Co Ltd (688500)?
Revenue at HCR Co Ltd is growing +36.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HCR Co Ltd (688500)?
Earnings per share at HCR Co Ltd are growing −56.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does HCR Co Ltd (688500) hold?
HCR Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 280M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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