Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A (688613) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A ¥2.38, price ¥20.40, upside -88.3%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value ¥2.38 · Strongly overvalued (−88%)
!Quality 60/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y +4.0 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·0.15% dividend yield
!Trails peers(4/13)
!Narrow moat22/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥11.70 – ¥131.91 · fair‑value band ¥2.02 – ¥2.86 · the ¥20.40 price screens above the ¥2.38 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Allgens Medical Technology CO., LTD. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of biomedical materials and related medical device products in China. The company offers collagen artificial bone repair materials to agents and terminal hospitals.
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Allgens Medical Technology CO., LTD. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of biomedical materials and related medical device products in China. The company offers collagen artificial bone repair materials to agents and terminal hospitals. Its products include Tooth Shell for the treatment of oral or plastic surgery and BonGold for the treatment of orthopedic bone defect repair. The company was founded in 2004 and is based in Beijing, China.
Stock analysis
Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A (688613) currently trades at ¥20.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.38, implying the stock looks roughly 756.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥7.02 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥20.40 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.5000, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥2.02 (bear) to ¥2.86 (bull), the price of ¥20.40 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A reported revenue of 224M CNY in FY2025 versus 236M CNY in FY2021, a compound −1.4%/yr. Reported net income was 13.2M CNY in FY2025, compounding −42.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 2.7B CNY (≈ $401M) · P/E ratio 204.0 · P/S ratio 12.0 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.1000 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 5.9% · Return on equity 0.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at −88%, 688613 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.2200 to ¥7.02). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ¥2.02Fair Value ¥2.38Bull ¥2.86
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0510 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−35.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−35.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.56% → 6%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+53.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Devices · 358 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside−87% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Below median
Return on assets0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)−3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth15% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Devices median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)204.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.50× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)9.35× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF30.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA89.5× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 3
FUTURE (revenue growth)74· sector 31
PAST (return on equity)3· sector 6
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)3· sector 37
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/688613
Frequently asked questions
Is Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A (688613) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥2.38 versus a price of ¥20.40, about −88% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 688613?
Our model-based fair value for Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A is ¥2.38 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥20.40.
What is the quality score of 688613?
Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A (688613)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥2.38 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥2.02, optimistic scenario ¥2.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥2.38, about −88% upside versus a price of ¥20.40 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥2.02, optimistic scenario ¥2.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A (688613)?
Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 230M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A pay a dividend?
Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.15% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A (688613)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A would have to grow free cash flow by +53.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.0 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 688613 use?
Our models discount Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.58, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A that is +53.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A (688613) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A grew +4.0 % a year. The price currently implies +53.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A (688613) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A (+53.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A (688613)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.39 %: that much free cash flow Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A (688613)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A it is ¥2.38 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of ¥20.40. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 688613 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥20.40, fair value ¥2.38, a gap of about −88% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 688613?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥20.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥2.38). For Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A the two are ¥18.02 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A worth?
The market values Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A at about 2.7B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is ¥20.40; our models calculate a fair value of ¥2.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 688613?
Our models span a range for Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A: cautious scenario ¥2.02, base ¥2.38, optimistic ¥2.86 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price ¥20.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 688613?
Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 204.0 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥2.38 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 9.3, EV/EBITDA 89.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A (688613)?
Balance-sheet figures for Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 0.7%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 688613 from its 52-week high?
Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A trades at ¥20.40, about 32% below its 52-week high of ¥29.88 and 34% above the low of ¥15.23 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥2.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Abbott Laboratories,, Stryker Corporation, Medtronic plc, Boston Scientific Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price ¥20.40, calculated fair value ¥2.38 (−88%), Quality Score 60/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 688613 calculated?
We run Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥2.38, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A (688613)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥20.40. Our model-based fair value is ¥2.38, about −88% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.86). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A
How large is the market capitalisation of Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A (688613)?
The market capitalisation of Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A is 2.7B CNY (≈ $401M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A (688613)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A is 12.0 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A (688613)?
Earnings per share at Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A are ¥0.1000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 204.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A (688613)?
The dividend yield of Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A is 0.1% (payout 30.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A (688613)?
The net margin of Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A is 5.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A (688613)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A is 0.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A (688613)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A is 3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A (688613)?
The operating margin of Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A is −3.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A (688613)?
Revenue at Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A is growing +14.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A (688613) hold?
Allgens Medical Technology Co. Ltd. A holds more cash than debt, 104M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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